Vaccine distribution and economic recovery projections favour Liberals in August-October election window, say lobbyists

The iron is hot for the Liberals to try to secure a majority government by calling for an election this fall, while the Conservatives would benefit more if Canadians don’t go to the polls until 2023, according to some federal lobbyists. “I think it would be political malpractice if didn't go to the polls. It won't get any better than it is right now for them,” said Elliot Hughes, a senior adviser at Summa Strategies who previously worked in the Liberal finance and defence ministers’ offices. “All would suggest that now is the right time for the government and for Canadians to choose which party they want running the country as we emerge from the pandemic.” Elliot Hughes, a senior adviser at Summa Strategies: 'I think it would be political malpractice if didn't go to the polls. It won't get any better than it is right now for them.' Photograph courtesy of Twitter The Liberal Party has yet to announce an intention to trigger a snap election, but Mr. Hughes said one is likely between late summer and early fall. The next fixed date for an election is Oct. 16, 2023. The most important factor that could motivate the Liberals to move to an election sooner rather than later is Canada’s procurement of vaccine doses, according to Mr. Hughes. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) announced during a press conference in Moncton, N.B., on July 27 that Canada had received 66 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines, which is enough to fully vaccinate every eligible Canadian over the age of 12. During the press conference, Trudeau referred to a promise he made in winter to secure sufficient vaccines for all eligible Canadians by the end of September, and said he had fulfilled that promise two months early. The procurement of vaccines creates a “good tailwind” the Liberals will want to ride into an election, according to Mr. Hughes. “The government's going to be touting that for a long, long time. Vaccines are up, in terms of both procurement and Canadians getting jabbed themselves. It seems to be going in the right direction,” said Mr. Hughes. Another factor that favours the Liberals in a snap election could be the reopening of the economy, according to Mr. Hughes. The Bank of Canada released a monetary policy report on July 14 that painted an optimistic picture for Canada’s economy. The report forecasts economic growth of about six per cent this year, slowing to about four and a half per cent in 2022. “The economic recovery in Canada and other major economies has progressed despite recent waves of COVID-19. The recovery is expected to strengthen as the pandemic and related restrictions ease,” reads the report. “In Canada, although economic growth in the first half of this year was weaker than estimated, it should pick up strongly in the third quarter as the economy reopens.” If an election isn’t called by the fall, Mr. Hughes said the Conservative Party stands to benefit the most. Conservative Party Leader Erin O’Toole (Durham, Ont.) became leader of the party on Aug. 24, 2020, and could use more time to establish himself, he said. “I think Erin O’Toole still needs to present himself to Canadians. Giving him more time to do so just allows for his profile to grow in people's minds,” said Mr. Hughes. Matthew Conway, a senior consultant at the Capital Hill Group. 'I think regarding an election, unless there's a major development, I think the train has pretty much left the station.' Photograph courtesy of Facebook Matthew Conway, a senior consultant at the Capital Hill Group, said Mr. O’Toole has been limited in his ability to introduce himself to Canadians during the pandemic due to the limited opportunities for in-person events. Mr. Conway previously assisted with Mr. O’Toole’s Conservative leadership campaign in 2017 as a Quebec field organizer. “Canadians have had other things going on, and the truth of the matter is, people don't actually know who Erin O'Toole is yet,” said Mr. Conway. “It's to the advantage of the Conservatives to allow him to go into communities. But that being said, I think regarding an election, unless there's a major development, I think the train has pretty much left the station.” Muhammad Ali is a senior consultant at Crestview Strategy. 'I think it serves the Conservatives the most to have an election day further out. It gives more opportunity for Erin O’Toole to socialize himself with Canadians so they can better understand him understand what the conservative position is.' Photograph courtesy of Twitter Muhammad Ali, a senior consultant at Crestview Strategy and a former Hill staffer for two Liberal MPs, agreed that the Conservatives would benefit from more time before an election. “I think it serves the Conservatives the most to have an election day further out. It gives more opportunity for Erin O’Toole to socialize himself with Canadians so they can better understand him understand what the conservative position is,” he said. “There is a bit of a brand-building around Erin O’Toole. There's not clarity of what he stands for. He stands for a bit of everything.” Hunter Doubt is a consultant with Global Public Affairs. 