Amid election speculation and Liberals' rise in polls, Poilievre's Conservatives congregate in Calgary for high-stakes leadership review

Against the backdrop of Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals rise in public opinion polls following his recent Davos speech and ongoing federal election speculation, rank-and-file Conservatives from across the country are gathering in Calgary to conduct Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s leadership review, debate party policies, and elect a new national council, the most powerful elected decision-making body within the party. “It's important more for us, internally, to come together as Conservatives after the defeat, and to revitalize ourselves going forward to prepare for the next election, which could be as soon as this spring,” said Conservative MP Stephanie Kusie (Calgary Midnapore, Alta.), who is the co-MC of the convention along with Conservative MP Pierre Paul-Hus (Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Que), in an interview with The Hill Times. “So, it's important for the sense of unity revitalization, and just the belief that Canadians are open to us as a government recognizing the situation with the cost of living and the low productivity.” Kusie said she’s confident that Poilievre (Battle River-Crowfoot, Alta.) will receive a “resounding” endorsement from convention delegates, but declined to predict how much support he would receive, or about what level of backing he would need to remain party leader. “This is up to him to decide and the membership to decide,” said Kusie. “I mean, this is the beauty of our system is that it's left to the members to make a decision as to their support for him. But I expect it will be very, very high. You see on social media, for example, resounding support for him and that this will be reflected within the results at the convention.” In interviews with The Hill Times, current and former senior Conservatives said that the high-stakes leadership vote will decide whether or not Poilievre will lead the party in the next election. They also said that barring a major surprise, it appears that the leader will receive more than 80 per cent of the support from delegates. As of publishing time, it was unclear how many voting delegates were attending the Calgary convention. Four-term Conservative MP Stephanie Kusie will be on of the MCs at the Conservative Party's convention in Calgary. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Each of the country's 343 ridings can send up to 12 delegates. Of these, two are the incumbent MP or candidate of record, and the electoral district association president. The remaining 10 have to be chosen through a secret-ballot election. All 20 elected national councillors, former party leaders, and members of the national policy and constitution committees are also eligible to attend. If an elected delegate cannot attend the convention, or if an electoral district association cannot fill all delegate positions, additional party members may be appointed to fill the vacancies. The leadership review is "basically going to say who's leading the party into the next election,” Keith Beardsley, former deputy chief of staff to then-prime minister Stephen Harper, told The Hill Times, adding that he’s confident Poilievre will receive more than 80 per cent support in his leadership review at the convention. “Somewhere in the mid 80s, everyone would be happy. The whole thing, when you do these, it is to make sure that your leader wins enough support that people who may dislike them may want to challenge him just back off and leave him alone. So, ideally, somewhere in the mid 80s, will do it. He may get a lot more if they've organized properly. He could get up in the 90s,” said Beardsley. Beardsley said all party leaders—regardless of political stripe—keep a tight grip on the party machinery, particularly ahead of a leadership review. Their loyalists within party offices carefully oversee delegate selection meetings, ensuring loyal supporters are elected and ultimately attend the convention, boosting the leader’s chances of a strong endorsement. For this weekend's review, Poilievre and his supporters started working on it right after the 2025 election. Also, political organizers across the country told The Hill Times recently that the leader is extremely popular among grassroots party members, pointing out that wherever Poilievre goes to attend grassroots events, crowds regularly turn out in more than twice the expected numbers. In the last election, the Conservatives won 41.3 per cent or nearly 8.1 million votes nationally, while the Liberals won 43.7 per cent or 8.6 million votes. The Liberals won 169 of 343 seats, while the Conservatives ended up with 144 seats. The Conservatives also increased their total vote count compared to the 2021 federal election when they received 33.7 per cent or 5.7 million votes. This was the Conservatives' best election result in terms of popular vote since the 1988 election. In the last election, the Liberals received 11 per cent more votes compared to the previous election, and the Conservatives 7.4 per cent more than 2021. In