The 70-year nightmare materializes: a madman with nukes

OTTAWA—This will be the end of Vladimir Putin. It’s just a question of how long it takes and how many thousands (millions?) of people he takes down with him. World leaders struggling to contain the Russian dictator’s reckless attack on Ukraine are trying to avoid talking about it out loud. But it’s obvious Putin is using nuclear weapons blackmail to provide Russia with cover to conduct its invasion without interference from the West. “Whoever tries to hinder us, and even more so, to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate. And it will lead you to such consequences that you have never encountered in your history,” Putin said in his unbalanced harangue as he launched a military invasion last week. Oddly, the phrasing was similar to that chosen by Donald Trump in his implied 2017 threat to use nuclear weapons, if need be, against North Korea, in which the then-U.S. president said any North Korean threats to the U.S. would “be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” As if there is some kind of strongman code or something? Putin, who has brandished the nuclear sword before in relation to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, is doing what has been unthinkable for 70 years. The result is shaking up the architecture of power and anti-conquest norms that have for the most part kept the peace in Europe since the Second World War despite the presence of weapons of mass destruction. And no one can calculate how far the Russian ruler will go. Putin has had some success using the military to reach his international and regional goals, both in propping up Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad and in annexing Crimea. And he has been working for years to destabilize democracy around the world, weaken NATO, and reduce the U.S. role in Europe. His obsessive grievance about the dissolution of the Soviet Union, his revanchist regional ambitions, and his outrage against Ukraine and the West are not good signs, with many analysts wondering if he has lost his connection to reality. Certainly, a naked, unprovoked invasion of a neighbouring country in the name of restoring the long-lost greatness of the fatherland might qualify. That and Putin’s obvious quest to be personally taken more seriously on the world stage—no matter at what the cost to world peace, human life, and Russians themselves. Speaking at an emergency United Nations session on Feb. 28, Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UN, said if Putin wants to “kill himself,” there’s no need to do it through nuclear war. The Russian ruler could just do as Hitler did, Kyslytsya told delegates. That thousands of Russians have come out to protest against Putin’s war says a lot when you consider the very harsh treatment they are likely to receive at the hands of the police for joining these outlawed demonstrations. Speaking at an emergency United Nations session on Feb. 28, Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UN, said if Putin wants to ‘kill himself,’ there’s no need to do it through nuclear war. Screenshot courtesy of YouTube/C-Span But it will take time to see if internal dissent and the impact of sanctions will make much, if any, difference. Nonetheless, as others have noted, Putin has unintentionally consolidated Europe’s disputatious leaders, raised significant uncertainties for Putin’s super-rich Moscow cronies and Russia’s economy and touched off global revulsion. The Russian dictator may not care how much average citizens of his country suffer economically. But he might care about the international outrage and rejection of his one-man horror show, particularly if the Chinese—currently covering for Russia—decide they’re not sure they like being associated with an ongoing, bloody crime against humanity displayed in real time on untold worldwide media platforms. Much depends on Ukraine’s ability to hold out against Russia’s army. If Putin succeeds, the question will have to be asked: what’s his next step? Would he use the risk of nuclear war to try to extend his efforts to force former Soviet republics back into the Russian domain? In the widest sense, the stakes for the future of democracy and the rule of law internationally couldn’t be higher. Putin is clearly aligned with Chinese President Xi Jinping in opposition to U.S. military and economic influence and efforts to promote pluralistic democracy—a struggle that is likely to dominate international affairs for many years to come. The domestic political impact in the U.S. is also likely to be pronounced. If nothing else, one could argue that, under normal circumstances, Trump’s expressed admiration for Putin’s pre-invasion tactics regarding Ukraine might remind voters of just who they are dealing with when the former president runs again in 2024. But American politics is beyond rational analysis, with some on the right justifying Putin’s action, and Trump, rather than focusing on Putin at this moment, chooses instead to slam Justin Trudeau for the prime minister’s efforts to end an illegal three-week occupation of Canada’s capital by insurrectionists using trucks as a political weapon. Les Whittington is a regular columnist for The Hill Times. The Hill Times