Liberals, Conservatives gripped in a tie, next election will be 'like a knife fight in a telephone booth,' with Trump as disruptor: Nanos

Newly minted Prime Minister Mark Carney—who was sworn in as prime minister on March 14—secured a convincing landslide victory in the Liberal leadership election on March 9, winning 89.5 per cent of the vote and sweeping all 343 ridings, which pollster Nik Nanos says indicates Carney's national appeal. He defeated his two main rivals—Chrystia Freeland and Karina Gould—even in their own constituencies. Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, described the leadership election result as a “crushing victory,” highlighting the strength of Carney’s campaign organization. He said that the outcome demonstrated Carney’s ability to run a truly national campaign, ensuring no region was overlooked or left behind. “Maybe that's one lesson that we can take from this, that perhaps when Mark Carney gets to fight the next election,” said Nanos. “He's going to fight for every seat in every part of the country, that it's not going to be a situation where he gives up anywhere, because it's clear, at least from his leadership campaign, he was not prepared to give up any riding to his opponents.” Unlike members of the Conservatives, NDP, or Bloc Québécois, Liberal Party members prioritize electability over ideological alignment, Nanos said. The results, he said, validate party members' belief that Carney is the best candidate to defeat Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (Carleton, Ont.), who had been leading in the polls for more than a year. Another key factor in Carney’s victory was his positioning as a blue Liberal or centrist. His credentials as a former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England also played a significant role in securing his win. Nanos said that although the Liberals have made significant gains in the polls over the past two months, anything can still happen as voters tend to focus more closely on party platforms and candidates as the election approaches. Right before former prime minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) announced his exit plans, the Liberals were trailing the Conservatives by about 27 points. Now, some polls show the Conservatives either tied in a statistical dead heat, and at least one poll is showing the Liberals in a majority territory. According to a Nanos poll released March 7, the Conservatives had the support of 35.7 per cent of voters and the Liberals 34.7 per cent. The NDP support was at 14.9, Bloc 7.9, Greens 3.8 and People’s Party 2.1 per cent. An Ekos poll conducted between Feb. 27 and March 5 suggested that if an election were held today, the Liberals would secure a majority government. The rolling poll, with a sample of approximately 2,000 respondents, showed the Liberals at 40.7 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 35.5 per cent, the NDP at 12.8 per cent, and the Greens at 3.2 per cent. “The Liberals and the Conservatives are gripped in a tie, and it's like a knife fight in a telephone booth, and anything could happen now, especially with Donald Trump as part of this disruptive, unpredictable mix of whatever the campaign happens to focus on,” said Nanos. According to the Liberal Party's announced leadership race results, Carney secured 29,456 points out of a maximum of 34,300. In the leadership election, each riding carried an equal weight of 100 points, with candidates earning points based on their percentage of the vote in that riding. To win, a candidate needed at least 17,151 points—50 per cent plus one. The vote was conducted across 343 newly reconfigured ridings, an increase from the previous 338. Party members used a ranked ballot system, listing the four candidates in order of preference. If no candidate secured a majority on the first ballot, the lowest-ranked candidate would be eliminated, and their votes redistributed to the remaining contenders. This process would continue until a candidate achieved a majority. Freeland (University-Rosedale, Ont.) received 2,728 points, or eight per cent of the votes, while Gould (Burlington, Ont.) secured 3.2 per cent. Both are incumbent MPs, but failed to win their own ridings. Former Liberal MP Frank Baylis received 1,014 points, or three per cent of the votes. In University-Rosedale, Carney won 1,322 votes (82.9 per cent), Freeland received 188 (11.8 per cent), Gould 51 (3.2 per cent), and Baylis 32 (2 per cent). In Burlington, Carney secured 818 votes (75.9 per cent), Gould received 190 (17.6 per cent), Freeland 47 (4.3 per cent), and Baylis 22 (2 per cent). In Pierrefonds-Dollard—the riding Baylis represented from 2015 to 2019—the former Montreal MP secured 130 votes (31.7 percent), while Carney received 247 (60.2 per cent), Freeland 26 (6.3 per cent), and Gould seven votes (1.7 per cent). In a message to The Hill Times, Tom