Addressing minority rights in Ukraine, Latvia key to successful deterrence

The most significant challenge facing NATO right now is the increasingly deteriorating relationship between the alliance and Russia. Tensions are rising as both sides increasingly rely on hybrid and unconventional tactics that never pass the threshold of open war. We see Canada’s involvement in both Latvia, under Operation Reassurance, and in Ukraine, under Operation Unifier, as ineffective in deterring against unconventional tactics. Strong, well-established linkages between Russia and the Russian-speaking diaspora across eastern Europe have been one of the fundamental prerequisites for the country’s successful and prolonged engagement in hybrid warfare against the West. The NATO alliance has proven to be effective at deterring against military invasion, however, its capabilities to address the more intricate politically oriented facets of regional security must be improved. Chief among these is the deteriorating minority rights situation in the region. In the case of Latvia, relative to Ukraine, we find a more sustainable model of regional minority autonomy and rigid legal frameworks that mitigate against popular discontent and grievance among the sizeable Russian-speaking diaspora, thereby minimizing potential influence from Russia. With regard to media laws, even though 65 per cent of all broadcast media in the country is mandated to be in Latvian, considerable Russian-language television programming exists in the country. However, the situation is far from perfect, as Latvia recently toughened its educational requirements for minority languages, placing de facto constraints on education in the Russian language in a country where nearly a quarter of the population identify as Russian. Even though Latvia is experiencing minority-language rights backsliding, those challenges stand in stark contrast to the worsening minority rights situation in Ukraine where domestic political and economic conditions and increasing minority language, cultural, and political alienation over the last five years are facilitating an intervention by Russia under the guise of aid to its diaspora. We have already seen this process unfold in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. More recently, Ukraine passed a law eliminating the rights of ethnic minorities to education in their respective languages past Grade 4, sparking outrage among the Russian diaspora. Furthermore, all forms of media in minority languages have been considerably reduced under the pretext of Russian aggression in the east. Ukraine’s actions have triggered a confrontation with neighbouring Hungary, which sees its Hungarian-speaking minority along the Trans-Carpathia border gradually marginalized. Given that Hungary is in a position to block any efforts by Ukraine to gain entry into either the European Union or NATO, the stakes are considerable. For example, in a game of one-upmanship Hungary began to secretly offer Hungarian passports to members of its diaspora in Zakarpattia. In response, Ukraine threatened to expel the consul responsible for the operation. The confrontation, which shows no sign of abatement, only it makes it increasingly unlikely that Hungary would support a potential accession treaty for Ukraine to join the EU. Constraints on minority rights have been a key battle tactic utilized by Ukraine’s leadership in the midst of the frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine but the spillover of such policies beyond eastern Ukraine is proving to be counterproductive. Not only do they not deter Russia’s open or covert actions in the country, such restrictions on legal frameworks also produce a self-sabotaging effect that incentivizes Russia’s access into Ukraine via the increasingly agitated Russian-speaking diaspora across the country. Counterproductive policies such as these also diminish the country’s chances of integrating into the European Union. It is worth remembering that the accession treaty into the European Union must not only be signed by the candidate country but by representatives of all existing EU countries—a scenario which becomes increasingly unlikely as long as Ukraine has no lasting solution to minority rights. With its longstanding commitment to Ukraine, we see Canada’s presence within NATO, as well as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the United Nations, as an essential means of promoting and protecting minority rights in the region thereby mitigating democratic backsliding and disabling Russia’s key points of leverage in its near abroad. Still, it remains to be seen if and when Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland will bring a full accounting of this dismal state of affairs to Parliament. Given that Canada has significant investment in Ukraine through its military training program and bilateral development assistance, the stakes are considerable not only for Ukraine’s future but for Canada’s reputation as a defender of human rights. David Carment is a professor at Carleton University’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. Dani Belo is a PhD student at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. The Hill Times

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Addressing minority rights in Ukraine, Latvia key to successful deterrence

Canada’s presence in NATO is an essential means of promoting and protecting minority rights in the region.

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