What midterm crisis?

The pollsters, pundits and Twitter blue-check intelligentsia got the U.S. midterms wrong, big time. They were not attuned to the ordinary Americans who went out, did their democratic duty, and rejected extremism. The issues that attracted and repelled voters have implications for politics and policy, not only in the United States, but also for Canada. U.S. President Joe Biden, who was largely written off, was a clear winner with a Lazarus-style comeback. Despite soaring inflation and worries around the economy, the Democrats pulled off a strong performance in midterm elections which typically auger poorly for the president’s party. They held the Senate, and lost just a handful of seats in the House. To put this in perspective, the Republicans lost 26 House seats in 1982 under Ronald Reagan, the Democrats lost 54 House seats in 1994 under Bill Clinton and 63 under Barack Obama in 2010. Beyond the Beltway, Democrats exceeded expectations at the state level as well. Make no mistake: Trumpism isn’t dead, but Donald Trump was the biggest loser coming out of the midterm elections. His brand of politics and his ilk unnerved a majority of voters. Kevin Lynch, pictured in 2012, was clerk of the Privy Council and vice chair of BMO Financial Group, writes that the pollsters and pundits got the U.S. midterms wrong, big time. The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright The question is: what fuelled this reversal of fortune? This should have been a cakewalk for the Republicans; a James Carville, “It’s the economy stupid,” election. Instead, liberals, who were deeply outraged by the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling and by Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, were highly motivated, and came out to reject extremism at the ballot box. The election itself became a choice about values, rather than a referendum on Biden’s handling of the economy. Swing voters rejected Trump candidates and many election deniers were trounced. The Washington quagmire will continue in 2023, but control of the Senate affords Biden and the Democrats a strong defensive position against House Republican attacks, and provides the ability to move appointments forward. The bipartisan consensus on Ukraine and Russia should be largely unaffected, notwithstanding some loud outliers, as should the recent aggressive approach to China. Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential contest, Republicans will face a fascinating choice between the now declared candidate, Donald Trump, and the big Republican winner coming out of the midterms, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who had a landslide win. DeSantis, who proved to be a capable chief executive during Hurricane Ian, was able to appeal not just to Cuban-Americans who tend to vote Republican, but also to the wider Latino community, who traditionally side with the Democrats. His focus on faith, family values, and a free market economy resonated with these communities, and broadened his base and his national appeal. The big question on the Democratic side is who their candidate will be in 2024, with President Biden turning 80 this month. For Canada, it’s clear that we need to know DeSantis better, and our consulate in Miami can play an important role. Fifteen per cent of foreign direct investment in Florida comes from Canadian-owned firms and employs 54,000 Floridians. To put that in perspective, that’s way more than the Japanese, Mexicans, Brazilians, Chinese, and Israelis combined. According to the Florida Chamber of Commerce, Canada is Florida’s biggest international economic partner, with US$7.7-billion in bilateral trade. Our snowbirds have residential real estate holdings of US$60-billion in the state. They can be a powerful soft lobby for Canada in the event of a DeSantis presidential bid. To seize on the under-tapped relationship and build bridges, we should be organizing Team Canada trade missions to the Sunshine State. Paul Deegan, a former public affairs executive at BMO and CN who served in the Clinton White House, writes that Canada should be organizing trade missions to Florida to get to know potential Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis better. Photograph courtesy of Twitter At the same time, we should be seeking areas of common ground with the Biden Administration, and with the new Congress. While the Democrats need to address urgent economic issues at home, as do we, the administration also needs allies to help curb Russian aggression and Chinese adventurism. The policy alignment is clear, but its delivery means being a stronger NORAD partner, a larger commitment to NATO, and a bigger contributor to Asian security. We can also be better aligned with the Americans on the challenge of energy transitions and energy security, as well as on enacting a global minimum corporate tax rate. For Canadian politicians, the lesson out of the U.S. midterms is that extremism on the right or left is not the answer for the majority of voters. Economic issues in volatile and uncertain times, such as today, typically dominate voter concerns, unless trumped by extreme views and rhetoric. What plays well to a party’s base does not necessarily translate to broad voter appeal, as the Republicans so convincingly demonstrated. The best elections are about competing views on visions of the future, why they matter, and the policies to get from here to there. Kevin Lynch was clerk of the Privy Council and vice-chair of BMO Financial Group. Paul Deegan was a public affairs executive at BMO and CN and served in the Clinton White House. The Hill Times