Polls remain mixed for Mulcair after one year
OTTAWA—This weekend marked the one-year anniversary of Thomas Mulcair’s NDP leadership victory. After 12 months at the helm of the party, the verdict on his performance has to be mixed, at least based on how he has done in the polls. In contrast to the surge in support the Liberal Party has been experiencing […]
The danger in underestimating Trudeau
OTTAWA—The boxing analogy has probably been overused by now, but the last time Justin Trudeau was dismissed as a lightweight did not end very well for his opponent. There is a strong possibility that his critics will be surprised again. It seems inevitable that Justin Trudeau will win the Liberal leadership race in April, and […]
Political consensus in Quebec goes missing
OTTAWA—In the last weeks of April 2011, Quebecers moved en masse towards the New Democrats and propelled the party to official opposition status, erasing 20 years of Bloc Québécois dominance in the province. Now, Quebecers cannot seem to make up their mind. Polls at both the federal and provincial levels in the province suggest […]
The Hill Times’ 16th Annual Most Valuable Politician & All Politics Poll conducted by Forum Research Inc.
PARLIAMENT HILL—In a year that saw the election of a new federal NDP leader, the launch of the federal Liberal leadership race, and a renewed federal focus on hyper-partisanship, this year’s respondents to The Hill Times’ 16th Annual Most Valuable Politician and All Politics Poll stuck mostly to both their party lines and to their […]
Grenier: after a rough year, how might the polls do in 2013?
OTTAWA—The polling industry took quite a beating in 2012 after missed calls in Alberta and Quebec. What will 2013 have in store for polls? This year was a lot rougher on public opinion polls than was 2011. Though every major polling firm placed the Conservatives in minority territory in that year’s federal election, they […]
Grenier: Tories have reason to worry about Liberal gains
OTTAWA—The recent bump in support for the Liberal Party of Canada, just as its leadership race officially kicks off, has come in large part at the expense of the New Democrats—but not entirely. The latest polls suggest that the New Democrats have slipped back down to, or slightly below, their results of the May […]
Provincial leadership races highlight challenges of federal Grits
PARLIAMENT HILL—The five provincial Liberal leadership races currently under way, and the one that came to a close over the weekend, highlight the obstacles the Liberal Party of Canada faces in its bid to be a contender for power once again. The Liberal brand has been in steady decline in the western provinces, and […]
For polls to tell us anything, they need to be put into proper context
OTTAWA—Recent provincial elections in Canada have put more scrutiny on the accuracy of public opinion polling and the role polls play in Canadian politics. While those are important subjects to investigate, one of the most important contributing factors to the recent frustration is not the numbers themselves, but how they are interpreted and reported. […]
Did Quebec’s election polls lie? Grenier weighs in to polling discussion
OTTAWA—Admittedly, 2012 has been a bad year for political opinion polls. The result of the Alberta election was the kind of “Dewey defeats Truman” moment that will be cited by politicians and partisans for years to come whenever their party is down in the polls. And with the surprising resilience of Jean Charest’s Liberals […]
Quebec election poses problem for federal parties
The ongoing Quebec election is a bit of a conundrum for the three major parties in Ottawa. It is no surprise that the three leaders have been reluctant to get involved. The Conservatives’ silence is loudest, however, especially considering how often the party gave its two cents concerning the provincial election in Ontario and […]
