The 51 ridings AFN says it targeted in the last election

Assembly of First Nations national chief Perry Bellegarde says he believes that First Nations voters are emerging as an electoral force in federal votes, singling out 51 ridings in the 2015 election where that presence influenced the final results. He also claimed that voter turnout in 2015 among First Nations people was the highest for any federal election. “The concept of dual citizenship, we’re embracing that,” he told The Hill Times in an extensive sit-down interview on Dec. 13. The 51-riding figure comes from a list developed by the AFN prior to the 2015 federal elections. It was based on First Nations population figures and the perceived closeness of the individual races. It’s hard to decipher, however, how significant the role Indigenous voters played in influencing the outcome in those ridings because of limited data. There are 2016 census numbers showing the number of people in each riding who identify as Indigenous, which can help gauge the size of the Indigenous electorate. But there are no available statistics on the number of eligible Indigenous voters in each riding, Indigenous turnout, and who they voted for. Elections Canada only tracks voting on First Nations reserves, but half of First Nations people live outside of such communities, and the on-reserve numbers are only categorized by province or territory. But looking at the 2015 results and census data, it's clear that the First Nations vote wielded significant influence in at least some of the 51 ridings. For example, NDP MP Niki Ashton won the northern Manitoba riding of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski by only 912 votes. The Indigenous population of the riding sits at around 65,000 people However, the impact was less pronounced in other contests listed by the AFN. In the Nova Scotia riding of Kings-Hants, Liberal MP and Treasury Board President Scott Brison cruised to re-election in 2015 by a margin of 24,349 votes. The riding's Indigenous population is listed at around 4,385 people. It should be noted that Mr. Brison only edged the second-place candidate in 2011 by 1,173 votes. Some ridings are also in a grey area, where credible date on the number of eligible First Nations electors, turnout, and which party they voted for are probably needed to reach a conclusion. Ridings with a modest Indigenous population with a modest margin of victory are likely to fall in this area. Complicating this is that fact recent observations have also noted that First Nations voters are split in party support, but tend to back NDP and Liberal candidates, with the Grits increasing their share of Indigenous votes the most out of all parties in 2015. The other variable to consider is First Nations turnout and the number of its eligible voters in each riding. There's no data that paint a full picture, and turnout and total eligible voters—for Indigenous and non-Indigenous voters—varies riding-by-riding. It's generally noted by Elections Canada, however, that turnout is slightly less than the national average among Indigenous voters. On-reserve voting was at 61.5 per cent in the last election, but only half of First Nations in Canada live on reserves. Here’s the list of 51 ridings also detailing the winning candidate, margin of victory in the election, the Indigenous population one year later, and overall turnout in the riding: No. Riding MP Party Margin of victory in 2015 election Indigenous pop. by %/total from 2016 census Overall turnout % 1. Labrador, N.L. Yvonne Jones Liberal (incumbent) 7,099 votes 43.7% 11,750 62.0% 2. Long Range Mountains, N.L. Gudie Hutchings Liberal 25,804 votes 23.57% 20,070 58.3% 3. Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, N.S. Darren Fisher Liberal (gain) 17,650 votes 4.66% 4,245 71.2% 4. Kings-Hants, N.S. Scott Brison Liberal (incumbent) 24,349 votes 5.31% 4,385 69.8% 5. Sydney-Victoria, N.S. Mark Eyking Liberal (incumbent) 24,644 votes 10.66% 7,525 68.7% 6. Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, Que. Romeo Saganash NDP (incumbent) 1,684 votes 38.15% 32,880 55.2% 7. Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia, Que. Remi Masse Liberal (gain) 6,737 votes 5.55% 3,860 60.4% 8. Becancour-Nicolet-Saurel, Que. Louis Plamondon Bloc Québécois (incumbent) 8,205 votes 1.77% 1,620 67.5% 9. Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Que. Diane Lebouthillier Liberal (gain) 2,460 votes 8.58% 6,360 60.8% 10. Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, Que. Pierre Nantel NDP (incumbent) 703 votes 0.98% 1,035 68.8% 11. Louis- Saint-Laurent, Que. Gerard Deltell Conservative (gain) 18,785 votes 3.19% 3,675 70.9% 12. Manicouagan, Que. Marilene Gill Bloc Québécois (gain) 4,995 votes 18.15% 16,460 56.7% 13. Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, Que. Bernard Genereux Conservative (gain) 272 votes 1.02% 935 63.6% 14. Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Ont. Carol Hughes NDP (incumbent) 2,405 votes 19.17% 14,990 65.7% 15. Brantford-Brant, Ont. Phil McColeman Conservative (incumbent) 6,452 votes 5.43% 6,935 65.2% 16. Kenora, Ont. Bob Nault Liberal (gain) 498 votes 46.81% 28,850 69.7% 17. London North Centre, Ont. Peter Fragiskatos Liberal (gain) 12,437 votes 2.31% 2,830 69.4% 18. Mississauga-Malton, Ont. Navdeep Bains Liberal (gain) 14,464 votes 0.4% 470 59.1% 19. Niagara Centre, Ont. Vance Badawey Liberal (gain) 2,295 votes 3.63% 3,890 65.6% 20. Nipissing-Timiskaming, Ont. Anthony Rota Liberal (gain) 11,032 votes 11.95% 10,350 68.3% 21. Sault Ste. Marie, Ont. Terry Sheehan Liberal (gain) 5,967 votes 12.68% 9,995 68.3% 22. Scarborough-Guildwood, Ont. John McKay Liberal (incumbent) 14,059 votes 1.18% 1,190 64.6% 23. Thunder Bay-Superior North, Ont. Patty Hajdu Liberal (gain) 9,730 votes 15.84% 12,835 68.7% 24. Timmins-James Bay, Ont. Charlie Angus NDP (incumbent) 3,034 votes 19.35% 15,815 61.1% 25. Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, Man. Niki Ashton NDP (incumbent) 912 votes 76.33% 65,415 58.1% 26. Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa, Man. Robert Sopuck Conservative (incumbent) 7,000 votes 26.51% 21,980 65.3% 27. Elmwood- Transcona, Man. Daniel Blaikie NDP (gain) 61 votes 13.59% 12,395 65.6% 28. Winnipeg Centre, Man. Robert-Falcon Ouellette Liberal (gain) 8,981 votes 18.51% 15,265 60.0% 29. Winnipeg North, Man. Kevin Lamoureux Liberal (incumbent) 18,209 votes 17.89% 16,940 58.4% 30. Winnipeg South Centre, Man. Jim Carr Liberal (gain) 16,891 votes 7.65% 6,900 76.3% 31. Battlefords-Lloydminster, Sask. Gerry Ritz Conservative (incumbent) 14,617 votes 24.08% 17,250 66.5% 32. Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Sask. Georgina Jolibois NDP (gain) 82 votes 70.91% 49,840 64.7% 33. Prince Albert, Sask. Randy Hoback Conservative (incumbent) 8,429 votes 30.63% 23,625 68.5% 34. Regina-Lewvan, Sask. Erin Weir NDP (gain) 132 votes 7.64% 6,970 74.6% 35. Regina-Qu’Appelle, Sask. Andrew Scheer Conservative (incumbent) 5,342 votes 20.98% 15,700 68.3% 36. Regina-Wascana, Sask. Ralph Goodale Liberal (incumbent) 10,621 votes 7.77% 6,410 74.6% 37. Saskatoon West, Sask. Sheri Benson NDP (gain) 2,520 votes 18.5% 15,140 66.4% 38. Edmonton Griesbach, Alta. Kerry Diotte Conservative 2,848 votes 10.06% 10,865 59.1% 39. Cariboo-Prince George, B.C. Todd Doherty Conservative 2,767 votes 16.64% 17,830 67.8% 40. Courtenay-Alberni, B.C. Gord Johns NDP (gain) 6,868 votes 9.36% 10,475 75.9% 41. Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, B.C. Alistair MacGregor NDP (incumbent) 7,515 votes 9.59% 10,160 75.7% 42. Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, B.C. Jati Sidhu Liberal (gain) 1,038 votes 11.54% 10,650 70.4% 43. Nanaimo-Ladysmith, B.C. Sheila Malcolmson NDP (gain) 6,898 votes 8.47% 10,125 75.0% 44. Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, B.C. Randall Garrison NDP (incumbent) 5,214 votes 5.63% 6,665 75.0% 45. Skeena-Bulkley Valley, B.C. Nathan Cullen NDP (incumbent) 11,595 votes 34.14% 30,020 68.3% 46. South Okanagan-West Kootenay, B.C. Richard Cannings NDP (gain) 4,952 votes 6.84% 7,635 72.6% 47. Surrey Centre, B.C. Randeep Sarai Liberal (gain) 6,479 votes 3.77% 4,465 60.5% 48. Surrey-Newton, B.C. Sukh Dhaliwal Liberal (gain) 13,267 votes 2.35% 2,670 67.9% 49. North Island-Powell River, B.C. Rachel Blaney NDP (gain) 8,500 votes 12.03% 12,475 74.6% 50. Yukon Larry Bagnell Liberal (gain) 5,959 votes 23.34% 8,195 75.8% 51. Northwest Territories Michael McLeod Liberal (gain) 3,389 votes 50.71% 20,860 63.4% The influence of the First Nations vote in 2015 is hard to gauge, but considering statistics published by Elections Canada following the 2015 elections, and population figures from the 2016 census, it certainly that Indigenous voters are bound to pack a greater punch in federal elections as time goes on. Population is growing, and voter turnout will rise again if it follows the trend of the last decade. Indigenous electorate is growing, and on-reserve First Nations voters are casting ballots in increasingly higher numbers The population of Indigenous people in Canada grew 42.5 per cent since 2006, more than four times the growth rate of the non-Aboriginal population in the same time. There are 1.67 million Indigenous people in Canada, accounting for about 5 per cent of the total population. The Indigenous population is young, and the federal government projects that sometime in the next two decades, the Indigenous population will grow to 2.5 million in the country. About half of First Nations, overwhelmingly the largest group of Indigenous peoples in Canada, live on reserves while half do not. There has also been a general upward trend in the number of on-reserve First Nations voters in recent elections. In the 2004 elections, on-reserve First Nations turnout was at 40.3 per cent, rising to 48.8 per cent in 2006. Although turnout sank to 42.4 per cent in 2008, it rose to 47.4 per cent in the Conservatives' majority victory in 2011 before peaking in 2015. The 2015 election marked the smallest turnout gap between on-reserve First Nations voters and the rest of Canada since Elections Canada began monitoring it in 2004. jlim@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

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The 51 ridings AFN says it targeted in the last election

While all 51 ridings AFN national chief Perry Bellegarde said were influenced by the First Nations vote probably weren't decided on that electorate, rising Indigenous turnout and population may drive the group's influence in federal politics in the generation ahead.

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