Don’t underestimate Poilievre

OAKVILLE, ONT.—Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu once said, “Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge.” This saying perfectly sums up why I don’t like to make predictions about future elections. Simply put, the more you know about politics, the more you understand how random and unforeseeable variables can alter the trajectory of political events in ways which are difficult, if not impossible, to predict. This is why I always cringe a bit whenever a journalist or a pundit confidently predicts that Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre is unelectable, that there’s no way that he’ll ever beat the Liberals in a federal election. I even hear some Conservatives make such claims. Of course, I get why people think Poilievre would be doomed to lose. After all, many deem him to be too populist or too right-wing or too fractious. And, yes, perhaps Canadians would reject Poilievre's message today, but the question is, will they reject it in two or three years? Nobody really knows. But keep this in mind: history is full of politicians who won elections despite being labelled by their opponents as too populist or too right-wing or too fractious. The list includes Ronald Reagan, Mike Harris, Stephen Harper, Donald Trump, Rob Ford, and Doug Ford. My point is, Canada’s political climate might change in a way that makes Poilievre’s aggressive populist message an electoral asset. To see what I mean, let’s consider some of the variables at play. First off, one key strength of the Liberal Party is that, generally speaking, voters like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s “sunny ways” persona. But what if that changes? Perhaps in two years Canadians will be looking for something different, maybe looking for a stronger leader, a leader who can make tough decisions. If that’s the case, it’ll be advantage Poilievre. Then there’s what I like to call the “Hand of God” variable, which is to say, what if an event occurs that no one’s expecting or prepared for right now? Consider, for example, what would happen if, in the next year or so, the Liberal government is hit with some sort of damaging scandal. That could certainly change the political equation in a way that helps Poilievre. Another unpredictable variable is the economy. Will Canada suffer a recession? Will inflation continue to plague consumers? Or what about COVID? Will we have another outbreak? Will it necessitate more economic lockdowns? My point is, if Canada seems to be heading in the wrong direction, that could help Poilievre. Finally, the most important variable in politics is also the most erratic. I’m talking about human emotion. The fact is a lot of voters make political decisions from their heart. So, what will be the Canadian public’s most dominant emotion when the next election rolls around? Anger? Fear? Contentment? Again, nobody really knows. As Star Trek’s Captain James T. Kirk put it, “We humans are full of unpredictable emotions that logic alone cannot solve.” So, depending on how all these variables play out, it could have an important impact on what happens in the next federal election. So yes, we can make educated guesses about the electoral future, but that’s about it. By the way, it’s equally possible that all the variables at play could work against Poilievre should he win the leadership. In fact, I’d argue that whoever becomes the next Conservative leader will have to be considered an underdog. The Liberals, despite all their problems, still have a lot of advantages working for them that will make them hard to beat. All I’m saying is, it’s wrong to declare Poilievre a loser before the game even begins. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times