NDP should be 'very concerned' about strategic voting as progressive voters shift to Liberals, say pollsters

With progressive voters shifting in large numbers to the Liberals to prevent a Pierre Poilievre-led Conservative government, according to the polls, the New Democratic Party should be "very concerned" about the potential impact of strategic voting in the next election, say pollsters. “The very concerned,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, in an interview with The Hill Times. “This is the strategy that Justin Trudeau executed in play again, which, when they win, they unite the progressive vote behind one option.” Ideologically, both the Liberals and the NDP appeal to centre-left voters. As a result, when one party gains support, the other tends to lose it. Before every federal election, the Liberals leverage this dynamic to persuade progressive voters that the only way to prevent the Conservatives from winning is to support their party. Bricker said that one reason for the NDP's decline in national public opinion polls is the political consequences of its now-defunct supply-and-confidence deal with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's (Papineau, Que.) government. While the agreement enabled the NDP to achieve policy wins, such as dental care and pharmacare, it also tied them to the Liberals. Signed in March 2022, the agreement was intended to last until this year, but was terminated by the NDP last summer. It had allowed the Liberals to govern as a majority in exchange for progress on NDP priorities, with the smaller party supporting all confidence votes. According to Bricker, this alliance undermined the NDP as an option for change. He said that Canadians seeking to prevent a government led by Poilievre (Carleton, Ont.) no longer see NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh (Burnaby South, B.C.) as a viable option. Justin Trudeau's announcement about his exit plans in early January was a key factor in reversing the Liberals' decline in national public opinion polls, says pollster Nik Nanos. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade “So if you want to stop Poilievre and the Conservatives, you have to vote for the Liberals,” said Bricker of the message. “Really, that's the first stage of the recovery . The recovery that we've seen happening with the departure of Justin Trudeau is that NDP voters are now starting to think that the Liberal Party is a viable option again.” Until Trudeau announced his exit plan in early January, the Liberals were trailing the Conservatives by as many as 27 points in some polls. For more than a year, the Conservatives had maintained a strong double-digit lead, making a Poilievre majority government in 2025 seem inevitable. However, the political landscape began to shift as the Liberals started the process of selecting a new leader, and United States President Donald Trump issued on-again, off-again 25-per-cent tariffs on all Canadian goods and services, along with claims about annexing the country. Last week, Trump officially imposed a 25-per-cent tariff on all Canadian goods entering the U.S., which was expected to negatively impact $1-trillion in trade and put approximately a million Canadian jobs at risk. Later that same week, he granted exemptions to these tariffs to the three major auto companies for a month, then, on March 6, once again paused the tariffs until April 2. Bricker said that the Conservative Party's support went up, starting in the summer of 2023, partly because people who were not traditionally centre-right voters wanted a change in government. This was in addition to the party’s traditional base. Now that Trudeau has stepped down, those voters are taking a fresh look at the Liberals. Also, some people see similarities between Poilievre and Trump in terms of their rhetoric, and the Liberals have created ads highlighting these similarities. Bricker said that this has created a vulnerability for Poilievre, as people don't see him standing up for Canada against Trump. For the last couple of weeks, Poilievre has been very vocal in condemning Trump’s threats, and has used the slogan of “Canada First” to blunt this perception. He said that the Liberal attack ad contrasting Poilievre and Trump has been effective. “The sense that maybe there's a kind of a closeness between the way they present themselves suggests that they may have a similar way of thinking to some voters, but at this stage, it's just more of an emotional reaction than a factual one,” said Bricker. A poll by Nanos Research last week suggested that the Conservatives and Liberals were tied in a statistical dead heat. The poll, released on Feb. 28, showed that the Conservatives had the support of 36.5 per cent of Canadians, followed by the Liberals at 34.3 per cent, the NDP at 15.3 per cent, the Greens at 3.7 per cent, and the People’s Party at 2.1 per cent. An Ipsos poll released on Feb. 26 suggested that the Liberals had the support of 38 per cent of Canadians, followed by the Conservatives at 36 per cent, the NDP at 12 per cent, and the Greens at four per cent. The survey also found that 86 per cent of Canadians want an election as soon as possible. Many feel the country needs a prime minister with a strong mandate to handle challenges posed by Trump's tariffs. “They feel that there needs to be strong leadership from the national government, which means you need to have a prime minister with a strong mandate to deal with this, and it's something we lack at the moment,” said Bricker. “The justification is actually the one that Doug Ford had in his election campaign, but it's much more valid in the federal circumstance where people feel that we need to have strong leadership in the country, a strong prime minister with a strong mandate to be able to deal with Trump, and that seems to be a very logical thing for Canadians and a good reason to have an election,” said Bricker. U.S. President Donald Trump imposed—and then reversed—a 25-per-cent tariff on all imported Canadian goods last week. Photograph courtesy of Wikimedia Commons Meanwhile, at the time of publication last week, Mark Carney was tipped to succeed Trudeau as Liberal party leader on March 9. In anticipation of that result, the Conservatives began running attack ads weeks in advance to shape public perception of the former banker. Bricker said that it is too early to assess these ads' effectiveness, as Carney remains largely unknown to most Canadians. The main public awareness of him is his tenure as the head of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, Bricker said. When voters are unfamiliar with a political figure and encounter negative information, they tend to seek out more details. It remains to be seen whether these ads will have a lasting impact. Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, echoed Bricker’s view that left-of-centre voters are shifting toward the Liberals, helping them narrow the gap with the Conservatives. Just a few weeks ago, polls predicted a strong Conservative victory, but now they are projected to win only a minority government, he said. Nanos said that progressive voters are returning to the Liberals because they see them as ideologically aligned, and view them as the only viable option to prevent the Conservatives from forming government. Nanos said that within just six weeks, the race has shifted from a possible strong majority for the Conservatives to the prospect of a minority government. He said that the Conservatives are currently airing attack ads targeting Carney, but generally, Canadians tend to view negative ads skeptically. For these ads to have any impact, Carney would need to take actions that substantiate the accusations being made against him. Nanos also pointed out that by running these attack ads, the Conservatives might unintentionally boost Carney's popularity, and reinforce the idea that he is a real threat to Poilievre’s political future. Nanos said that a lot depends on how Carney responds to these attacks. He suggested Carney should deal with these attacks head on. So far, Carney has not provided a clear answer whether he was involved in the decision to relocate the headquarters of Brookfield Asset Management from Canada to the U.S. If Carney was behind that decision, Nanos advised him to be transparent about it, take responsibility, and own the decision. He argued that denying it or refusing to address it won’t help, as the lack of a clear and satisfactory explanation from Carney continues to be a concern. Nanos referred to Ford as an example, noting that when the Ontario premier had made mistakes, he acknowledged them publicly and has apologized, which Ontarians like. “Mark Carney coming out and saying, ‘you know what, I made a mistake. I'm not a professional politician, here's what happened,' would probably be the best way to kind of for him to deal with it because if he avoids it, it's just going to dog him,” said Nanos. “And if he avoids it, people will assume that, you know, that perhaps it's true. And, you know, the thing is that avoiding, avoiding a mistake like that is usually never a good strategy.” Both Nanos and Bricker said that there’s a high demand for an election at this time because of the Trump-triggered trade war, and the fact that a new Liberal leader was chosen on March 9. Canadians think that the new prime minister will need a new mandate. arana@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

NDP should be ‘very concerned’ about strategic voting as progressive voters shift to Liberals, say pollsters

The ballot question has shifted to Trump tariffs, and progressive voters want to stop Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, say pollsters Nik Nanos and Darrell Bricker.

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