Some of the hottest races to watch in election 2005-2006

St. Pauls, Ont. Minister of State for Public Health Carolyn Bennett vs. Global TV's Conservative Peter Kent. 2004 election results: LIB Carolyn Bennett: 58.39% CON Barry Cline: 20.38% NDP Norman Tobias: 15.73% One of the star candidates unveiled by the Conservatives in the lead-up to last spring's near-miss election, Peter Kent will be taking on the Liberals' Public Health Minister Carolyn Bennett in St. Paul's, Ont., who handily won the riding in 2004. The Tories are hoping that the familiar face of the former Global TV anchor will offset the minister's recent efforts to put together a coordinated response to the threat of a pandemic influenza outbreak, but it's clear that despite his high recognition factor, Mr. Kent will have a lot of ground to make up, given Ms. Bennett's popularity in the riding, and the expectation that she will be promoted to a fulltime Cabinet post if the Liberals are returned to power. Mr. Kent's team likely see the anticipated all-candidates' debate as his best shot at evening the odds - where Mr. Kent is a natural on camera. Ms. Bennett is far less comfortable. Advantage: Bennett Toronto-Danforth, Ont. NDP Leader Jack Layton vs. constitutional lawyer Liberal Deborah Coyne 2004 election results: NDP Jack Layton: 46.35% LIB Dennis Mills: 41.35% CON Loftus Cuddy: 6.21% Voters in Toronto-Danforth will have front-row seats to what could be the best electoral show in town as NDP Leader Jack Layton defends his hard-won turf against constitutional lawyer and former Trudeau paramour Deborah Coyne this time. Last time round, Mr. Layton beat out Liberal incumbent Dennis Mills by just over 2,000 votes, which may have been largely due to Mr. Mills' public stand against same-sex marriage, which cost him considerable support among left-leaning voters. In contrast, Ms. Coyne is seen as very much a classic Trudeau Liberal, and a strong supporter of civil rights and progressive social policy. Mr. Layton, however, has parlayed his party's position in the House of Commons from bystander to major player during the minority Parliament, and has seen his personal popularity increase substantially, both nationally and in the GTA region. Given the likelihood that no party will win a majority, even former Liberal voters may well decide to give Mr. Layton another mandate to "make Parliament work." St. Pauls, Ont. Minister of State for Public Health Carolyn Bennett vs. Global TV's Conservative Peter Kent. 2004 election results: LIB Carolyn Bennett: 58.39% CON Barry Cline: 20.38% NDP Norman Tobias: 15.73% One of the star candidates unveiled by the Conservatives in the lead-up to last spring's near-miss election, Peter Kent will be taking on the Liberals' Public Health Minister Carolyn Bennett in St. Paul's, Ont., who handily won the riding in 2004. The Tories are hoping that the familiar face of the former Global TV anchor will offset the minister's recent efforts to put together a coordinated response to the threat of a pandemic influenza outbreak, but it's clear that despite his high recognition factor, Mr. Kent will have a lot of ground to make up, given Ms. Bennett's popularity in the riding, and the expectation that she will be promoted to a fulltime Cabinet post if the Liberals are returned to power. Mr. Kent's team likely see the anticipated all-candidates' debate as his best shot at evening the odds - where Mr. Kent is a natural on camera. Ms. Bennett is far less comfortable. Advantage: Bennett Toronto-Danforth, Ont. NDP Leader Jack Layton vs. constitutional lawyer Liberal Deborah Coyne 2004 election results: NDP Jack Layton: 46.35% LIB Dennis Mills: 41.35% CON Loftus Cuddy: 6.21% Voters in Toronto-Danforth will have front-row seats to what could be the best electoral show in town as NDP Leader Jack Layton defends his hard-won turf against constitutional lawyer and former Trudeau paramour Deborah Coyne this time. Last time round, Mr. Layton beat out Liberal incumbent Dennis Mills by just over 2,000 votes, which may have been largely due to Mr. Mills' public stand against same-sex marriage, which cost him considerable support among left-leaning voters. In contrast, Ms. Coyne is seen as very much a classic Trudeau Liberal, and a strong supporter of civil rights and progressive social policy. Mr. Layton, however, has parlayed his party's position in the House of Commons from bystander to major player during the minority Parliament, and has seen his personal popularity increase substantially, both nationally and in the GTA region. Given the likelihood that no party will win a majority, even former Liberal voters may well decide to give Mr. Layton another mandate to "make Parliament work." Advantage: Layton Ottawa-Centre, Ont. Ottawa lawyer Liberal Richard Mahoney vs. community NDP activist Paul Dewar. 