Canada needs to protect Arctic sovereignty to confront emboldened Putin, say MP and expert

As President Vladimir Putin has solidified his grip on Russian leadership for the next 16 years, a Liberal MP says that Canada needs to prepare for the threat of Moscow's influence in the Arctic, while a former aide to past foreign affairs minister Stéphane Dion says Canada needs to begin dialogue with Russia. A referendum on a series of constitutional amendments that were already approved by parliament had wide support among Russians in what some believe was a tainted vote. The amendments give Mr. Putin the ability to stay in power until 2036. Liberal MP John McKay (Scarborough-Guildwood, Ont.), chair of the House of Commons Public Safety and National Security Committee, told The Hill Times that he anticipates Canada's relationship with Russia will continue to deteriorate in the coming years. “Maybe the deterioration will even accelerate,” he said. “There will be incursions and intrusions and aggressive actions taken increasingly in the Arctic.” Mr. McKay added that the “militarization and degradation” of the Arctic archipelago will continue swiftly. Liberal MP John McKay says Canada needs to work with likeminded Arctic allies to assert its sovereignty over increasing Russia influence. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade “And there's not much that we will be able to do about it, aside from joining up with like-minded allies,” he said, adding that “the main like-minded ally is distracted.” “I don't anticipate that distraction will change anytime in 2020 and we'll see about 2021 brings,” Mr. McKay said. He said that Canada can't do it on its own, but needs to work with Arctic partners such as Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, and the United States. Baltic and Nordic countries, Mr. McKay said are “intensely aware” of how well prepared Russia is and the aggressive action it is looking to take. Over the last decade, Russia has increasingly placed resources in the Arctic, with the U.S. military raising alarm flags about the spread of the Kremlin's influence in the North. U.S. General Terrence O’Shaughnessy, the commander of Norad, stated his concern over Russia's build-up in the Arctic with the presence of long-range cruise missiles in a letter to the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee earlier this year and stressed the need to modernize North America's aerial defence system. “We really do need to get serious about our own security arrangements up there,” Mr. McKay said, adding that it is “essential” to have an active presence in the Arctic. “If you're not active, physically there asserting your own sovereignty against all comers—whether it's China, whether it's Russia— will start to take liberties and treat what we regard as inland waterways as international waterways,” he said. Documentarian and human rights activist Marcus Kolga, a fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said Russia has spent a lot of money and resources to build up its Arctic military capabilities and restore Soviet-era bases while building new bases. Mr. Kolga, an expert in Russia and Eastern European affairs, echoed Mr. McKay on the importance for Canada to work with its allies to counter the increasing Russian threat in the North, as well as working with Arctic nations to bolster military procurement. He said that Mr. Putin hasn't shied away from using the Russian military to achieve his goals and Canada has to look out for its own national security, adding that it is important to strengthen NATO. If the status quo in the relationship between Ottawa and Moscow continues, Canada should be thankful, but things are likely to get worse, Mr. Kolga said, as Mr. Putin's popularity decreases. “We need to make sure that we are able to defend ,” he said, which will include developing the Arctic and deepwater ports. “That competition for Arctic resources is starting now and I don't know why we would want to allow another nation—especially an aggressive, malign competitor—to get the upper hand.” The Russian embassy declined an interview request on the Canada-Russia relationship. Liberals' effort to re-engage with Russia was 'naive': McKay When the Liberals came to power following their 2015 election victory, then-foreign affairs minister Stéphane Dion trumpeted the need to re-engage with Russia following a frosty relationship between the Kremlin and the Harper government after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Then-foreign affairs minister Stéphane Dion wanted to re-engage with Russia, but that effort ultimately led to little progress in improving Canada's relationship with the Putin government. The Hill Times file photograph Mr. Dion, who is now Canada's envoy to Germany and the European Union, argued in 2016 that Canada should work with Russia on common interests. He questioned how not speaking to Russia helped Canada's interests, whether in support of Ukraine's sovereignty or on Arctic issues. Mr. McKay said the approach, in retrospect, looks “a little bit naive,” in the same way the efforts to engage China look “a little naive.” “They take the long view and if there's initiatives on the part of Western governments to reach out and change the relationship, wait and take advantage of the softening of the relationship,” he said. Jocelyn Coulon, a former policy adviser to Mr. Dion and author of Canada is Not Back: How Justin Trudeau is in Over His Head on Foreign Policy, told The Hill Times that the Canadian government should look at some European nations like France as a model to re-engage with Russia. “These countries are thinking about their national interest, and the fact that Russia is a power and you have to have some kind of dialogue with Russia,” he said, adding that it is up to Canada to start the dialogue. “Somebody has to break the ice and start talking,” Mr. Coulon said. “We'll see what happens, at least we have to try. We have tried to do it for the last five years.” He added that if there isn't a dialogue with Russia, it will push them into the Chinese orbit. U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated a past suggestion in May to bring Russia back into the G7, which was rebuffed by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.), who said Russia will continue to remain outside the G7 due to its “disrespect and flaunting” of international law. Carleton University political science professor Piotr Dutkiewicz, former director of the Institute of European and Russian Studies, echoed Mr. Coulon, saying in an email that it is in Canada's hands to re-engage. “Russians are very pragmatic in their approach to foreign policy and in areas such as Arctic, business, and terrorism they are still ready to work closer with Canada. The question is whether Canadian government is ready to face that offer with a balanced and meaningful counteroffer,” Prof. Dutkiewicz said, adding that at the moment, Canada-Russia relations are at a “very low end in almost all areas.” He said that Russia has signalled to Canada its willingness to work with the Canadian government on “relations in the Arctic, economic relations, education, and culture and combating terrorism for the start.” “The offer is on the table. It is up to our government to assess whether, when and how to start a meaningful conversation on the possible improvement of our relations that is definitely in our and their national interest,” he said. Mr. Kolga said re-engagement is not a problem itself, but Canada needs to do so while keeping in mind that Russia doesn't respect the rule of law or the liberal Western order, as well as curtails the freedom of press and has invaded neighbouring countries. “If we understand that this is what they're doing, then by all means talk to them,” he said, but he added: “I don't know what you are going to be talking to them about.” Mr. Kolga said there are few shared issues where Canada and Russia can find common ground, including on the Arctic. “We just need to understand what Russia's objectives are with regards to its foreign policy in Europe and Canada,” he said, noting that the Canadian government needs to be aware of the Kremlin's efforts to destabilize democracies around the world, including in Canada. “If we want to try and re-engage, that's fine as long as we're aware what the Putin regime is trying to do to us and our allies,” Mr. Kolga said. nmoss@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

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Canada needs to protect Arctic sovereignty to confront emboldened Putin, say MP and expert

Liberal MP John McKay says there will be 'incursions and intrusions and aggressive actions taken increasingly in the Arctic' by Russia.

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Canada needs to protect Arctic sovereignty to confront emboldened Putin, say MP and expert

Liberal MP John McKay says there will be 'incursions and intrusions and aggressive actions taken increasingly in the Arctic' by Russia.

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