Russian ambitions reduced, but bloody stalemate likely in Ukraine

OTTAWA—When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the world was shocked and appalled. On paper, it was such a one-sided affair that it could scarcely be described as a conflict. The big mighty Russian war machine was simply going to victimize a defenceless Ukraine in a matter of hours or days. During the opening salvos, the U.S. administration was so convinced of a quick Ukrainian defeat that it reportedly offered then-little-known President Volodymyr Zelenskyy safe passage out of Kyiv. He famously retorted: “I don’t need a lift, I need ammunition.” This defiant statement proved to be the sparkplug that ignited Zelenskyy’s meteoric ascension to international superstar status. In the weeks to follow, the freshly bearded countenance of Zelenskyy, replete in his now-trademark green T-shirt, has become omnipresent on western media news broadcasts. While Zelenskyy may be the face of Ukrainian resistance, the Ukraine Army surprised all of those armchair generals who predicted a speedy Russian victory. Armed with the latest in NATO heavy weaponry training, the Ukrainian military has proven to be a highly capable battlefield force. Almost from the outset, the Russian military has proven itself to be the opposite. Strategically, the initial Russian thrusts into Ukraine seemed to be predicated on a virtually unopposed, swift capture of Kyiv. Captured Russian vehicles reportedly contained dress uniforms that the Russian soldiers were to wear during their victory parade in Kyiv. However, almost as soon as the Russian juggernaut rolled across the Belarus border, the wheels began falling off. Literally. When Ukrainian resistance blunted, then halted, the Russian advance, it suddenly became apparent that the mighty Russian military was lacking in logistics, poorly trained, and completely unmotivated to wage a war of aggression against the Ukrainians. It was quite a shock to discover that the mighty boogieman that has caused the 30-member NATO military alliance to tremble in fear all these years is nothing but a paper tiger. It was probably also quite a shock for Putin to discover that his generals were lying to him about the effectiveness of his fighting forces. For the first few days of the “special military operation” in Ukraine, the Kremlin maintained that it was essentially a bloodless walk in the park. Unfortunately, as time marched on and the Russian military columns did not, the fiasco that was unfolding in Ukraine became impossible to contain. There were simply too many images of knocked out Russian armour, dead soldiers, and prisoners of war to keep the bitter truth from leaking out. In early April, six weeks into the fighting, as Russian forces retreated from northern Ukraine, Putin’s spokesman had to grudgingly admit that the losses suffered to that point had been “significant.” With peace talks stalled, Putin seems to be resigned to saving face by reducing his stated objectives. Russia would no longer attempt to occupy all of Ukraine, but instead its military would look to expand the pro-Russian separatist territories of Luhansk and Donetsk. However, at this point in the fighting, it would appear that even such a limited “success” may be too far-reaching for a badly mauled Russian army. The current self-imposed deadline for Putin to achieve his victory is May 9, to coincide with the anniversary of the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945. However, given the virtual flood of heavy weaponry pouring into Ukraine from supportive NATO states, including Canada, and the emboldened morale of Ukraine’s victorious defenders, I foresee this conflict devolving into a bloody months-long stalemate. The pro-Russian Ukrainians of Luhansk and Donetsk are far more motivated than the regular Russian army, because they are fighting for their homes. These separatist forces first declared independence from the Kyiv regime in 2014, and have ferociously resisted all attempts by the Ukrainian military to reclaim the territory. Given the widespread violence and bloodshed of this current conflict, a peaceful reconciliation may not be possible. If a negotiated settlement ends up resulting in the separation of these territories, only in his own mind could Putin believe himself to have won a victory. Instead, by invading Ukraine, and losing the war, he has shown the world that his army was a sham this whole time. When the Russian people realize the extent of Putin’s martial impotence, it seems unlikely he will be able to remain in power. One can hide the truth—just not forever. Scott Taylor is the editor and publisher of Esprit de Corps magazine. The Hill Times