Alberta latest case of a volatile electorate
Voters have gone wild. When Jim Prentice called an election last month, hoping to extend the long reign of his Progressive Conservatives into its 44th year and beyond, the outcome was a foregone conclusion. Wildrose was crippled by a mass defection that included its former leader, Danielle Smith. The Tories had notched up 12 consecutive […]
Quebec wild card in 2015 election
OTTAWA—The results of the 2011 federal election demonstrated that, when it comes to Quebec, assumptions can prove completely wrong. In 2015, Quebec is showing that it is impossible to assume anything at all. Nowhere else in Canada is the electoral math more difficult to calculate than in Quebec, where most polls show no party garnering […]
Will the NDP let a Prairie opportunity go by?
The provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba should be fertile ground for the New Democrats. Saskatchewan is the spiritual home of the party as well as its first leader, Tommy Douglas. Manitoba is currently run by the only NDP government in the country. The Conservatives are down in the polls and new riding boundaries make the […]
How likely are Liberal gains in southwestern Ontario?
OTTAWA—Liberals travelled to London last week for a two-day caucus meeting. The choice of destination was no accident—southwestern Ontario is a region where the Liberals hope to gain some seats. But just how much of a battleground is the region setting up to be? Southwestern Ontario has swung towards the Conservatives in dramatic fashion over […]
The good, the bad, and the ugly in 2014 polls
Seldom does a poll get published without some sarcastic reference to premiers Danielle Smith and Adrian Dix, the would-be victors of the provincial elections held in 2012 in Alberta and 2013 in British Columbia. Those were bad years for the public image of the polling industry. But while 2014 was by no means perfect, […]
Mulcair voted most valuable politician in 2014, Trudeau and May ranked second, third
The partisan tension gripping Parliament in the lead-up to a federal election as well as a desire for cross-party cooperation and a softening of partisan rhetoric were reflected in The Hill Times’ 18th Annual Most Valuable Politician & All Politics Poll. NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair was named this year’s Most Valuable Politician, while Liberal Leader […]
NDP still the party to beat in Quebec
The New Democrats have been hit hard by the surge in popularity for the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau. The NDP has fallen to third place in national voting intentions, trailing both the Liberals and the Conservatives by a wide margin. Without a dramatic change in fortunes, the NDP is on track to return […]
Will a new party in Quebec change the game in 2015?
As if the political scene in Quebec wasn’t complicated enough, a new party in the province will be seeking votes in next year’s federal election. Forces et Démocratie (FeD) was launched two weeks by Jean-François Fortin, the MP for the Eastern Quebec riding of Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia. A former Bloc Québécois MP and contestant to replace […]
New Brunswick shows little can change in a year
There was a year to go until the next scheduled election. The polls were looking good for the Liberals and their young leader, as the party enjoyed a comfortable lead over the governing Tories. The polling lead held and a year later the Tories were defeated and the Liberals formed a majority government. No, this […]
Summer lull unlikely to improve Tory fortunes
OTTAWA—Support has tended to hold firm over the summer months in the past, which is bad news for the Tories. The Conservatives left Ottawa at the start of the summer trailing in the polls and down roughly 10 points from where they were on election night in 2011. If recent history is any guide, the […]
