Greens have come long way, but still have further to go
OTTAWA—Next month, the Green Party of Canada will be holding its biennial policy convention in party leader Elizabeth May’s B.C. riding. A little more than one year after electing their first Member of Parliament, the Greens have something to celebrate. But Elizabeth May hopes to be soon joined by other MPs in the House […]
Lessons of hypothetical polls for Trudeau leadership bid
OTTAWA—According to the polls, Justin Trudeau could be the next saviour of the Liberal Party of Canada. A Trudeau-led party might sweep all before it, or at least put the party in the running for top spot. But the answers to hypothetical questions can only tell us so much. With Bob Rae’s announcement that […]
Three years out, polls still have something to say
OTTAWA—The Conservatives and New Democrats are neck-and-neck in the polls. Some give the Tories a narrow edge, while others give the nod to the NDP. With an efficient regional distribution of votes, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair could win the plurality of seats and form a minority government with these numbers. Except the next election […]
Blaming the polls misses mark in Alberta
OTTAWA—On the eve of last week’s Alberta election, consensus opinion gave Danielle Smith’s Wildrose the win, thereby ending the Progressive Conservatives’ 41 years in power. When, instead, the Tories came out on top with a landslide of their own, the consensus was that the pollsters blew it. But while blaming the pollsters is as […]
Incumbents challenged from right in provincial showdowns
OTTAWA—Both Alison Redford and Jean Charest will have to fight two-front campaigns when their provinces next head to the ballot box. But whereas Redford enters Alberta’s spring campaign as the front-runner, Charest will have to mount a comeback if and when he calls the next vote. The next provincial election in Quebec does not […]
Regional shifts suggest new battlegrounds
OTTAWA—The breakthrough of the New Democrats and the election of a Conservative majority government in 2011 may have shifted the balance of power on Parliament Hill, but trends at both the provincial and federal levels point to important changes in Canada’s political landscape that could have far-reaching consequences. The West is rising, according to […]
Prior to the 2011 federal election, polls held firm for months and even years
OTTAWA—What a difference a year makes. As 2011 comes to a close, Canadians are still getting used to the new dynamics on Parliament Hill and in the country as a whole. Whereas one year ago the situation was very much like the one that greeted Canadians at the end of 2009, there is very […]
Political theatre in the provinces with majority in Ottawa
OTTAWA—This year was a good one for the incumbent. Though the newfound strength of the New Democrats shook things up federally and in the provincial elections in Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador, incumbent governments were re-elected across the country. Whether it was the federal Conservatives, the five re-elected provincial premiers, or the mayor of […]
New politics of the oil sands won’t be about the environment
OTTAWA—Last December, in a column I wrote in this paper, I reported the results of a survey Abacus Data conducted on the oil sands and the early debate over ethical oil. Since plenty has happened since last December in the energy industry, I thought the topic was worth another look. In about a […]
Provincial elections muddy methodological waters
OTTAWA—The results of the 2011 federal election campaign seemed to confirm the conventional wisdom of the polling industry. Telephone polls performed best, some online polls did well while others floundered, and the interactive voice response (IVR) surveys struggled. And though the polls underestimated Conservative support, the best performers still had their results within the […]
