Poor polling numbers, NDP MPP’s rumoured candidacy, and Mideast conflict turns Toronto-St. Paul’s, Ont., byelection into tight three-way race, say Liberal MPs
However, even though a number of factors are currently against the government, it appears unlikely the Liberals would lose the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection, says Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research.
Liberals ‘between the devil and the deep blue sea’ on carbon tax and caucus fissures on Mid-East war, say political players
Without pausing the upcoming carbon price increase on April 1, it’s hard to find a way to get the Liberals out of their public support slump, says pollster Greg Lyle.
Polls show ‘across-the-board, generalized retreat’ from Liberals, says Coletto
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will ‘either walk up to the edge of the next election and run, or he’ll walk up to the edge of the next election and decide to retire,’ so until that time Liberals should focus on how to ‘get more competitive with the current prime minister,’ says former Martin-era Liberal PMO staffer Scott Reid.
Pollsters skeptical NDP would force an election over pharmacare
Meanwhile, former Liberal staffer Dan Arnold says the government has to decide whether it wants to invest big money into pharmacare versus its other policy priorities in advance of the next election.
Liberal slump could be an opportunity for NDP, but polarized campaigns historically favour the Grits, say observers
In the latest Abacus Data survey, one in five NDP supporters said they voted Liberal in the last election. But one in 10 past NDP voters said they would now cast a ballot for the Conservatives.
Liberals trailing Conservatives ‘new normal’ in federal politics, says pollster
Sitting back and expecting the Conservatives to self-destruct ‘is the kind of thinking that people use when they buy lottery tickets,’ a former senior Liberal says. Meanwhile, Liberal pundit Scott Reid says if the current poll were a movie, it would be The Exorcist. ‘For Liberals, it’s that goddamned scary.’
Tory polling sign of political landscape’s ‘shifting sands’ and volatility from undecided voters, says pollster Shachi Kurl
The Conservatives still have a double-digit lead across every recent poll, but analysis by the Angus Reid Institute show that with potentially a year or more before the next election, half of the electorate are still open to changing their minds before casting their ballots.
Liberal pandering hasn’t opened Pandora’s box of voter support
According to a recent Abacus Data poll, only 13 per cent of respondents said the policy changes on carbon pricing will make them more likely to vote Liberal.
‘I feel like a physician giving bad news’: Trudeau needs to ‘up his game’ or risk losing to surging Poilievre, say pollsters
With the Liberals in trouble and caucus getting nervous and openly criticizing their leadership, it’s up to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his party to stop the bleeding of public support, pollsters tell The Hill Times.
For Pierre Poilievre, nastiness serves a strategic political purpose
Anger is Poilievre’s calling card. It got him elected, made him a cabinet minister, and won him the Conservative leadership.
