Suppose they gave an election and nobody won

It would be very easy to simply slide alongside the emerging narrative that the 44th Canadian general election was a waste of time, a waste of money, and an empty exercise where the hopes and dreams of political junkies met their maker. To be fair, the Liberals were indeed hoping for a majority and fell short. The Conservatives wanted to form a government and that did not happen. The Bloc seemed poised to make significant gains in Quebec and ended up with only one additional seat. The NDP were looking to capitalize on the general dissatisfaction of the two major parties but that failed to materialize. The Green Party may have felt an election would bring needed focus to the rank and file and shift attention away from their ongoing internal strife, it didn’t play out that way. The PPC exceeded expectations, but did not break through with a seat. In fact, the polling numbers during the election suggested we might have been headed for a constitutional situation, where the party with the most seats is prevented from testing the confidence of the House by an incumbent prime minister and a deal with one of the other opposition parties. Short of a majority, the election result was probably the least complicated outcome, in terms of who is in charge and the ease of transition into the next Parliament. Finally, the Greek chorus of the right-wing media seemed to exhaust every possible negative Trudeau story and failed to move the needle. Add to this mix some insightful analysis concerning the popular vote and some very useful projections about alternative outcomes and the fun just continues. Not to overstate the obvious, but to see the popular vote number as anything other than a data point and ignore the history and evolution of our Confederation would be similar to stating that if triples now retroactively counted for runs in a major league baseball game, the Toronto Blue Jays would have won 12 more games this season. So, let’s take a shot at the silver linings, or lessons, for the individual political parties here. Although the PPC did not win a seat, the party did put pressure on the right policy flank of the Conservative campaign. In fact, there are probably somewhere between five and eight seats where they had a direct impact on the result, none to the benefit of the Conservatives. However, it should also be noted that the anti-COVID-measures crowd, and their antics, gave the Liberals a badly needed shot in the arm at a point in the campaign when they really needed it. I will resist the temptation to publicly thank them, but I will point out that a couple of these idiots may have been entertaining while a couple thousand of them will be dangerous. The sad reality about a useful idiot is that they will continue to be an idiot long after they cease to be useful. The Green Party had a devastating campaign, but the issue of climate change was an important driver of actual ballot-box behaviour. Let’s hope the party puts its issues behind it and get back to being the positive force for change that Canada needs right now. The NDP won an additional seat and Jagmeet Singh seemed to connect with younger Canadians. They should also have learned a valuable lesson about party platforms that are born in PowerPoint but die in Excel. The Bloc maintained its third place standing in the House and is well-positioned to make concrete demands in exchange for strategic support. The Conservatives sent out an interesting missive on election day that attempted to pre-position a Liberal minority as an actual win for Erin O’Toole. I can’t possibly compete with that level of creative optimism, so I will jump right to lessons. The Liberal dominance in urban Canada is blocking any real growth in the Conservative seat count. Whether they choose to double down on their existing policies or examine and adjust those policies, is the soul-searching exercise that the party is now engaged in. There is a basic rule in politics, and in life, that you try not to do your opponents' work for them. When the Liberals dropped the writ without a clear rationale, they handed their opponents a key issue and spent at least the first half of the campaign on their heels. They managed to get it together in time to win the most seats and can now choose between the Bloc and NDP as their dance partner going forward. This may all be well and good, but did Canadians get value for their money? The short answer, yes. Canadians now enjoy a hybrid Parliament that includes the benefits and cooperation necessary to make a minority government work, along with the stability that comes with no party wanting to be seen causing the next election. In addition to the political risk, the lack of the resources necessary to fight another election in the next couple years, and the need for a number of the parties to go through leadership reviews or contests, will make the usual snap election threat a bit of a hollow gesture on both sides. The long answer, also yes. If you look at the seat count of the parties from the last Parliament that supported the government’s COVID-19 response and recovery plan, it is clear that the government now has a clear mandate to spend at unprecedented levels and exercise reasonable authorities to get Canadians to the other side of this pandemic. The 2019 election provided no such mandate and this election allowed Canadians to speak on that issue, and the system is stronger because of it. I should note that this argument would have been considerably weakened, or even eliminated, if Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition had not taken every available opportunity in the last Parliament, even using supply day motions, to formally register their disagreement with the direction the government was going and to express a clear lack of confidence in the government and, by extension, the need for an immediate election. In summary, there is plenty to do, and Canadians have told their federal politicians to get back at it. If you must pass judgment on the value question, how about you wait and see where we are in a year from now, or three. Joe Jordan was a second-generation Liberal Member of Parliament and is currently a senior consultant at BlueSky Strategies Group in Ottawa. The Hill Times

Suppose they gave an election and nobody won

There is plenty to do, and Canadians have told their federal politicians to get back at it. If you must pass judgment on the value question, how about you wait and see where we are in a year from now, or three.

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Suppose they gave an election and nobody won

There is plenty to do, and Canadians have told their federal politicians to get back at it. If you must pass judgment on the value question, how about you wait and see where we are in a year from now, or three.

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