'I think the biggest risk is that there is some sort of a big fourth wave, or if the reopening of the Canada-U.S. border causes some tremendous upsurge in new cases, then there's the risk of that.' Photograph courtesy of Hunter Doubt Hunter Doubt, the corporate secretary of the Government Relations Institute of Canada (GRIC), said the Liberals calling for an election by fall is pretty much set at this point, barring any new scandals. Mr. Doubt is also a senior consultant with Global Public Affairs. When asked if there could be any disadvantage for the Liberals in calling an election this year, he cited the possibility of a fourth wave related to COVID-19 variants. Although COVID-19 cases are declining in Canada, Variants of Concern (VOC) represent approximately 70 per cent of reported COVID-19 cases, according to an epidemiology report released on July 23 by the Public Health Agency of Canada. “I think the biggest risk is that there is some sort of a big fourth wave, or if the reopening of the Canada-U.S. border causes some tremendous upsurge in new cases, then there's the risk of that,” said Mr. Doubt. “Trying to get ahead of both of those things would probably be something are certainly looking at.” Kevin Bosch is the vice-president of public affairs with Hill+Knowlton Strategies. 'If you call the election now, we may see it get as bad as it's going to get during the campaign. Relatively speaking, it's much better in Canada. something we can control, manage and live with, compared to some of these states in the U.S. where they have very low vaccination rates.' The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Kevin Bosch, vice-president of public affairs with Hill+Knowlton Strategies and former deputy director of the Liberal Research Bureau on the Hill, said COVID-19 variants are “a big question mark,” whose impact on a potential election this year can’t be predicted. “If you call the election now, we may see it get as bad as it's going to get during the campaign. Relatively speaking, it's much better in Canada. something we can control, manage and live with, compared to some of these states in the U.S. where they have very low vaccination rates,” he said. “No one can know how it's going to affect us, although it will affect us to some regard.” Besides the Liberals, the party that stands to benefit most from an election in late summer or early fall is the NDP, according to Cameron Holmstrom, a consultant with Bluesky Strategy Group and former staffer for two NDP MPs. The NDP are third in the polls with 19.3 per cent, according to CBC News poll tracker on July 29, putting the party within range of potentially securing enough seats to make them the third largest party in the House of Commons. Cameron Holmstrom is a consultant for Bluesky Strategy Group. 'At this point, ready to go. This time around the party is probably as well financed as it was going into 2015.' Photograph courtesy of Bluesky Strategy Group.“At this point, ready to go,” said Mr. Holmstrom. “This time around the party is probably as well financed as it was going into 2015.” “Now the party's in a position to actually be able to fight that campaign, and do it full-force where we couldn't last time,” he added. A possible advantage to an election occurring this year is that Indigenous issues will likely play an important role in the campaigns of the party leaders, according to Mr. Holmstrom, who is a citizen of the Métis Nation. The issue of reconciliation with Indigenous peoples has been prominent in recent weeks, after the remains of 215 Indigenous children were discovered at a former residential school near the city of Kamloops in southern B.C. A similar announcement followed on June 24 with the discovery of 751 unmarked graves at the site of a former residential school in Saskatchewan. “My worry always is that our political parties say the right thing and never follow through, and they never get punished for it by the electorate,” said Mr. Holmstrom. “I'd like to think this might be one of those rare opportunities where the electorate actually holds our elected people to account on this. And the only way that’s really going to come is during a campaign.” Mr. Holmstrom said that, if an election were called this year, a party without a good answer to reconciliation wouldn’t be viable. “We're grieving, we're in pain, but at the same time we're sick of the nice words and platitudes, we want some bloody action,” he said. “I don't know how anyone can run a credible campaign in this environment without being able to speak to that.” Jesse Cnockaert is a Hill Times reporter who leads the policy briefings and covers federal lobbying and important federal legislation. The Hill Times

Vaccine distribution and economic recovery projections favour Liberals in August-October election window, say lobbyists

A federal election by fall could favour the Liberals, while the Conservatives would benefit from a later election date, according to some lobbyists.

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Vaccine distribution and economic recovery projections favour Liberals in August-October election window, say lobbyists

A federal election by fall could favour the Liberals, while the Conservatives would benefit from a later election date, according to some lobbyists.

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