John Laschinger is Canadaās only full-time campaign manager, as far as he knows.
He has run a grand total of 50 campaigns in his career, which means heās lost some, but won more. (His ratio is 20:30.)Ā Campaign Confessions, his second book, came after he ran his 50th campaign,Ā Olivia Chowās run for Toronto mayor in 2014.
When asked about retirement, he says, ānot so fast,ā before giving a vague description of a āyoung guyā heās been talking to who is thinking of jumping into a provincial-level leadership race. All he would say is that itās not in Alberta, where former MP Jason Kenney is currently running for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party.
In his new book, which came out this September, Mr. Laschinger (whose first line of his book reads, āCall me Laschā) promises untold tales from behind the scenes, and plenty of fodder for political junkies looking for a fix. The stories hailĀ from saunas in Kyrgyzstan, include a briefcase full of cash, and tricks of the trade from a veteran politico.Ā The Hill Times sat down with the old pro to talk more about his book, and to ask him to take the temperature of some current lively campaigns.
The following interview has been edited for clarity and/or length.
“I sat down with a friend of mine, who used to write for the Globe and Mail, Geoff Stevens, who helped me with the book. We did a book, Leaders and Lesser Mortals, in ā92. At that time Iād finished 20 campaigns, and now Iāve finished 50. It was time to pass on some lessons to people who run campaigns, or who want to be candidates. Over the years, with Leaders and Lesser Mortals, Iād be running a campaign and somebody opposite from me, a Liberal or an NDP [would say] āI just pulled your book out again, because I wanted to refresh myself.ā So they were using that against me. And then all of a sudden, it became obvious that thereās a lot of nice
stories, a lot of good stories, in there. Tales that nobodyās ever heard before. And that people, political junkies, love to know [stories of] what really happened in this or that campaign.”
“Thereās two lessons. In every election, there are two forces at play. The first force is ātime for a change;ā do we want to keep the bum; or do we want to throw the bums out? And, in my business, you can quantify that. If it gets to a certain level, the candidateās in trouble. If it doesnāt get to that level, the incumbent will survive. John Tory, running against [Dalton] McGuinty in 2007, the ātime for a changeā number was 50 per cent.”
“Yeah. You ask a quantitative question. Some people say that the government has done a pretty good job, and that they deserve to be elected for another four years. Other people say, the governmentās done a really poor job, and itās time for another party to take over. Which is closest to your opinion? āTime for a changeā was 50 per cent for McGuinty, 41 per cent was keep him. That means McGuintyās going to get re-elected. This is in a three-way race. And on election day, he got 41 per cent of the vote. And we got 26, and NDP got whatever the rest was. The magic number is 60 per cent. Any time a government has more than 60 per cent of people wanting to get rid of them, theyāre gone.”
“Hillary Clinton. āTime for a changeā right now is 70 per cent in the States, and yet sheās winning. Why? Because [Donald] Trump has successfully positioned himself as unfit to be president. He [represents]Ā change, but scary change. So thatās one force.
“The second force is managing expectations. In life, people describe people as winners if they beat expectations. If they lose, they can still lose the election, but they beat expectations. People expect them to do badly, but they did a little bit better. In the stock market, a company goes up when they report earnings that beat expectations. If you miss expectations, the stock price goes down. Itās the same in politics. You can go up or down, and how people see you [is] in relation to what they expect to see. Harper spent a whole bunch of money driving down the expectations of Justin Trudeau. Nice hair, just not ready for the job. All those ads, [they] were very cute, but they succeeded in pushing the bar down so low, that when Trudeau was first seen by the people, he could easily step over that bar. He could beat that bar. All of a sudden, āheās not that bad. I think heās a winner.ā”
“No. Numbers never lie. People say, āwell, how come nobody said that Rachel Notley was going to win a majority [in Alberta]?ā Well, if you looked at the numbers, people seemed to ignore them, but they were there. The other thing is, nobody does any bad polling. They might have different methodology, but you see the trend lines. The biggest problem with polling lately has been they donāt do it right up until the end.”
“I think the David Miller campaign. 2003. Mayor of Toronto. We started out at two per cent in the polls. Barbara Hall, the former mayor, was at 50-plus per cent. There was a whole bunch of people down around three, four, five, six per cent. And that was a campaign I used negative advertising for one of the first times. But I used it against myself. I ran a couple of radio spots that said ādonāt vote for David Miller.ā But I put them in the words of a lobbyist, in a deep, growly, rough voice, āIām a lobbyist, for Double Trouble Inc., and David Miller wants to change the rules at city hall. He wants to put me out of business, and I wonāt be able to
lobby anymore. I wonāt be able to send my kids to private school, and I wonāt be able to take holidays in the Cayman Islands anymore. For godās sake, donāt vote for David Miller.ā I ran those, and we got noticed. People started to talk about us, and our numbers started to creep up. Then a week after, the advertising agency came back to me, and they said, āthis has been a great success,ā and they had a whole program laid out for the rest of the campaign. Buttons, brochures, ādonāt vote for David Miller,ā for the rest of the campaign. I said, āno, no, no.ā I just wanted to do this to get noticed, now we got to tell them why they should vote for us, once they start talking about us. And on election day we won. We won by a good majority over John Tory.”
‘This is a blood sport. They want you to be aggressive.’
“She ran a front runnerās campaign. Didnāt want to rock the boat, didnāt want to say anything bad about anyone, just sort of wanted to slide through. And people donāt want you to slide through. This is a blood sport. They want you to be aggressive, they want you to be in the game, they want you to be taking positions, they want you to show what youāre made of. And so when her vote all fell downāher vote was left of centre, and centreāand as it fell apart, [it] went to the left-of-centre candidate, David Miller.”
“Itās pretty obvious to me. Iāve been following it from Toronto, and in the media. Thereās no opposition leaders. Both opposition parties have no leaders. They have interim, but thatās it. Heās got a free run. Heās running around a track with no opposition. The last two or three months, the media has started to become the opposition. Theyāre stepping up, āwell, what about this promise you made?ā Electoral reform is the last one.”
“A lot of people in the race. Only a few of them seem to have beenĀ getting noticed. Maxime Bernier from Quebec, I guess. I think [Erin] OāToole could surprise. Heās got a number of MPs supporting him, and thatās important in this thing. Iām not sure if this is true or not, but Iām led to believe that on the first ballot, he was ahead of [Rona] Ambrose for the selection of the interim leadership. So heās got some support in there. Heās got a bit of experience. Heās the right age, he comes from Montreal. His French is not as good as it should be, but he can fix that I think. Heās got an interesting background, and he fixed up Veterans Affairs.”
“There may be some more people who show up. Thereās been talk of a business executive out of Montreal thinking about it. I donāt think that will happen, but thereās people still kicking the tires a bit. Because there seems to be a sense from the media that this race has underwhelmed people.”