2004 election results: NDP Ed Broadbent: 41.05% LIB Richard Mahoney: 31.07% CON Mike Murphy: 19.03% The NDP is expected to pull out all the stops in an effort to retain this downtown Ottawa riding in the post-Broadbent era, but second-run candidate Richard Mahoney has been honing his campaign speeches since former Liberal incumbent Mac Harb left for the Senate in 2003. Although Mr. Mahoney lost to Mr. Broadbent by over 6,000 votes in 2004, most observers predict a far closer contest now that the former NDP leader is out of the race, although Mr. Broadbent has been singing the praises of NDP candidate Paul Dewarsince he announced his intention to retire earlier this year. With Mr. Broadbent at his side on the hustings, Mr. Dewar may well have a shot at keeping the seat in NDP hands, particularly given recent controversies surrounding Mr. Mahoney's lobbying activities. Mr. Mahoney, however, was widely considered to be the odds-on favourite before Mr. Broadbent entered the fray in 2004, and as a longtime supporter and confidant of Prime Minister Paul Martin, will be able to call on the full power of the Big Red Machine if he needs reinforcements during the campaign itself. Advantage: Too close to call. Ottawa West-Nepean, Ont. Former Ontario Conservative provincial minister John Baird vs. Liberal Lee Farnworth. 2004 election results: LIB Marlene Catterall: 41.78% CON Sean Casey: 39.37% NDP Marlene Rivier: 12.98% The announcement that longtime Liberal MP Marlene Catterall would be retiring was music to federal Conservative ears.The creeping suburbanization of the riding has eroded Liberal support, leading to a razor thin victory for Ms. Catterall in 2004 when she beat out Tory candidate Sean Casey by just over 1,000 votes. Earlier this year, the Conservatives nominated former Mike Harris Cabinet minister and long-time MPP John Baird to appeal to small-c suburban and rural voters. Bearing the Liberal standard in the upcoming race will be former city councillor and Algonquin College professor Lee Farnworth.Party insiders hope that her relative lack of political experience won't be a hindrance in the upcoming race, and are planning to paint Mr. Baird as a candidate of the far-right and a holdover from the Harris days, which could resonate in a traditionally centrist riding. Advantage: Baird Ottawa South, Ont. Incumbent Liberal David McGuinty vs. sponsorship whistleblower Conservative Allan Cutler. 2004 election results: LIB David McGuinty: 43.82% CON Alan Riddell: 34.82% NDP Monia Mazigh: 13.64% Just days before the election is set to begin, the Tories dropped a bombshell on Liberal incumbent David McGuinty with the announcement that sponsorship scandal celebrity whistleblower Allan Cutler will be representing the party in the civilservice dominated riding of Ottawa South. Although Mr. McGuinty cruised to an unexpectedly easy victory in 2004 over NDP candidate Monia Mazigh and Conservative contender Allan Ridddell,throwing Mr. Cutler into the race could change the dynamics considerably.The campaign in Ottawa South will undoubtedly focus almost entirely on the sponsorship scandal, and particularly the failure of the Liberal government to heed Mr. Cutler's warnings at the time that the program was active. What isn't so clear, though, is how well Mr. Cutler will perform in the adversarial environment of an election campaign. As the country's best-known whistleblower, he has enjoyed a lengthy honeymoon from politicians and the media alike. But when the gloves come off in an election campaign, Mr. Cutler may be facing pointed questions about his party's positions on other issues of key concern to voters in a riding that has voted Conservative only twice in the last century. As well, Mr. Cutler doesn't live in the riding. Advantage: Too close to call. Carleton Mississippi Mills, Ont. Incumbent Conservative Gordon O'Connor vs. party power broker and communications consultant Liberal Isabel Metcalfe. 2004 election results: CON Gordon O'Connor: 50.04% LIB Dan Wicklum: 33.99% NDP Rick Prashaw: 10.35% The Carleton-Mississippi Mills race is shaping up to be a battle of the lobby firms, as local Liberal Party doyenne Isabel Metcalfe, wife of Capital Hill Group principal Herb Metcalfe, goes toe to toe with former Hill and Knowlton lobbyist and retired brigadier-general Gordon O'Connor, who won the newly-created riding by over 1,000 votes in 2004. Mr. O'Connor has cut a distinguished profile as Conservative defence critic during his year as a Parliamentary rookie.The riding was held by the Canadian Alliance from 2000 until 2004, when the combination of the Conservative merger and electoral distribution gave Mr. O'Connor a berth to run for the new party. Ms. Metcalfe is considered a long shot to retake the riding for the Liberals, but her team is planning an aggressive campaign against the Tories, which will benefit from the collective strategic advice of not only Mr. O'Connor, but other Liberal heavy hitters for whom Ms. Metcalfe has provided considerable organizational and fund-raising support in the past. Advantage: O'Connor Windsor-Tecumseh, Ont. Incumbent NDP Joe Comartin vs. Liberal candidate Bruck Easton. 