Poilievre has the most room to move, but he also has to make sure ‘he doesn’t make a mistake,’ say pollsters
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has a high disapproval rating, but the Conservative and NDP leaders are struggling to achieve net-positive impressions with voters.
Once a coveted safe Liberal seat, Toronto-St. Paul’s now a ‘swing riding’ and leaning Conservative, says pollster Lyle
A veteran GTA Liberal says that their party will win the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection, but with a single-digit margin.
Poilievre’s narrative ‘not resonating’ in Quebec, but observers say that won’t hurt a Conservative path to victory
If Quebecers see a change in government to the Conservatives as ‘inevitable’ in the next federal campaign, they may prefer to send a contingent of Bloc MPs to Ottawa, says pollster David Coletto.
Freeland’s budget seen as last hope to turn Trudeau’s electoral fortunes around, say politicos
A key metric to gauge the budget’s effectiveness will be whether it reverses Canadians’ appetite for change in government, says David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data.
Poor polling numbers, NDP MPP’s rumoured candidacy, and Mideast conflict turns Toronto-St. Paul’s, Ont., byelection into tight three-way race, say Liberal MPs
However, even though a number of factors are currently against the government, it appears unlikely the Liberals would lose the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection, says Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research.
Liberals ‘between the devil and the deep blue sea’ on carbon tax and caucus fissures on Mid-East war, say political players
Without pausing the upcoming carbon price increase on April 1, it’s hard to find a way to get the Liberals out of their public support slump, says pollster Greg Lyle.
Polls show ‘across-the-board, generalized retreat’ from Liberals, says Coletto
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will ‘either walk up to the edge of the next election and run, or he’ll walk up to the edge of the next election and decide to retire,’ so until that time Liberals should focus on how to ‘get more competitive with the current prime minister,’ says former Martin-era Liberal PMO staffer Scott Reid.
Pollsters skeptical NDP would force an election over pharmacare
Meanwhile, former Liberal staffer Dan Arnold says the government has to decide whether it wants to invest big money into pharmacare versus its other policy priorities in advance of the next election.
Liberal slump could be an opportunity for NDP, but polarized campaigns historically favour the Grits, say observers
In the latest Abacus Data survey, one in five NDP supporters said they voted Liberal in the last election. But one in 10 past NDP voters said they would now cast a ballot for the Conservatives.
Liberals trailing Conservatives ‘new normal’ in federal politics, says pollster
Sitting back and expecting the Conservatives to self-destruct ‘is the kind of thinking that people use when they buy lottery tickets,’ a former senior Liberal says. Meanwhile, Liberal pundit Scott Reid says if the current poll were a movie, it would be The Exorcist. ‘For Liberals, it’s that goddamned scary.’
