How many leaders will COVID blowback claim?

OTTAWA—Eventually we’ll find out how and why the Ottawa police managed to inspire an outpouring of illegal vehicle blockades and anti-government marches around the world. Ottawa police chief Peter Sloly unfortunately was clearly the wrong person at the wrong time. He admitted the local police mishandled the insurrection in the capital but then said his force wouldn’t be doing anything about it until the OPP or RCMP or the military bailed him out. In any case, Sloly has stepped down as police chief and Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson would be finished, too, if he hadn’t previously announced he would be resigning. The wider question is how many other leaders in Canada will see their careers short-circuited as a result of the anti-COVID frustrations that right-wing extremists exploited to create a chaotic political explosion. With the risks of inaction outweighing the hazards of getting directly involved, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau moved to bring in the Emergencies Act on a geographically limited scale in hopes of ending the insurrections in Ottawa and elsewhere. As of Monday, it was unclear exactly how the newly authorized use of force would be effectively implemented, how much support the Liberals would receive in the Commons beyond that of the NDP, and how it would play out with the public and premiers. Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta all opposed it for their jurisdictions in advance, but Ontario seemed supportive. The insurrectionists’ plan to have Trudeau removed from office right away will obviously not happen. But the uproar probably will end up capping Trudeau’s tenure. Fairly or not, the Mad Max rebellion likely ensures that Trudeau hands off his party’s leadership before the next election (assuming he has not already decided to do so). The prime minister's stance on the insurrection seemed to be initially guided by the fact that most Canadians are vaccinated and favour anti-COVID mandates. At the same time, he was clearly sandbagged by a national intelligence failure, the unexpected ineptitude of the Ottawa police, Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s lack of concern about Ottawa, and the hopelessly ineffective federal-provincial system. And his father’s use of the War Measures Act remains a political liability, at least in Quebec. But in a crisis that went on for weeks, the Liberal government wound up looking thoroughly indecisive and impotent, suffering from the same deep-seated, cautious incrementalism it has exhibited for six years. A quick resolution of the COVID-related rebellion might revive Trudeau’s standing. But it’s more likely he will be remembered for his ineffective utterances and his government’s engagement in the seemingly endless buck-passing about who should keep the Parliamentary Precinct from being occupied by hordes of agitators. More damaging in the long run for Trudeau may be the image of him, like some overwhelmed developing country leader, being offered help to restore order by Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and U.S. President Joe Biden. Polls show a loss of support for Trudeau as a result of all this—an ironic COVID-driven twist for a prime minister who authorized an unprecedented $500-billion in pandemic support payments of every imaginable kind. If indeed the insurrection closes Trudeau’s prime ministerial options, he won’t be alone. The upsurge of right-wing populist fervour bubbling up from the anti-government convoys no doubt helped convince the Conservatives to unceremoniously toss out would-be moderate Erin O`Toole as leader. The unpredictable chain of events initiated by some alt-right, Trump-loving populists in Western Canada a month ago could also upend the leadership hopes of Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre. Although seen by many as a shoo-in, Poilievre took an immense risk by continuing to support the insurrectionists after his party changed position and called for the rebellion to end when the threat it posed to the economy made it a political loser. Poilievre tried Feb. 14 to backpedal a bit by saying he opposed blockades even though he supports the protests. At the provincial level, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has moved to scrap COVID restrictions in a bid to improve his popularity, which has been badly undercut by his handling of the health emergency. Kenney, who faces a leadership review this spring, claimed the decision had nothing to do with the trucker blockades in his province. But NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh accused Kenney and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, who also recently pulled all COVID health measures, of caving to the agitators. After weeks of dithering, Ontario Premier Doug Ford tried to balance a get-tough policy on the insurrectionists with a move to quickly dismantle anti-COVID restrictions. Despite widespread public criticism of his earlier approach to pandemic protection policies, Ford holds a strong advantage over a split opposition as he prepares for a June election. But polls show substantial volatility among Ontario voters, and Ford will have to hope over the next few months that police can keep U.S. border crossings in his province open and that dismantling anti-COVID rules doesn’t lead to another serious outbreak of the virus. Les Whittington is a regular columnist for The Hill Times. The Hill Times

How many leaders will COVID blowback claim?

The wider question is how many other leaders in Canada will see their careers short-circuited as a result of the anti-COVID frustrations that right-wing extremists exploited to create a chaotic political explosion.

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How many leaders will COVID blowback claim?

The wider question is how many other leaders in Canada will see their careers short-circuited as a result of the anti-COVID frustrations that right-wing extremists exploited to create a chaotic political explosion.

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