Allison, Freeland's campaign manager, said that the University-Rosedale riding results reflected the national trends. “University—Rosedale voted the same way Liberals all over Canada voted,” wrote Allison. “University-Rosedale has one of the largest memberships in the country. Mark Carney received a strong vote everywhere in the country, including in downtown Toronto.” In an email to the Freeland campaign team on March 13, Allison wrote that Freeland’s campaign placed second in all provinces and in 317 of 343 ridings. He also stated that their campaign raised $700,000 in less than two months, and noted that 70,000 Liberals who did not select Freeland as their first choice ranked her as their second choice. Liberal MP Chrystia Freeland came in second place in the March 9 Liberal leadership race, and failed to win in her own riding. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade “Our targeted outreach paid off. With the exception of Ontario and Saskatchewan, we won larger proportions of points than our proportion of votes,” said Allison in his email. “We made a real effort to engage the grassroots over the past two months, including 20 town halls with Liberals from every riding in the country.” A spokesperson for the Gould campaign did not say why the former government House leader failed to win even her own riding in an emailed response to The Hill Times. "Liberals across the country gave Mark Carney a clear and strong mandate to lead our party, through the next federal election and beyond. Karina Gould is proud of the progressive campaign she ran," the spokesperson said. "The Liberal Party is stronger for each candidate that ran and put their ideas on the table. Karina Gould is excited to be apart of the Liberal Team, and looks forward take the fight to Pierre Poilievre and stand up for the interests of Canadians, alongside Mr. Carney and her other colleagues. Karina looks forward to running again in Burlington and standing up for the people of Burlington." Former government House leader Karina Gould ended up in third place in the Liberal leadership race and also failed to win even her own riding. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, said that the leadership election results suggested that none of the other candidates had a substantial organizational presence. It was surprising that both Gould and Freeland—two former senior government ministers—failed to secure victories even in their own ridings while running for party leadership and the position of prime minister, he said. Bricker noted that the leadership debates lacked excitement, creating the impression that none of the candidates was making a strong effort. “It was like watching the hockey practice in which there was no hitting, no pads, and no puck,” said Bricker. “It was like they were kind of going through the motions,” he said. Meanwhile, Carney and his new cabinet were sworn in on March 14. Since then, the prime minister and his ministers have been in the process of staffing their respective offices. When a prime minister or any cabinet minister leaves their position or is reassigned to a new portfolio, their exempt staff automatically receive termination letters as a general rule. Consequently, incoming cabinet ministers and the prime minister have to hire staff again. Before the cabinet was unveiled, Carney appointed Liberal MP Marco Mendicino (Eglinton—Lawrence, Ont.) as his chief of staff for the transition process. Once the transition is complete, a new chief of staff is expected to succeed him. Mendicino, a three-term Liberal MP and former cabinet minister, is not seeking re-election. His appointment as chief of staff faced considerable pushback from caucus members due to past controversies during his time as a minister—issues that opposition parties are likely to exploit in the next election. Additionally, his staunch support for Israel has drawn criticism, particularly in light of the more than 48,000 Palestinian deaths in the most recent conflict. Tim Krupa, a policy adviser from Carney’s leadership campaign, is expected to join the Prime Minister’s Office as policy director. The next federal election is anticipated to be called by March 23. As a result, Liberal sources said last week that staffing will not be fully completed until after the election. During the campaign, most ministerial staffers are expected to shift their focus to election efforts by taking leaves of absence from ministerial positions, with only a few exempt staffers remaining in their offices. arana@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

Liberals, Conservatives gripped in a tie, next election will be ‘like a knife fight in a telephone booth,’ with Trump as disruptor: Nanos

In the March 9 Liberal leadership election, Prime Minister Carney secured a ‘crushing victory,’ winning all 343 ridings.

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