May remains optimistic despite poor polling, vows to elect 12 Green MPs in next election

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May says she isn’t discouraged by recent polling that showed more than 60 per cent of Canadians disapproved of her performance since reclaiming her role as leader last November, vowing to return the Greens to official party status in the next election. But with no sign of the typical “honeymoon” period experienced by newly elected party leaders, pollsters aren’t confident May will be able to “right the ship” towards the heights of support it experienced before her departure. May (Saanich–Gulf Islands, B.C.), who led the party from 2006 to 2019, won the party's leadership race on Nov. 19, 2022, on the sixth and final ranked ballot with 4,666 votes after campaigning on a joint ticket with Jonathan Pedneault, a 32-year-old human rights activist and journalist. An Ipsos poll released on Dec. 26, 2022, asked Canadians to assess May’s performance as leader for the first time since her three-year hiatus. Sixty-one per cent of respondents indicated their disapproval, while 39 per cent approved of her performance. Similar polling from Abacus Data showed only 18 per cent of respondents had a positive view of May’s performance, and 27 per cent indicated their disapproval. Additionally, 36 per cent had a neutral attitude, and 19 per cent responded that they did not know enough about May to have an opinion. In contrast, May was the only federal leader to enter into the 2019 federal election with a positive net approval rating, with 44 per cent of respondents approving of her performance and 22 per cent disapproving, according to Forum Research. At the same time, according to Abacus Data polling in June 2019, 44 per cent of Canadians indicated that they would consider voting for the Greens in the upcoming election, which delivered the party’s second-best showing under May’s leadership, securing 6.5 per cent of the national vote and just shy of their record 6.78 per cent in 2008. However, three years later, Abacus Data CEO David Coletto said the number of Canadians who would consider voting Green has dropped by 17 points to 27 per cent. Abacus Data CEO David Coletto says the biggest challenge facing the Green Party is defining its purpose when they are no longer the only option for voters concerned about the environment and climate change. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Coletto attributes much of the party’s decline to its damaged reputation in the eyes of Canadian voters since May’s departure, but added that the biggest challenge the party currently faced is how to define its purpose in federal politics. A 2020 leadership race held after May stepped down from her post the year prior resulted in Annamie Paul taking over the helm of the party for a brief, but tumultuous year. In previous years, when polling Canadians on the issue of climate change and the environment, Coletto said the Greens had been “overwhelmingly” viewed as the party most trusted to handle the issue, even among voters who supported other parties. But that margin has shrunk. According to Abacus polling released on Jan. 18, 26 per cent rated climate change and the environment as one of their top three issues of concern, ranking fifth behind housing affordability at 41 per cent; the economy at 44 per cent; health care at 51 per cent; and the rising cost of living at 72 per cent. When asked which party is best on the issues they selected, the Green Party still leads as the most trusted on the issue of climate change, five points ahead of the Liberals at 22 per cent, followed by the NDP at 16 per cent, and the Conservatives at 10 per cent. “It's a question of relevance and purpose that is less clear for people," Coletto explained. "That's why I think fewer people have put them on their menu of parties they would consider and why the party is having such a hard time gaining traction.” Pollster Nik Nanos says since 2019 when the Green Party was polling at 10 per cent nationally, it has been derailed by the COVID-19 pandemic subsuming climate change as the top issue of national concern. Photograph courtesy of Nik Nanos In an interview with The Hill Times, Nik Nanos, founder and chief data scientist for Nanos Research, also noted that while the environment remained in the top three most important issues of national concern, it was no longer priority No. 1 the way it was in 2019. “When I'm looking at the numbers at the tail end of 2019, we had them at 10 per cent nationally,” Nanos said. “At the same time, the environment was the top unprompted national issue of concern.” Since then, Nanos said the party was derailed by the COVID-19 pandemic placing greater focus on the economy, the rising cost of living, and health care. “Canadians are worried about whether they can pay for the rent or the mortgage in the next 30 days, or whether they can pay for groceries, or get access to health care,” Nanos said. “It's basically subsumed the environment as a national issue of concern in the short run, and as a result, the relevance of the Green Party has been diminished.” Additionally, Nanos said the party’s brand had also been damaged by the “internal squabbling” that followed the Green Party’s disappointing results in the 2021 election and Paul's resignation. Paul, the first Black and Jewish woman elected to lead a federal party in Canadian history, officially resigned as Green Party leader on Nov. 10, 2021, following her failure to get elected in Toronto Centre, Ont., and the party’s generally dismal showing in the 44th general election, receiving only 2.3 per cent of the vote. Paul subsequently turned in her membership, saying her leadership had been destabilized from within and that she had reportedly faced racism and sexism. “All of those things have conspired to put negative pressure on the Green Party where, if there were an election held today, they would probably perform about the same as they did in the previous election, which was generally considered a fiasco,” Nanos said. While May campaigned on her previous experience as leader and the “excellent shape” in which she left the party when she resigned, Coletto said it wasn’t obvious May would be able to “right the ship,” pointing to Abacus’ Feb. 22 polling on Canadians’ impressions of the federal party leaders. “She's still not a household name to