Russian plane crash not the end of the Prigozhin story

OTTAWA—The startling news out of Russia last week was that a private jet carrying the notorious oligarch-warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin had plummeted from the sky just north of Moscow. According to Russian state news, Prigozhin’s name was on the passenger list for that flight, along with seven top commanders of his Wagner Group mercenary force, and three crew members. All are presumed dead. Amateur video footage captured the stricken plane, minus one wing, plunging into the ground. Immediate speculation was that Prigozhin’s plane had been downed by an anti-aircraft missile, but that theory was subsequently debunked by none other than the United States Central Intelligence Agency. Analysts now believe that the private jet was downed by an internal explosion. The one thing which virtually every western media outlet seems certain of is that whatever happened to Prigozhin, Russian President Vladimir Putin was directly responsible for his death. Just two months ago, Prigozhin had leapt into the international spotlight when he staged a violent march on Moscow with a handful of his Wagner mercenaries. Virtually unopposed by regular Russian troops, Prigozhin's Wagner renegades were halfway to Moscow when an unexpected deal was brokered by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko. Under the terms of this deal, Prigozhin and the Wagner mercenaries would be granted a full pardon, so long as they agreed to be exiled to Belarus indefinitely. Western pundits were shocked at Prigozhin armed powerplay, and even more stunned by Putin’s benevolent gesture of forgiveness to what he himself had described as an act of “treason” against the motherland. Even more surprising was that in the immediate aftermath of what western media described as an “attempted coup,” Prigozhin openly flaunted the conditions of his so-called “exile” to Belarus. During a recent summit of African nations, the notorious warlord was publicly seen in both St. Petersburg and Moscow. Just days before his apparent death, Prigozhin released a video of himself somewhere in Africa encouraging volunteers to join his Wagner group. This could hardly be considered the actions of a man fearing Putin’s revenge for having challenged the Russian president’s authority. Prigozhin very much owes his career success to none other than Putin. From a humble upbringing, young Prigozhin chose a life of crime that resulted in him serving a nine-year prison sentence in a Soviet penal colony. Following his release, Prigozhin entered the business world as a hot dog vendor. In the post-Soviet collapse, Prigozhin saw an opportunity to cater to Russia’s newly minted billionaire oligarchs by opening several upscale restaurants in St. Petersburg. He soon befriended ex-KGB agent Putin and the rest is history. Often dubbed “Putin’s chef,” Prigozhin landed the catering contract for the Russian Armed Forces and said goodbye to his hot dog cart for good. In 2014, when Russia needed an arm’s-length private military contractor to conduct covert operations in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, Prigozhin was the loyal ally to whom Putin turned. The fledgling Wagner group flourished and expanded its operations from Ukraine into Libya, Syria, Mali, Sudan, and Niger. This arrangement proved mutually lucrative as the Wagner mercenaries received hefty paycheques, and the Kremlin received profitable deals on oil and mineral resources from these client states. However, it was only during the recent Russian offensive to capture the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut that Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries really caught the attention of western media. Although Prigozhin had avoided his conscripted military service—given that he was in prison—the former hot dog vendor developed a tough-guy warrior image for the benefit of his YouTube channel followers. As the Wagner group fought a bloody urban warfare struggle in Bakhmut, Prigozhin became a very vocal critic of the senior Russian military leadership. His “cannonball run” demonstration this past June was targeting Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of staff General Valery Gerasimov. It is important to note that Prigozhin was always extremely careful to avoid including his mentor Putin in his televised diatribes. Many in Russia actually believe that Putin sanctioned Prigozhin's abortive armed protest in order to gauge the loyalty of the senior military leadership. All of which brings us back to the question of what really happened to Prigozhin? Why stage an elaborate execution involving a bomb aboard a private jet, which could easily have resulted in additional civilian casualties? Would a man as cunning as Prigozhin, if he truly thought he had run afoul of Putin, fly on the same plane as all of Wagner’s top officials? Almost nothing in Russian politics is exactly as it seems, and this may be another case of maskirovka, or deliberate deception. With Prigozhin pronounced dead, the hot-dog-vendor-turned-warlord can once again easily disappear from the international public spotlight. In the meantime, his Wagner forces are publicly mourning the death of their charismatic leader, but no one is vowing to avenge his alleged murder. It is also true that the Wagner contracts in Africa remain a boon to Russia’s treasury and, therefore, it is unlikely that this private mercenary army will cease to exist. Scott Taylor is the editor and publisher of Esprit de Corps magazine. The Hill Times

Russian plane crash not the end of the Prigozhin story

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Russian plane crash not the end of the Prigozhin story

The Wagner contracts in Africa remain a boon to Russia’s treasury, so it is unlikely that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private mercenary army will cease to exist.

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