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Despite Greens’ rising popularity, NDP and Bloc more likely to hold balance of power in next House: pollster Lyle

By Abbas Rana      

If the current voting trends continued until election time, the Green Party could win 14 seats, says EKOS president Frank Graves. But he also says if progressive voters choose to vote strategically to prevent the Conservatives from forming government, they could vote for the Liberals.

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May. Ms. May's Green Party has been recording historic highs in recent national polls, but pollster Greg Lyle predicts that the Bloc and the NDP will be more influential than the Greens after the next federal election. The Hill Times photographs by Andrew Meade and courtesy of the Bloc Québécois

Although the Green Party is recording historic highs in public opinion polls and has made recent gains in a byelection and some provincial elections, pollster Greg Lyle predicts the New Democrats and the Bloc will likely be more influential if a minority government is elected in October’s federal election.

Abbas Rana

Abbas Rana is the assistant deputy editor of The Hill Times.
- arana@hilltimes.com


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For whom will the bell toll in Peterborough-Kawartha?

News|By Charelle Evelyn 1:24 PM ET
In a riding where voters are deeply engaged in the political process, candidates avoid the low-hanging fruit and stay out of the mud as they grapple with who to send to the House of Commons.

Singh’s strong campaign an internal win, whatever the outcome, New Democrats say

Jagmeet Singh’s impressive campaign has ‘rescued’ and ‘refocused’ the NDP after the failed 2015 effort, Ed Broadbent says.

The astrophysicist whose polling aggregator is projecting the election

News|By Neil Moss
The mastermind behind 338Canada, poll aggregator Philippe Fournier, is aiming to correctly call 90 per cent of the seats in the Oct. 21 race.

Transition teams must be prepared for ‘unpredictable outcomes’ in minority situation, say former senior bureaucrats

News|By Mike Lapointe
The 'essence of clerkness' is continuity of government, says former PCO clerk Mel Cappe, who says he's 'strongly advised' current PCO clerk Ian Shugart to reach out to Andrew Scheer's team.

What’s your issue? Taxes, climate change, health care top leaders’ campaign pitches this election

The Liberals, Conservatives, NDP, and Greens collectively spotlighted tax offers on 17 of 31 days of the campaign, climate change on 15 days, and health care on 11.

Preliminary data shows nearly 3 million tuned in to French debate, more than double 2015’s ratings

The viewership for the Leaders' Debates Commission's French debate was more than double the viewership for the TVA debate, preliminary data shows, and higher than the 2015 French consortium event.

‘It’s definitely in the top quadrant’: election campaign one of dirtiest in recent history, say political insiders

News|By Abbas Rana
This campaign is not defined by any overarching issue, and has become ‘personal’ and ‘ugly’ between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, says pollster and Ipsos president Darrell Bricker.

‘They’re really riled up here’: Conservatives circling Goodale’s lone Liberal seat in Saskatchewan

‘The numbers are holding very closely to what they were last time. It all depends on turnout,’ says the 31-year MP Ralph Goodale. 

Candidates scramble to outperform their competitors in the critical ground game ahead of next week’s election

News|By Abbas Rana
Liberal MP Ken Hardie says his team has set up get-out-the-vote ground operations in the riding to get all his supporters to the polling booths on election day.
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