Empty hydrogen strategies in transportation sector: a plan without projects

On Aug. 23, the federal government signed an agreement to establish a “Canada-Germany hydrogen alliance” with the goal of exporting hydrogen from Canada in 2025. There are benefits to this move. Germany will have a much-needed allied alternative to Russian gas, and Canada will develop a new, secure green hydrogen supply chain. But here at home, municipal and provincial hydrogen strategies are not promising to do the same. Hydrogen mobility projects can’t get funding and are stuck in a conceptual garage that hasn’t even been built. Despite federal and municipal commitments to decarbonize transit fleets—a glaringly obvious application for zero-carbon hydrogen today—hydrogen buses can’t be deployed in most cities in Canada because provinces aren’t putting in their fair share of hydrogen funding to reduce the cost of low-volume green hydrogen compared to diesel in the short-term. There is a dire and immediate need to support credible alternatives to accelerate Canada’s own energy transition. About 22 per cent of our greenhouse gas emissions come from transportation. Without initial hydrogen bus deployments, the domestic volume of demand for green hydrogen in transportation will not grow rapidly enough to enable natural market forces to support competitive pricing wars. Those price wars are needed to reduce cost based on a stable fleet-based clientele of demand. Public fleets don’t buy one car, one shuttle or one bus. They buy in the dozens and hundreds. And they buy fast. Every year, hundreds of buses in Canada need to be replaced or added to an aging fleet. Scalable bus purchases en masse constitute an immediate demand for green hydrogen. If leveraged properly, rail won’t be too far behind and rail is the holy grail of massive consumption where hydrogen supplies can be delivered efficiently. This isn’t guesswork. It’s empirics. A deployment of 10 fuel-cell buses in Mississauga has been stalled for five years as the city repeatedly asks the province for short-term subsidies to offset the cost of green hydrogen already being made in Markham by Enbridge until competitors come on line. The city is putting in millions of dollars to get the project going. The federal government is coming to the table with more millions in the Zero Emissions Transit Fund. So far, five years in, nothing from the province. There are more than 15,000 buses in Canada today and that’s mostly just the regular transit buses. Add in coaches, shuttles, specialized buses, and rail, and we have the makings of a five-, 10- and 20-year plan for immediate, structural hydrogen demand that energy producers can bank on. We already know the number of fleet buses needs to grow to accommodate jammed cities like Toronto and the 400,000-plus immigrants waiting to get into this country who are already lined up at the border. To give credit where it’s due, the Prairies kind of get it. In Manitoba, Charbone Hydrogen Corporation will lease 4.6 acres on a decommissioned wastewater treatment plant to construct and operate the province’s first hub for green hydrogen starting by an estimated 2023. Winnipeg Transit might get green cheap fuel in upcoming years. Meanwhile, city officials in Edmonton are adding a couple fuel-cell pilot buses to their fleet of 60 battery electric buses already on roads. Edmonton and Strathcona County have a goal of converting at least 500 buses in a few years, and Alberta has pumped millions into the current two-bus pilot to get this demand going. For now, Edmonton’s hydrogen trial is based on the province's investments in blue hydrogen—stuff that comes from methane and has some polluting features reduced by “carbon capture.” It’s a start. It’s not the end. In Ontario, no one in government is talking about linking the proposed Atura hydrogen hub in Niagara to transit. Transit people are, but we seem to be talking in a bubble to ourselves. Folks at the soon-to-be regionalized transit system in Niagara are already wondering if local green hydrogen could help them. Meanwhile, our team at the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium has started knocking on doors to see if cheap green hydrogen can get across the QEW to MiWay by 2024 to reduce hydrogen prices sooner rather than later. But that’s years away and speed is unlikely. The economic story for green hydrogen in Ontario is among the best in the country. MiWay’s 10 bus deployment would lead almost immediately (within 12 months) to dozens more buses being planned for purchase in the area. Already, Brampton has announced plans to buy two if it could tap into green hydrogen from Markham. Toronto, York Region and agencies across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Areas need the stuff too—and soon. By the laws of economics, even Metrolinx will be desperate in short order, because there's no way to decarbonize GO buses across Ontario without hydrogen. Where do things stand? In December 2020, the federal government unveiled its Hydrogen Strategy for Canada, which was a welcome step forward to building a hydrogen market. To its credit, the federal government has invested in creating hydrogen “hubs” around the country that should produce more green fuel and help reduce prices over the next 10 years and its electric bus fund is valued at nearly $3-billion. It’s a great start. Federal taxpayers can’t do it all alone. We are a confederation and public transit is provincial in nature. It’s not fair to ask the taxpayers of Yellowknife to fully subsidize green hydrogen buses in Greater Toronto through federal taxes without asking Ontarians to do the same through their provincial revenues. Ontario could be a leader here. The province announced its first hydrogen strategy earlier this year, but that strategy had nothing for buses or coaches or any form of transportation demonstration project. Problems and Disconnects There is no lack of demand for hydrogen in Canada’s transit network today. But there is a lack of provincial support for the kind of fuel needed to power public mobility, which is the kind of mobility that will power our decarbonized economy this century. Public fleet demand can hoover up a large portion of the product that grand hydrogen hubs nation-wide will produce in upcoming years. But if we can’t get 300 kg of already-produced green hydrogen per day 50 km from Markham to Mississauga for 10 fuel-cell buses, it doesn’t bode well for our ability as Canadians to match need and demand with supply. Canada is an exporting and trading nation. A globalized free trading paragon of success. We also need to be a domestically trading nation with exceptional distribution supply chains, too. For the hydrogen story, that will take provincial leadership, especially in Ontario. Dr. Josipa Petrunić is president and CEO of the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC). The Hill Times