Grenier: after a rough year, how might the polls do in 2013?
OTTAWA—The polling industry took quite a beating in 2012 after missed calls in Alberta and Quebec. What will 2013 have in store for polls? This year was a lot rougher on public opinion polls than was 2011. Though every major polling firm placed the Conservatives in minority territory in that year’s federal election, they […]
Grenier: Tories have reason to worry about Liberal gains
OTTAWA—The recent bump in support for the Liberal Party of Canada, just as its leadership race officially kicks off, has come in large part at the expense of the New Democrats—but not entirely. The latest polls suggest that the New Democrats have slipped back down to, or slightly below, their results of the May […]
Provincial leadership races highlight challenges of federal Grits
PARLIAMENT HILL—The five provincial Liberal leadership races currently under way, and the one that came to a close over the weekend, highlight the obstacles the Liberal Party of Canada faces in its bid to be a contender for power once again. The Liberal brand has been in steady decline in the western provinces, and […]
For polls to tell us anything, they need to be put into proper context
OTTAWA—Recent provincial elections in Canada have put more scrutiny on the accuracy of public opinion polling and the role polls play in Canadian politics. While those are important subjects to investigate, one of the most important contributing factors to the recent frustration is not the numbers themselves, but how they are interpreted and reported. […]
Did Quebec’s election polls lie? Grenier weighs in to polling discussion
OTTAWA—Admittedly, 2012 has been a bad year for political opinion polls. The result of the Alberta election was the kind of “Dewey defeats Truman” moment that will be cited by politicians and partisans for years to come whenever their party is down in the polls. And with the surprising resilience of Jean Charest’s Liberals […]
Quebec election poses problem for federal parties
The ongoing Quebec election is a bit of a conundrum for the three major parties in Ottawa. It is no surprise that the three leaders have been reluctant to get involved. The Conservatives’ silence is loudest, however, especially considering how often the party gave its two cents concerning the provincial election in Ontario and […]
Greens have come long way, but still have further to go
OTTAWA—Next month, the Green Party of Canada will be holding its biennial policy convention in party leader Elizabeth May’s B.C. riding. A little more than one year after electing their first Member of Parliament, the Greens have something to celebrate. But Elizabeth May hopes to be soon joined by other MPs in the House […]
Lessons of hypothetical polls for Trudeau leadership bid
OTTAWA—According to the polls, Justin Trudeau could be the next saviour of the Liberal Party of Canada. A Trudeau-led party might sweep all before it, or at least put the party in the running for top spot. But the answers to hypothetical questions can only tell us so much. With Bob Rae’s announcement that […]
Three years out, polls still have something to say
OTTAWA—The Conservatives and New Democrats are neck-and-neck in the polls. Some give the Tories a narrow edge, while others give the nod to the NDP. With an efficient regional distribution of votes, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair could win the plurality of seats and form a minority government with these numbers. Except the next election […]
Blaming the polls misses mark in Alberta
OTTAWA—On the eve of last week’s Alberta election, consensus opinion gave Danielle Smith’s Wildrose the win, thereby ending the Progressive Conservatives’ 41 years in power. When, instead, the Tories came out on top with a landslide of their own, the consensus was that the pollsters blew it. But while blaming the pollsters is as […]