everybody and not that well-defined,” Coletto said. “Even though she's back as the leader, it's not obvious that she's going to be able to get the party back to a place where people are seriously considering voting for it.” Nanos also noted that since May’s election as leader, there hasn’t been a significant change in the Green Party’s polling, fluctuating steadily between four and five per cent nationally on any given week. “There hasn't been any, any honeymoon, related to the change in leadership,” Nanos said. May expects boost with return of Parliament, increased media attention In an interview with The Hill Times, May said she wasn’t discouraged by the polling numbers, considering her public profile has significantly changed since 2019. She said that while she had been a sitting MP during the interim, she had a much smaller profile than she had as leader. She also noted that her approval and disapproval numbers were only two points behind that of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (Carleton, Ont.), who has been leader of his party for two months longer. “I’m basically almost tied with Poilievre,” May said, adding that she found it interesting that the four-point difference between Poilievre and Trudeau’s 45 per cent approval was described by Ipsos as “narrowly” edging out the Conservative leader. “The difference between 41 and 39 per cent is not discouraging for me,” May added. “I think that’s great.” May said she remains optimistic those numbers will improve once Parliament returns from a two-week break on March 6, allowing her and Pedneault more opportunities to raise the party’s profile in the media, noting there had not been much opportunity to do so in the seven weeks the House has actually been in session since she won last November. May also challenged the idea the other parties’ climate policies would make it difficult for the Greens to differentiate themselves on the issue, arguing that her party was the only one truly aligned with climate science. “You can't buy and build the Trans Mountain pipeline and claim that you're acting to protect the climate,” May said, referring to the Liberal government’s purchase of the pipeline in 2018 for $4.5-billion. “Climate leaders don't build pipelines, it's not just a slogan; it's the truth,” May continued. “We can't look forward to a livable world for our children if we rely on any other party but the Green Party for policy.” While Canadians may be more immediately focused on the economy and health care due to the COVID-19 pandemic, May said that with the increased frequency of climate events like Hurricane Fiona on the East Coast in 2022 and the atmospheric river in 2021, which caused $1-billion in flood damage to British Columbia, the issue of climate change will similarly become an increasingly personal issue to voters. “It's not a future threat that certain people are worried about,” May added. “The more that people live through extreme weather events, there is going to be a growing demand that we stop talking out of both sides of our mouth on climate.” As for how the Green Party would address Canadians' concerns over the cost of living, May said that rising food prices and the climate crisis are not separate issues. “When we look at what's driving up costs for the average Canadian family, the climate crisis is a very significant factor,” May said, adding that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had compounded inflation by driving up energy prices and adding further strain on the global supply chain. “We need to rethink agriculture production and rethink towards more Canadian production and more local farmers able to make a living,” May continued, adding that addressing the climate crisis was also “intrinsically linked” to issues of justice and equity, including the party’s support for single-payer universal health care, a national pharmacare program, and the creation of the Canada Disability Benefit. May and Pedneault will spend the time before Parliament returns on March 6 travelling to Manitoba, where May said the pair will meet with local voters and media to get their message out. May said that following the completion of a similar tour in the Atlantic provinces at the end of February, she was optimistic about the direction the party was currently heading in. “We are absolutely determined to see more Greens elected and get to at least 12 MPs so that we will be treated as equal,” May said, referring to the number of MPs the party would need to claim official status in the House of Commons. “Electing 12 MPs in the next election is of paramount importance,” May continued. “And we will get there.” sbenson@hilltimes.com The Hill Times Approval/disapproval of federal party leaders' performance Party Leader% Approve(Strongly/Somewhat)% Disapprove(Strongly/Somewhat)Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau45% (14%/31%)55% (33%/23%)Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre41% (14%/27%)59% (32%/26%)New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh53% (14%/40%)47% (21%/26%)Green Party Leader Elizabeth May39% (6%/33%)61% (23%/38%)Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet (Quebec only)43% (13%/30%)57% (31%/26%)People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier26% (5%/20%)74% (41%/34%) Source: Ipsos poll conducted with 1,004 Canadian adults from Dec. 14-16, 2022. Party best able to handle issues of national concern: LiberalConservativeNDPGreenPeople's PartyOtherUnsureHealth care22%25%23%2%1%1%25%The rising cost of living16%31%17%1%4%1%30%Housing affordability and accessibility15%20%28%2%3%1%30%Crime and public safety17%40%11%1%2%1%28%The Russian invasion of Ukraine34%22%10%6%2%4%22%The economy18%46%10%1%3%1%23%Climate change and the environment22%10%16%27%1%1%22%The threat posed by China and Russia30%36%6%2%2%1%24%A lack of freedom in Canada9%45%9%2%25%1%10%Inequality and poverty16%11%32%4%9%3%25%Indigenous reconciliation24%10%30%6%2%1%26%Source: Abacus Data survey conducted with 2,099 Canadian adults from Jan. 12-16, 2023.

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May remains optimistic despite poor polling, vows to elect 12 Green MPs in next election

Despite no discernible 'honeymoon' in the federal Greens' polling, party leader Elizabeth May says she isn't discouraged about her party's future.

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