A dangerous game of nuclear poker in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was an extraordinary gamble. Like a player in a high-stakes poker game, he thought his cards were unbeatable, but as the world is seeing, Ukraine has played a surprisingly strong hand. With the assistance of the United States and like-minded nations, Ukraine is putting up an unexpectedly tenacious resistance, while Russia is continuing to suffer grievous losses of troops, equipment, and prestige. As this game plays out, the stakes for Russia are steadily rising and now the very survival of Putin’s regime is at risk. The Russian president simply must win, or risk a coup, or even a trial in the International Criminal Court. Faced with such grim prospects, Putin may be forced to play his last card in the game—the nuclear card—to ensure victory for Russia. While onlookers may believe that the use of a nuclear weapon is inconceivable in this or any conflict, an increasingly desperate Russian president, left with no good options, may be forced to play the nuclear card. It is not difficult to imagine a scenario that leads to the threatened use, or actual use, of a tactical nuclear weapon to bring this conflict to an end on Putin’s terms. How might the nuclear threshold be crossed? John Manza served as the NATO assistant secretary general for operations. Photograph courtesy of John Manza First, the continuing delivery of effective weapons by the West to the Ukrainian forces brings the conflict to a stalemate. Drones by the hundreds continue to locate, identify, and target Russian combat units, logistics, and command and control elements. Long range cannon and rocket fire, directed by Ukranian drone operators and supported by U.S. intelligence, punish the Russian forces from previously inconceivable distances. Closer in, Ukrainian infantry continue to destroy Russian armored vehicles with hand-held precision guided weapons, like the Javelin and NLAW, and with suicide drones like the Switchblade. Russian troops become increasingly immobile, afraid to move for fear of identification and death. As Russian morale in the field plummets, rumbles of a coup are heard in Moscow. Next, Putin and his generals seek to turn the tide through the massive application of firepower. More Russian bombers and fighters streak over Ukrainian units, delivering thermobaric and cluster munitions. Russian artillery and rocket units, laid out Second World War style, en masse, rain fire down upon Ukrainian forces and cities. Thousands of Ukrainian troops and civilians are slaughtered, but as with many past conflicts, such losses only solidify the resistance. Despite the heavy application of firepower, the battlefield calculus does not change at the tactical and operational levels. Although the destruction is immense, the battlefield lines do not move. As in the Great War, neither side is capable of a major breakthrough and losses on both sides mount. Putin begins to fear for his personal survival and the survival of his autocratic regime. His inner circle feels pressured as well, having been party to major decisions that led to the invasion, and the subsequent conduct of the war. The Russian president’s top field commanders are also on the hook, among them Army General Aleksandr Dvornikov, who has a well-established track record of abusing civilian populations in Syria and Ukraine. Dvornikov knows that if the regime falls, he will also be imprisoned in the Hague, perhaps along with other regime supporters, who saw victory for Russia as the only viable option. In the final play of his hand, Putin tells Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukraine must surrender, or Russia will resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. This is in line with the Russian policy of “escalating to de-escalate.” In layman’s terms, this policy relies upon threatening the first use of a nuclear weapon in an escalatory step that goes far beyond one that our Western democracies would ever consider. To amplify the threat, Putin conducts an above-ground demonstration of a nuclear weapon in far eastern Russia. To demonstrate his capabilities and intent, Putin follows up with tactical missile strikes on Ukraine, using nuclear-capable missiles, armed only with dummy warheads. The world stands still as the potential use of a battlefield nuclear weapon is absorbed. Will the taboo on the use of nuclear weapons be broken? Pragmatism takes over, and despite the sincere words of support for Ukraine’s fledgling democracy, praise for the bravery of their forces, and the billions of dollars in military aid provided to Ukraine, support for a continued war rapidly dries up. In the final analysis, the Western allies are not ready to risk nuclear war with Russia to save Ukraine. Zelenskyy grudgingly relents. He agrees to stop fighting, he gives up claims to the Donbas and Crimea and pledges not to join NATO. Putin saves face, having achieved his most important objectives, but Russia remains an international pariah. Europe settles into a new security reality, with a new Iron Curtain running down the eastern flank of NATO. Moldova and Georgia, not members of NATO, are left hanging in the wind. John Manza served as the NATO assistant secretary general for operations and is a professor at the National Defense University. His views do not represent those of the National Defense University or the Department of Defense. The Hill Times

A dangerous game of nuclear poker in Ukraine

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A dangerous game of nuclear poker in Ukraine

How might the nuclear threshold be crossed? Former NATO assistant secretary general John Manza outlines the potential playbook.

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