‘Leaders are basically the national campaigns’ today: messages of change and contrition a possible remedy for low numbers, say pollsters

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is ‘not running against perfection, he’s running against Justin Trudeau,’ says Nik Nanos.
NDP ‘a loser’ in recent byelections, should be ‘very worried’ about hemorrhaging support to Liberals, say political players

Recent byelection results should make the NDP rethink their supply-and-confidence deal with the government, says Innovative Research president Greg Lyle.
‘I’ve never seen the country in a darker, more divided mood than we find it today’: polarization, unpopular leaders present challenges for parties to break out of poll stasis, pollsters say

Greg Lyle of Innovative Research says a summer cabinet shuffle offers ‘relaunch’ for Liberals, while Nik Nanos recommends Poilievre avoid the spotlight.
‘Polarizing’ Alberta campaign ‘a harbinger of what to expect’ in next federal election, say insiders

It would be a mistake for Pierre Poilievre to run on a populist message in the next federal election as that vote will be decided in the suburbs of major urban centres, not in rural ridings, says Prof. Duane Bratt of Mount Royal University.
‘Liberals in trouble’ over China’s attempted meddling in Canadian elections, say pollsters

The China interference story has ‘long legs,’ and some twists and turns. The Liberals should be ‘quite concerned because if the current Conservative advantage consolidates and the longer the numbers stay here, it becomes the new normal, and it will require more effort to dislodge the trend line,’ says pollster Nik Nanos.
Ontario’s proposed polling ban would leave voters ‘in a dark room,’ says Nanos

Polls may have a ‘negative impact on voter turnout,’ but banning them is ‘not a silver bullet,’ says a Samara Centre for Democracy spokesperson.
May remains optimistic despite poor polling, vows to elect 12 Green MPs in next election

Despite no discernible ‘honeymoon’ in the federal Greens’ polling, party leader Elizabeth May says she isn’t discouraged about her party’s future.
Liberals need to ‘get off their asses’ and take Poilievre seriously before it’s too late, say some Grits

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s growing support in public opinion polls is making some Liberals nervous, saying it should be a “wake-up call” to the party, while other Liberals say it’s a normal bump for any new leader. “The Liberals need to get off their asses,” said one former senior Liberal who spoke to The Hill […]
Year-long deadlock between Libs and Tories could be ‘new normal,’ but ‘perfect storm’ of inflation and health-care crisis creates a ‘windfall’ for opposition parties this fall: Coletto, Nanos

A week out from the official return of Parliament on Sept. 19, the Liberals and Conservatives appear deadlocked in the polls, and analysts predict this winter will provide a “perfect storm” of issues for all the opposition parties. But if the Conservatives hope to defeat the Liberals in the next election, it will be up […]
The politics of vacation shaming

OAKVILLE, ONT.—While researching this column, I discovered that if you criticize a politician for going on a holiday, you’re guilty of something called, “vacation shaming.” The idea is everybody, even politicians, deserve a peaceful, stress-free holiday. And yes, I would agree that it’s wrong to shame a vacationing politician, except, of course, when political circumstances […]