2004 Election Results: NDP Joe Comartin: 41.86% LIB Rick Limoges: 33.88% CON Rick Fuschi: 20.53% This is another compelling race to watch. Incumbent NDP MP Joe Comartin will be fighting for his riding against Liberal Bruck Easton,a former Progressive Conservative Party member and former president of the party. Mr. Comartin was asked about the race last week on the Hill in a scrum: "I think it is going to be interesting to see how the local electorate responds when you have got the president of the Progressive Conservative party switching just before the last election and supporting the Liberals and now running as a candidate when he has run as a Progressive Conservative on four occasions. I'm not sure how Windsorites are going to respond to that." Mr. Easton told the Brantford Expositor last week that he switched parties out of conviction. He said he made the decision in the last election when the Conservatives were riding high in the polls and talked about forming a majority government. Advantage: Too close to call Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Sask. Former NDP MP and NDP provincial justice minister and now Liberal candidate Chris Axworthy vs. incumbent Conservative Maurice Vellacott. 2004 election results: CON Maurice Vellacott: 46.64% LIB Chris Axworthy: 32.58% NDP Priscilla Settee: 17.81% Chris Axworthy,who left federal politics in 1999 to become Saskatchewan's Attorney General, switched teams in 2004 to run for the Liberals against incumbent Conservative Maurice Vellacott in the riding that he used to represent for the federal NDP. Although he came up short by over 5,000 votes, Mr. Axworthy will take a second kick at the can this winter. It's expected to be an uphill battle. Another as yet unknown factor is what tack the NDP, which has yet to nominate a candidate in the riding, will take. A strong NDP contender could siphon off just enough votes from the Liberals to assure Mr.Vellacott of an easy victory, but if the party chooses an unknown, Mr. Axworthy may be able to bring traditional NDP supporters over to the Liberals. Advantage: Vellacott Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Sask. NDP Nettie Wiebe vs. Conservative incumbent Carol Skelton 2004 election results: CON Carol Skelton: 44.84% NDP Dennis Gruending: 36.24% LIB Myron Luczka: 15.75% Although Carol Skelton held onto her seat by a comfortable 2,278-vote margin in 2004, the nomination of Prairie firebrand and well-known social activist Nettie Wiebe shows the NDP is far from ready to abandon this riding to the Tories. Although she's never run for federal office before, Ms. Wiebe has an impeccable pedigree for a Saskatchewan politician, including a tenure as president of the National Farmers Union and a stint as director for both the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives and The North-South Institute. She's also a professor at St. Andrew's College, and has written extensively on the challenges facing family farmers in Canada. Ms. Skelton, meanwhile, has performed well in the House, but isn't considered to be Cabinet material should the Conservatives win the election, which could leave voters wondering whether a feisty opposition MP would be a better value than a backbench Conservative, even under a Conservative Prime Minister. Advantage: Wiebe Regina-Qu'Appelle, Sask. Conservative incumbent Andrew Scheer vs. former NDP MP Lorne Nystrom vs. Liberal Allyce Herle. 2004 election results: CON Andrew Scheer: 35.76% NDP Lorne Nystrom: 32.69% LIB Allyce Herle: 27.84% In 2004, pundits predicted that then- Tory candidate Andrew Scheer, a former Hill staffer and a relative unknown, wouldn't be a factor in the race between NDP veteran Lorne Nystrom and Liberal challenger Allyce Herle, but Mr. Scheer confounded expectations when he snuck up the middle to take the lead with just 35% of the vote when the NDP/Liberal vote splintered, who wound up with 33 and 28%, respectively. Undaunted by the electoral upset, both Mr. Nystrom and Ms. Herle will be back on the hustings, but this time round, Mr. Scheer will have to watch his back, as the NDP and Liberal candidates won't forget to target the Tories during this campaign. Mr. Nystrom will also be highlighting his party's achievements in the minority parliament in order to persuade soft Liberal supporters to give Mr. Layton more