Liberals lose, Conservatives gain in new riding boundary breakdown of 2021 electoral results

If the new riding boundaries had been in effect in 2021, the Liberals would have won fewer seats and the Conservatives would have had greater numbers in Parliament, according to a new Elections Canada transposition of the vote analysis of the most recent election results. That breakdown comes at a time when seat projections are being closely monitored with polls showing the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by double-digit margin for the past few months. According to the analysis released April 9, the Liberal Party would have won 157 seats, the Conservative Party 126, the Bloc Québécois 34, the New Democratic Party 24, and two for the Green Party. This means the Liberals would have lost three ridings compared to the seats secured in 2021. The Conservatives, meanwhile, would have gained seven electoral districts, followed by two gains for the Bloc, one lost riding for the New Democrats, and the Greens staying the same with two. In 2021, the total House seats up for grabs was 338, but the newly drawn electoral map increases that number by five, bringing 343 MPs to the next Parliament. Of the 338 House seats in 2021, the Liberals won 160, the Conservatives 119, the Bloc 32, the NDP 25, and the Greens two. Comparison of seats won in 2021 and transposed results based on 2023 riding boundaries SeatsLiberalsConservativesBloc NDPGreensTotalSeats won in 2021 election16011932252338Estimated seat wins under 2023 boundaries15712634242343Difference-3+7+2-10+5Source: Elections Canada Of the five new seats added to the new electoral map, Alberta is getting three more, while Ontario and British Columbia each gain one seat. With the addition of these new ridings, Alberta will have 37, Ontario 122, and British Columbia 43. Currently, Ontario has 121 MPs in Parliament, Quebec 78, British Columbia 42, Alberta 34, Manitoba and Saskatchewan 14 each, New Brunswick 10, Nova Scotia 11, Prince Edward Island four, Newfoundland and Labrador seven, with Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut each sending one federal representative to Ottawa. Recent national public opinion polls have been suggesting for months that the Justin Trudeau Liberals are trailing the Conservatives by a double-digit margin. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Canada’s constitution requires a review of electoral boundaries every 10 years to reflect population changes in federal electoral riding boundaries across the country. In 2013, when the last redistribution took place, the country’s population was about 35.1 million, according to Statistics Canada. Currently, the population is about 41 million. Independent and non-partisan commissions in all provinces helped to redraw the geographical boundaries. According to Elections Canada, if the next election were to be called after April 23, it would happen under the new boundaries. But if one were to be called prior to that, it would take place with the existing ridings. With that deadline only two weeks away, it’s expected that an Oct. 20, 2025, election will occur under the new riding borders. Of the current 338 ridings, only 48 remain unchanged under the redistribution, while 290 have undergone updates in boundaries and population. Depending on the movement of population, a riding may have undergone minor tweaks, or major changes where a riding’s name, geography, and population have been altered. The change in riding boundaries could range from a minor tinkering to a whole constituency completely disappearing. For the transposition of vote analysis, Elections Canada took results from the individual polling stations from the 2021 election and mapped these onto the newly redrawn ridings. This analysis says that the Liberals would have dropped seats in Quebec, Ontario, and Alberta. The full seat count puts Liberals in six out of seven seats in Newfoundland, four out of four in P.E.I., eight out of 11 in Nova Scotia, six out of 10 in New Brunswick, 33 out of 78 in Quebec, 77 out of 122 in Ontario, four out of 14 in Manitoba, one out of 14 in Saskatchewan, one out of 37 in Alberta, 15 out of 43 in B.C., and one seat each in Yukon and Northwest Territories. In comparison, in the 2021 election, the Liberals had actually won 24 out of 32 seats in the four Atlantic provinces, 35 in Quebec, 78 in Ontario, four in Manitoba, two in Alberta, 15 in B.C. and one each in Yukon and Northwest Territories. The Conservatives, according to Elections Canada analysis, would have seen gains in Ontario, Alberta, and B.C., while dropping a seat in Saskatchewan. Their 126 seats broke down to eight out of 32 seats in the four Atlantic provinces, 10 in Quebec, 40 in Ontario, seven in Manitoba, 13 in Saskatchewan, 34 in Alberta, and 14 in British Columbia. In 2021, the Conservatives had won eight seats in Atlantic Canada, 10 in Quebec, 37 in Ontario, seven in Manitoba, 14 in Saskatchewan, 30 in Alberta and 13 in B.C. Stéphane Perrault is the chief electoral officer of Canada. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade The Bloc Québécois won 32 seats in Quebec in 2021, but would have held 34 under the transposition analysis. The NDP, based on this analysis, would have won one riding in Quebec, four in Ontario, three in Manitoba, two in Alberta, 13 in British Columbia, and one in Nunavut. That's identical to the 2021 results, save for a seat lost in Ontario. The Greens, according to Elections Canada analysis, would have taken one seat each in Ontario and Quebec. They won the same number in 2021. National public opinion polls currently place the Conservatives far ahead of the Liberals said Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research, and the new riding boundaries are giving the blue party even more advantage. He said the transposition of vote analysis will help all federal parties determine the key battlegrounds for the next election. “When we redo this work using the new boundaries, it's going to make the Tory lead even stronger,” said Lyle. Based on Lyle’s most recent seat projections in the 343 redistributed ridings, the Conservatives could win 225 seats, the Liberals 54, the Bloc 40, the NDP 23, and the Greens one. In 2021, the Liberals won 5.5 million or 32.6 per cent of the votes; the Conservatives 5.7 million or 33.7 per cent; the NDP three million or 17.8 per cent; the Bloc Québécois 1.3-million or 7.7-million; the Greens 396,988 or 2.3 per cent; and the People’s Party of Canada 840,993 or 4.9 per cent. The Trudeau Liberals won the last two elections with the lowest popular vote in Canadian political history by only 32.6 per cent and 33.1 per cent, respectively. And prior to that, the lowest margin was when the Joe Clark Progressive Conservatives won a minority government with 35.9 per cent of the votes in 1979. arana@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

Liberals lose, Conservatives gain in new riding boundary breakdown of 2021 electoral results

Election Canada's transposition of vote analysis will help federal parties determine the battleground ridings for the next election, says pollster Greg Lyle.

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