Important first steps to build a 21st century transit network

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a wave of punditry announcing the imminent death of public transit. On the eve of 2023, these forecasts appear naïve. Federal policy-makers have thankfully avoided turning such prognostications into self-fulfilling prophecies by providing financial assistance to transit providers and doubling down on infrastructure spending. The strongest example of this is the federal government’s recent commitment to invest $14.9-billion into public transit. The investment package shows that federal policy-makers are listening to the needs of localities, service providers, and riders. This is most evident in the plan to establish a “permanent, predictable” source of funding for new infrastructure, as well as a designated fund set aside for rural transit solutions. The National Inquiry on Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls called out the absence of public transit for rural and remote communities as aggravating the violence faced by Indigenous women and girls, forcing many to walk or hitchhike tremendous distances. The Rural Transit Solutions Fund, and the government’s commitment to set aside at least 10 per cent of the fund for Indigenous communities, is a meaningful step towards responding to the needs of rural and remote residents. But federal efforts still leave off the table two critical components for transit’s success: operational subsidies for agencies still struggling from the pandemic, and requirements that transit funding be paired with transit-supportive rezoning. Preventing service cuts through operating subsidies is still necessary to restore ridership. My colleagues and I surveyed thousands of transit riders and former riders in Toronto and Vancouver regarding their transit use intentions post-pandemic. We asked people whether they planned to ride as much as they did before the pandemic. The level of transit service a rider has in their neighbourhood proved to be one of the strongest predictors of planned transit use: the more destinations a rider can access by transit, the more likely that rider is to come back. In many jurisdictions, like Brampton in Ontario, ridership is exceeding pre-pandemic levels. But in much of the country this is not the case. Cutting service now will discourage ex-riders from returning, potentially locking-in reduced ridership at a time when our congested streets and warming planet need us riding more. Further service cuts now will reduce the social and economic returns promised by the government’s planned $14.9-billion investment. Across North America, many new rail infrastructure lines have underperformed relative to expectations, and research points to under-investment in feeder bus service as a possible culprit. Laying new tracks while existing service is gutted is like building new emergency rooms while cutting funding for ambulances. New transit infrastructure can also yield better results when paired with better land use policy. Federal investments should come with binding expectations that localities will rezone areas around federally supported infrastructure to increase housing affordability and supply. This could include inclusionary zoning, eliminating parking requirements, and targeted upzoning. Consider two scenarios. In the first, a new light rail station is proposed to serve a sprawling neighbourhood of detached, single-family units from which it is uncomfortable or too far to walk to the proposed station. In the second scenario, a new station is proposed to serve new tower communities with ground floor retail, limited parking, inclusionary units, and pedestrian-friendly paths to the station. Decades of research suggests that the second scenario will undoubtedly yield more ridership, more active travel, and safer streets. The federal government has taken important first steps on building 21st century transit networks to support our growing population. To ensure these investments succeed, federal policy-makers must prevent existing service from disappearing while bringing local land use policy along for the ride. Dr. Matthew Palm is a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Toronto Scarborough. He is also the research co-ordinator of the Mobilizing Justice partnership, which seeks to advance equity in transportation planning across Canada. Dr. Palm’s 31 academic publications cover transportation and housing planning spanning Canada, Australia, and the United States. The Hill Times