Ontario polls show how it should be done
OTTAWA—No, the provincial election results in Ontario were not to polling what the most recent provincial elections in Alberta and British Columbia were, despite the claims of some. Most polls, whether they were recording the intentions of likely or all eligible voters, had the Liberals winning, the Progressive Conservatives in second, and the New Democrats […]
Nothing new in confusing Ontario polls: Éric Grenier
The polls have done little to help clarify the political landscape in Ontario as the provincial election campaign approaches mid-point. At time of writing, the last three polls released to the public showed either a lead for Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives, a lead for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals, or a tie between the two. Since the […]
Approval ratings point to advantage for NDP and Mulcair
OTTAWA—Horserace polling has its limitations. Opinions can change quickly and support can be parked with little to no commitment. Voters take many things into consideration when casting a ballot for a party: the local candidate, the wider context of who is most likely to form government, or specific policy proposals. How they feel about […]
Polls do their job in Quebec
OTTAWA—Many Canadians may have breathed a sigh of relief when the Parti Québécois was soundly defeated by Philippe Couillard’s Liberals in last week’s provincial election. They were very likely joined by the pollsters who had stuck their neck out during the campaign. The polls in Quebec proved to be quite accurate. Though the results […]
Who is the frontrunner to win in Ontario?
OTTAWA—Canada’s largest province appears to be heading towards an election, but the outcome could be one of the closest in recent memory. The results from the two by-elections held earlier this month likely did little to deter the New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives from teaming up to defeat Kathleen Wynne’s minority Liberal government at […]
Quebec provincial politics likely to make waves in Ottawa
If the polls have it, the Parti Québécois could very well emerge out of a spring provincial election with a majority government. Surveys conducted by CROP and Léger between Jan. 16 and 19 agreed that the race was close. The PQ has registered between 35 and 36 per cent support in the two polls, […]
Trudeau voted most valuable politician in 2013, Mulcair biggest comeback
PARLIAMENT HILL—It’s been a rollercoaster of a year on Parliament Hill, with the election of a new Liberal leader and the eruption of a major expense scandal in the Senate that’s now also ensnared the Prime Minister’s Office, and this year, respondents to The Hill Times’ 17th Most Valuable Politician & All Politics Poll […]
Will polls get back on track in 2014?
OTTAWA—“There is every reason to hope,” I wrote in these pages this time last year, “that 2013 could be redemptive for the [polling] industry.” It was not a very prescient forecast. The polls in Alberta had done a poor job of predicting the eventual electoral outcome in 2012, but the jury is still out […]
The dangers of great expectations
OTTAWA—The last polls before The Hill Times went to press show that the Liberals are well-positioned to win three of the four byelections taking place on Nov. 25 in Ontario, Quebec, and Manitoba. The Liberals are the incumbent party in two of those ridings (Bourassa, Que., and Toronto Centre, Ont.), while the Conservatives are […]
Lessons learned from Nova Scotia polling
OTTAWA—When the votes were counted in Nova Scotia’s election on Oct. 8, the result was what many had hoped it would be: a strong performance after so many disappointments. Their death had been predicted so many times, but they managed to show they could still pull it off. No, I’m not talking about the […]
