Trudeau may not have the edge, but he is very much in the game

OTTAWA—It was a showcase of the titans, at least three of them. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh all showed up at the building trades unions from across Canada last week, a rare event when all three leaders come to the same event on the same day. At the six-month mark before the federal election, it presented a study in contrasts at the annual legislative conference of Canada’s Building Trades Unions. Some relevant background first. The three leaders attended this annual conference as they each courted the building trades unions who tend to be multi-partisan. Interestingly, before the leaders' appearances, Frank Graves of Ekos had shared his results on the political views of construction workers across the country. Notably, he found that a plurality of members supported the Conservatives with 41 per cent, the NDP with 23 per cent, and the Liberals with 20 per cent. That said, I would guess the leadership in the room, from across the country were more NDP and Liberal. Party leaders each chose their format. Singh and Scheer delivered speeches, while Trudeau did a fireside chat with the new head of the organization, Arlene Dunn. Here’s my take on each. Singh was introduced by NDP MP Daniel Blaikie, a tradesperson by profession, which should have created a good space for him. Instead, the applause before and after his speech was courteous, maybe even tepid. The core of his speech was to announce a new policy to create a low interest fund for home owners to retrofit homes to increase their energy efficiency; a creative green jobs program. Except it was to an audience that does not work on home construction. The building trades unions primarily work on non-residential construction—roads, pipelines, schools, and mega-projects. This proposal was made to wrong audience. He might as well have talked about canola or cod-fishing. Further, he did not speak from notes much, which appeared to be a mistake. His sometimes conversational delivery was flat and his perhaps well-constructed written speech could have been delivered with the right high points. There was no flow to the speech which could have led to applause with this union audience. Singh’s conversational speeches work well with an NDP audience where he is serving up party orthodoxy en famille. It seemed like a tough audience from the moment he walked in and he didn’t seem to have prepared properly. It also begs the question of the level of political intelligence—did his office check the speech with Blaikie? Did Blaikie realize this miscue? Six months from an election, it suggested inadequate organization and coordination in the leader’s shop. Scheer was next and seemed particularly uncomfortable. Okay, union leadership is rarely Conservative, but come on. Did his party intel not tell him that the majority of construction workers could be voting for him? If you bothered to come here, make the best of it. Relax, crack a joke. People are now watching your every move and facial gesture. Let those dimples smile. Conservatives have successfully moved away from being the party of the rich elites, and have become the party of the common man (perhaps more than woman), and this ought to have been his crowd, but apparently not. Surprisingly he too spoke largely about home construction, but did touch on commercial construction. For Scheer, his reading a speech is rather stiff, so maybe in his case, more extemporaneous would have been better, like those rhetorical flourishes he has been showing of late in Question Period. Several people noticed that he did not use the word “union” a single time, using “organization” instead. I'm not kidding. But that suggested that he is not a fan of unions and/or that his base would not want him cavorting with the maligned labour bosses. It seemed like a missed opportunity to broaden that base. Trudeau was the third leader to show up. He chose a conversation. Politically, he did what he does better—converse rather than deliver a speech, which he often does rather stiffly. More interesting was that he was on his game, a switch from recent weeks when the SNC-Lavalin has taken its toll on his effervescent style. Unlike his competitors, he knew the audience and zeroed in well on what they were interested in. He started with reminding them of how the Liberals had reversed two anti-union bills that the Harper government had put in place, suggesting it’s never too late to remind your audience of what you did years ago if it’s important to them. Stating the importance of unions to the economy was one of the high points; it wasn't a big deal really, but his good fortune was that such a statement would have been too pedantic for the NDP leader and too difficult to utter for the leader of the Conservative Party. And as each one left the stage and walked out through the audience, there was a little surge of people wanting to shake hands with Singh and Scheer. Trudeau, on the other hand, was whisked off by the RCMP through a side door, but although he took a shorter walk through the audience, he shook more hands and responded to more folks who reached out for that touch. Despite the SNC-Lavalin issue, he evidently still has the natural magnetism and charisma. Not surprisingly, CBTU was completely satisfied. Their government relations manager, Don Arseneault, an experienced politico himself, suggested that with a federal election upon us, “it was important to provide the delegates with the opportunity to better understand where we were four years ago, where we are today, and where we want to be over the next four years.” Collectively, the leaders delivered, and all three were treated with respect. In the scheme of things, there were three speeches to just one audience, but here are my takeaways. One leader was far more prepared and hit many high points that he needed to. His command of the issues was far superior. He delivered the points with conviction and believability. His comfort with the issues was noticeable; certainly a product of experience and a natural style. This does not mean he has the edge in this fall’s election? This conference did not hear from the leaders of the three smaller parties: the Greens, the Bloc Québécois, and Max Bernier’s party—so their dynamics were not in play. It does suggest Trudeau is very much in the game and in a battle of the leaders, he is at least fully competitive. This not to say that he will win the election. Voters might well want to switch to a low-key imperfect leader, kind of a Chrétien after a Mulroney. Andrew Cardozo is president of the Pearson Centre. The Hill Times

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Trudeau may not have the edge, but he is very much in the game

At the six-month mark before the federal election, it presented a study in contrasts at the annual legislative conference of Canada’s Building Trades Unions.

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