terms of seat numbers, the Liberals won 15 more seats, and the Conservatives 16 more. According to the Conservative Party constitution, any leader who fails to bring their party to power after an election must undergo a mandatory leadership review. Poilievre's 'the best person, in my view, to be the prime minister next,': Nik Kouvalis Ian Brodie, former PMO chief of staff to Harper, told the The Hub podcast this week that the leadership review is a secret-ballot vote, making the outcome unpredictable. To secure strong grassroots support, he said, the leader must deliver a convincing speech that persuades delegates he can win the next federal election. “It's possible they can change their mind in the five minutes between the end of the speech and then cast ballot,” said Brodie. Nik Kouvalis, a veteran provincial and federal Conservative political strategist, told The Herle Burly podcast on Jan. 25 that he expects Poilievre to secure a convincing victory in the leadership review. He added that, for now, given the challenge posed by United States President Donald Trump, Carney (Nepean, Ont.) is best positioned to serve as prime minister. However, Kouvalis said that once Trump’s term ends in three years, Poilievre would be in the strongest position to become prime minister. He also advised the Conservative leader to distance himself from Trump supporters in his base, saying that such associations could hurt his chances in the next election. “He's the best person, in my view, to be the prime minister next,” Kouvalis said. “And by next, I mean, like in two or three or four years. I don't think there's going to be someone that will be better than him at that time.” During the three-day biennial policy convention in Calgary that starts today and ends Saturday, the elected delegates will vote on Poilievre’s future on Friday, Jan. 30, from 7:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. local time. Right before the start of the voting, Poilievre will give a keynote speech at the convention. As of press time, it was not known when the party is planning to announce the result of the vote. Four-term Conservative MP Pierre Paul-Hus, pictured at the 2023 policy convention, is the second MC at this week's biennial gathering in Calgary. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade This convention is the first time since 2005 that the Conservative Party is holding a leadership review. In that review, 2,900 voting delegates attended the convention and then-party leader Harper won 84 per cent of the vote. Since then, any leader that has lost a federal election has either quit on his own, or has been pushed out. More than 2,500 delegates and observers attended the Sept. 7-Sept. 9, 2023, biennial policy convention in Quebec City. This was the first policy convention after Poilievre had won the leadership election in 2022. He won his leadership on the first ballot by carrying about 71 per cent of the popular vote and 330 of 338 ridings. The delegate fee to attend this year's convention in Calgary is $999. Youth delegates will have to pay $450. This means if someone is travelling from Ontario or Quebec to Calgary, it could cost them $2,000-$3,000 in travel, lodging, and the convention fee. The riding associations, however, can subsidize most of these costs. Meanwhile, the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party convention is happening in Toronto from Jan. 30 to Feb. 1. The fee to attend the PC convention is $299, and the youth delegate fee is $99. This will likely mean that the representation of Ontario delegates at the federal convention will be low. The Conservative Party’s constitution does not specify a threshold that a leader has to meet in a leadership review. Following a leadership review vote, party leaders decide on their own if they received enough support to remain in their position, or step down and trigger a leadership election. In 2022, then-United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney resigned from his role as premier of Alberta after receiving just 51.4-per-cent support in his leadership review. In 2016, then-federal NDP leader Tom Mulcair stepped down after receiving only 48 per cent. In 1983, then-Progressive Conservative leader Joe Clark triggered a leadership election after securing 66.9 per cent of the vote. And last September, then-Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie announced she would resign after receiving 57 per cent support in her leadership review even though the provincial Liberals’ constitution required Crombie to receive 50-per-cent support. Crombie officially stepped down on Jan. 14. Last September, British Columbia Conservative leader John Rustad won 70 per cent of the vote in the leadership review, but still was pushed out by the caucus. arana@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

Amid election speculation and Liberals’ rise in polls, Poilievre’s Conservatives congregate in Calgary for high-stakes leadership review

Pierre Poilievre will get a ‘resounding’ endorsement in the leadership review, says Conservative MP and convention co-MC Stephanie Kusie.

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