NDP’s loss is Conservatives’ gain

Good Monday morning, In today’s Politics This Morning: Industry groups call on the federal government to avert the impending rail strikes. Ministers give an update on the seasonal outlook for wildfires and hurricanes. Trump accuses Harris of using AI to bump up crowds in campaign picture. Grits trail in fresh poll. Tories continue their roll. On Dippers, they toll. (Fine, I will sign up for that Haiku class!) Voter polling numbers are back to haunt the Liberals, leaving little respite for Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, who is only recently back from his vacation in British Columbia. Not the best news to bring a PM out of holiday blues! The latest survey by Abacus Data of 1,550 Canadian adults, released yesterday, showed the Conservatives leading by more than 20 points over the Liberals. If a general election were to take place today, the data suggests that 43 per cent of committed voters would vote for the Tories. The Liberals would get 23 per cent of the vote, while the NDP would bag 18 per cent, and the Greens four per cent. Perhaps most troubling for the governing Grits, the Abacus poll found approximately equal support in Quebec for the Conservatives (31 per cent) and Bloc Québécois (30 per cent), while the Liberals trailed behind with 24 per cent support. The popular vote doesn't translate directly into ridings won or lost, of course, but that is very good news for Conservatives in Quebec. The Tories lead in all other regions of the country, with 47 per cent of committed voters on their side, while the Liberals have 22 per cent, and the New Democrats 20. While these results are not vastly different from the data agency’s previous survey in July, they highlight a slight four-point dip in the NDP voting base among Canadians between 45 and 59 years of age. The Conservatives gained seven points in this demographic. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade This may or may not be the outcome of the Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE’s “Sellout Singh” campaign targeting the NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH in recent weeks. The numbers suggest that the Conservatives are benefiting from wavering NDP voters. The survey additionally shows a rise in the Conservative Party's accessible voter pool, which is now 16 points larger than that of Liberals. Will these poll numbers prove prescient in September's two byelections? Can the Liberals turn a corner in these polls, and regain voters’ confidence? Innovative Research president GREG LYLE said in an interview with The Hill Times last month that Trudeau needs a “compelling narrative” on why he wants a fourth term. “If you want to rally to Trudeau, he’s got to show a flag you can rally to, and he’s not. That’s a big problem for him. He’s got to figure out what his case is,” Lyle added. Liberals need to catch up on fundraising Another area where the Liberals need to do some catching up is fundraising. You know it’s serious business when politicians mingle with rich folks over a game of golf. Labour Minister STEVEN MACKINNON will be entertaining donors with his prowess in the sport today at a fundraiser for the Gatineau Federal Liberal Association. Labour Minister Steve MacKinnon. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE will make an appearance later at lunch. The event is taking place in the exclusive 18-hole Rivermead Golf Club in Gatineau, Que., between 9 a.m. and 2 p.m. with the minimum donation set at $1,500. This comes after Prime Minister Trudeau himself headed to a fundraiser in Brampton, Ont., on August 10. The Liberal Party continues to lag behind the Conservatives on that front, as per Elections Canada numbers. The Tories raised more than $20.5-million in the first half of 2024—besting the Liberals by $13.6-million. AI has entered the chat Across the border, the U.S. election has entered a saltier phase, as the Republicans continue to find more mud to sling at the now-active Harris-Walz campaign. Yesterday, Republican standard-bearer DONALD TRUMP took to Truth Social to accuse Vice-President KAMALA HARRIS of falsely enhancing an image of a crowd greeting her campaign at a tarmac using artificial intelligence. “Has anyone noticed that Kamala CHEATED at the airport? There was nobody at the plane, and she ‘A.I.‘d’ it,” he posted. The Harris campaign hit back, asserting that it was a real photo of a 15,000-person crowd cheering for Harris-Walz in Michigan last week. These petty jibes may seem ludicrous, but can have some far-reaching consequences. By peddling the AI theory, CNBC’s REBECCA PICCIOTTO said, Trump has made it harder for voters to separate reality from internet conspiracy. In the news Liberal MP John McKay. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Liberal MP JOHN MCKAY and Conservative Senator MICHAEL MACDONALD are heading to the Democratic Convention next week in Chicago as the co-chairs of the Canada-U.S. Interparliamentary group. Mckay speaks to ABBAS RANA in an exclusive interview about what’s at stake at the “historic” event. McKay also shares his views on the infamous Project 2025, which could have serious implications for Canada, with JESSE CNOCKAERT . Cnockaert further looks into the federal government’s NATO spending push, and why the Business Council of Canada will be stepping up its engagement with the federal government this fall to discuss reaching the two per cent target. Cnockaert also has a story on the prime minister's promise to increase Canada's defence spending by two per cent of GDP by 2032, but critics say the announcement lacks specifics. It's expected the government will also be lobbied had on this in the fall. What’s the rest of the cabinet up to? Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is scheduled to make an announcement alongside Ontario Premier DOUG FORD today in Lennox and Addington Country, a district in Eastern Ontario. Federal Trade Minister MARY NG and Ontario Economy Minister VIC FEDELI will also participate. Trudeau was also out and about over the weekend. On Sunday, he met with local businesspeople in Montreal, Que., after making an appearance at the Global T20 Cricket tournament in Brampton, Ont., on Saturday. Housing Minister SEAN FRASER will be joined by Veterans Affairs Minister GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR and the Liberal MP for Dartmouth–Cole Harbour, DARREN FISHER, in making an announcement today. The event is taking place at the Veterans Emergency Transition Services’ office in Dartmouth, N.S., at 2 p.m. ADT and will also be attended by the CEO of VETS, DEBBIE LOWTHER. Fisheries Minister DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER will announce investments in small craft harbours in the Magdalen Islands at a press conference in L'Étang-du-Nord, Que., today at 2:30 p.m. Emergency Preparedness Minister HARJIT SAJJAN, Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON, and Rural Economic Development Minister GUDIE HUTCHINGS are holding a press conference to provide an update on the forecast for the 2024 wildfire and hurricane season virtually at 2:30 p.m. Prior to this, the trio will give a technical briefing about the seasonal outlook for wildfires to the media virtually at 1:30 p.m. Mental Health Minister YA’ARA SAKS is making an announcement about investments towards Indigenous history, culture and heritage at 3:45 p.m. in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont. What else is happening today? Green Party Leader Elizabeth May. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY remains in her Saanich-Gulf Islands, B.C., riding and will be meeting with constituents today. Liberal MPs ARIELLE KAYABAGA of London West and PETER FRAGISKATOS of London North Centre ridings in Ontario will announce funding for green affordable housing in the city today at 10 a.m. StatsCan Corner Statistics Canada will publish its report on building permits for the month of June. The data is an indicator of the level of new construction activity happening in both residential and commercial markets in Canada, as it shows the value of permits issued by the municipalities in a month. Also on the StatsCan release schedule today is data on international arrivals in Canada in July. In case you missed it Path cleared for potential rail strikes Staff members from two major freight rail companies—the Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC)—are set to walk out for a strike action in nearly two weeks, after a ruling deemed their services are “non-essential." On Aug. 9, the Canadian Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) declared that the strike will not pose a serious danger to public health and safety, essentially clearing the path for the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) union members to proceed with the planned work stoppage—or for their employer to lock them out. The lockout could happen on Aug. 22, as reported by CHRISTOPHER REYNOLDS for The Canadian Press. The labour action comes after weeks of deadlock between the three parties over contract terms involving rest hours, fatigue management, and staff schedules. The union claims the two rail companies are attempting to scale back critical safety provisions that could mean employees might work for long hours without adequate rest. The operators have denied this, and said they have tabled offers that comply with federal standards for rest. They also proposed resorting to binding arbitration by an independent mediator, but the idea was turned down by TCRC. Labour Minister STEVE MACKINNON met with the rail operators and the union last week to push for the stalled negotiations to move forward, with federal mediators holding meetings to bring both sides to a resolution. However, if no progress is made in the coming days, the TCRC said it will continue to refuse the binding arbitration and will be forced to call a strike. The news has concerned businesses across the country, as the work stoppage could impact the supply chain of goods into the economy. The Business Council of Canada, along with 100 industry groups, called on the federal government yesterday in a letter to "act swiftly" and "do everything necessary" to avert the work stoppage. "We are respectfully asking that you safeguard the well-being of Canadians and the country’s reputation as a reliable trading partner by ensuring that a disruption to our national railway system does not occur," the letter said. Youth unemployment rates peak in July Statistics Canada released data on Canada’s unemployment rates in July and things are not looking up for young people on the job front. The country’s overall unemployment rate in July stood steady at 6.4 per cent like in the previous two months, but the rate was the highest since July 2009 among youth—at 14.2 per cent, as per CBC’s JENNA BENCHETRIT. The rate was even higher for recent immigrants at 22.8 per cent. The report highlighted a “difficult summer job market” for returning students in 2024 compared to previous months. Ethics commissioner to probe into Randy Boissonnault’s business dealings again The federal ethics commissioner is taking another look at Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT's business dealings. Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade KRISTA HESSEY of Global News reported that Ethics Commissioner KONRAD VON FINCKENSTEIN wrote a letter to Boissonnault last week expressing his concerns over newly surfaced text messages from 2022 sent by his former business partner referring to a “Randy." STEPHEN ANDERSON, who was Boissonnault’s partner in a medical supply business, testified before the House Government Operations and Estimates Committee in July about the minister’s involvement in the business even after he became an MP. The opposition parties have alleged the minister continued to be an active member in the company, going against the ethics rules. Boissonnault has denied any wrongdoing. Von Finckenstein has said in the past that the minister hadn’t broken any rules. But this new development could mean the case will again be scrutinized by the House Ethics Committee. We appreciate your feedback. Let us know what you think by emailing us at pmazereeuw@hilltimes.com or rkachhela@hilltimes.com. The Hill Times

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Politics This Morning

NDP’s loss is Conservatives’ gain

Plus, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Premier Doug Ford will team up for an announcement in Eastern Ontario today.

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