Trudeau government locking into promises it may not be able to keep

TORONTO—The Trudeau government seems intent on locking itself into promises that it may not be able to keep. The promise to balance the budget by a specific date (the fourth year of its mandate), the same approach as that of the previous Harper government, puts it into a future fiscal straightjacket that may require tax increases, big spending cuts, or delayed promises if the commitment is to be kept. Then there’s the promise on climate change—to do even better than meet the Harper government’s commitment on greenhouse gas reductions when it is far from having a strategy that would even meet the Harper government’s commitment. Both issues have to be addressed by late March or early April of the coming year. The fiscal course will have to be set out in the new government’s first budget if the government is to have fiscal credibility. Canada’s climate change action plan has to be completed by the end of March—within 90 days following the recently concluded Paris summit on climate change. The climate change action plan may turn out to be even more difficult than the fiscal strategy. The Trudeau government has committed to delivering on the commitment made by the Harper government last April, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030, but indicating it may aspire to do better, describing the Harper commitment as a floor. What does this mean? Canada will have to limit annual emissions to 524 megatonnes by 2030, about 15 years from now. In 2005, Canada’s emissions totalled 749 Mt and by 2013 were down slightly to 726 Mt, thanks mainly to actions by Ontario and British Columbia. So Canada has to find ways to reduce emissions by at least 202 Mt by 2030. This is a huge challenge in itself. But over the next 15 years Canada’s population and economy will continue to grow, which will put upward pressure on emissions. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau chaired a first ministers’ summit last month, where he and the provincial premiers launched discussions on how Canada will meet its commitment, mindful of the fact that Canada failed to meet its 1997 Kyoto commitment and its 2009 Copenhagen commitment. The Liberal platform, which is being treated as a serious set of commitments by the Trudeau government, declared that a Trudeau government would “partner with provincial and territorial leaders to develop real climate change solutions, consistent with our international obligations to protect the planet, all while growing our economy.” Within 90 days after the Paris climate change summit “formally meet to establish a pan-Canadian framework for combatting climate change.” It pledged to “establish national emission-reduction targets, and ensure that the provinces and territories have targeted federal funding and the flexibility to design their own policies to meet these commitments, including their own carbon pricing policies.” It promised that Canada “would do its part” to prevent average global temperatures from rising to more than 2 degrees Celsius above the level at the start of the 19th century industrial revolution. The world, currently, is at about halfway there. Just prior to the November first ministers’ summit, Alberta and Ontario set out their proposed policies. Ontario said it would join with Quebec in a cap-and-trade system. But the details remain vague though a detailed plan is promised for 2016. Ontario said it would set an interim emissions reduction target of 37 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030. Alberta pledged a province-wide carbon price of $30 a tonne on greenhouse gas emissions by 2017, the phasing out of all coal-fired power plants by 2020, strict controls on methane reduction and a cap on emissions from the oil sands at 100 Mt. The cap on oil sands production still allowed for a 43 per cent increase in oil sands emissions and would mean that the oil sands sector accounts for about 20 per cent of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions if the 2030 target is met. Neighbouring Saskatchewan said it will regulate large emitters rather than pricing carbon. What is clear is that the various provincial plans, so far, come nowhere near to meeting Canada’s Paris commitment, let alone the Trudeau government’s talk of an even greater reduction commitment. So how do we get to a credible climate change action plan by next spring? Before heading off to Paris, Trudeau declared that “the way forward for Canada will be in a solution that resembles Canada, that is shared values and shared desires for outcomes and different approaches to achieve those outcomes right across this great country.” At the same time, he said a Canadian solution would ensure “no further harm” to the oil industry though the oil sands sector is the largest single source of new greenhouse gas emissions in Canada. But can Trudeau, like some chairman of the board, just sit there with a pocket calculator adding up provincial commitments and hoping for the best? Not if he is serious about acting on climate change. As the Pembina Institute, Canada’s leading independent voice on climate, says, relying on the provinces will not ensure Canada’s meets its global promise. “It’s essential that the federal government works quickly to establish an ambitious and cohesive national climate plan, with full participation from each provinces and territory, to catalyze Canada’s transition to a low carbon economy.” The Trudeau government used the Paris summit to send a message that Canada was back. But bold words are no substitute for tough action. Having given the impression of climate leadership in Paris, the Trudeau government now has to deliver leadership back home. Right now, it is hard to have confidence that the Trudeau government has even an early draft of a plan that would truly deliver on its Paris pledge as well as its election promise to Canadians. It, not the provinces, is responsible for delivering on both. David Crane can be reached at crane@interlog.com. news@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

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Trudeau government locking into promises it may not be able to keep

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