seats, and hence, more influence, in the next House of Commons. Advantage: Too close to call Edmonton Centre, Alta. Deputy Prime Minister and Public Works Minister Anne McLellan vs. retired military pilot and investment advisor Laurie Hawn. 2004 election results: LIB Anne McLellan: 42.49% CON Laurie Hawn: 41.14% NDP Meghan McMaster: 9.11% It's another tough race in the offing for "Landslide Annie,"a.k.a. Anne McLellan who will attempt to hold onto the one remaining Liberal outpost in Alberta against Tory challenger Laurie Hawn, the same candidate she beat out by only 279 votes in the last election. Once again, Ms. McLellan's team will emphasize her influence as Prime Minister Paul Martin's second-in-command, and point to the need for Alberta to have a strong voice at the Cabinet table, rather than shut out the Liberals entirely. Mr. Hawn, who has taken up blogging since his last foray into politics in 2004, seems to be chomping at the bit to take on the Liberals on everything from criminal justice, to fiscal responsibility, although it's safe to predict that outrage over the sponsorship scandal will also make up a good part of his electoral onslaught. He has also accused Ms. McLellan of "attacking the institution of the family,"which suggests that same-sex marriage may also be a hot button topic in the largely conservative riding. Advantage: Too close to call Vancouver Centre, B.C. Former NDP MP Svend Robinson vs. incumbent Liberal Hedy Fry. 2004 election results: LIB Hedy Fry: 40.31% NDP Kennedy Stewart: 32.3% CON Gary Mitchell: 19.21% After a baffling incident in which he pocketed an expensive ring at an auction, veteran NDP MP Svend Robinson retired from politics in 2003, pleading fragile mental health and lingering post-traumatic stress from a near-fatal fall years before. He ceded his seat to his long-time political assistant Bill Siksay, but now Mr. Robinson is ready to return to Parliament, and to do so, he is taking on Liberal incumbent Hedy Fry in the nearby riding of Vancouver Centre. He has his work cut out for him: not only will he have to relive the humiliating spiral which led to his resignation last year, but he's up against a very popular candidate in Ms. Fry, who won by more than 4,000 votes in the last election against the last NDP challenger. According to party polling, though, Mr. Robinson still has significant support amongst voters, and a majority of Vancouver Centre voters have reportedly indicated a willingness to look beyond his run-in with the law in the upcoming campaign. Advantage: Too close to call Newton North Delta, B.C. Incumbent Conservative Gurmant Grewal vs. longtime Martin supporter and land-surveyor Liberal candidate Sukh Dhaliwal and economic historian NDP candidate Nancy Clegg. 2004 election results: CON Gurmant Grewal: 32.82% LIB Sukh Dhaliwal: 31.55% NDP Nancy Clegg: 29.2%Newton North Delta voters will be experiencing deja vu in the upcoming three-way fight in a riding where the 2004 vote spread between incumbent Gurmant Grewal and third-place finisher Nancy Clegg was just over 1,500 votes, and a margin of victory for Mr. Grewal of only 520 votes over Liberal candidate Sukh Dhaliwal. All three candidates are back in 2005, but the political climate has changed dramatically for Mr. Grewal, who found himself at the centre of a covert taping controversy after he alleged that the Liberals had tried to lure him across the floor with the promise of a Cabinet position in the days before the failed effort by the Tories to bring down the government last spring. With his own credibility badly damaged, Mr. Grewal will once again face off against a strong challenger in Mr. Dhaliwal, a veteran of B.C. federal politics who can count on strong support from Liberal HQ in Ottawa thanks to his staunch support of Prime Minister Paul Martin. Close on his heels is the NDP's Nancy Clegg ,an economic historian and university professor. Given Mr. Grewal's performance over the last year, the real race may be between Mr. Dhaliwal and Mr. Clegg, but it's still anyone's guess how this race will play out. Also worrying for the Conservatives is the possibility that a free-fall for Mr. Grewal may bleed away support from his wife, Nina Grewal,who is running in the neighbouring riding of Fleetwood Port Kells. Advantage: Too close to call news@hilltimes.com The Hill Times Overall Election Results in June 28, 2004 Federal Election: Party Elected Leading Total Vote Share Liberals 135 0 135 36.71% Conservatives 99 0 99 29.61% Bloc Quebecois 54 0 54 12.40% NDP 19 0 19 15.69% Independent 1 0 1 0.13% Others 0 0 0 5.47% - Source: Elections Canada

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Some of the hottest races to watch in election 2005-2006

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