NDP still the party to beat in Quebec
The New Democrats have been hit hard by the surge in popularity for the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau. The NDP has fallen to third place in national voting intentions, trailing both the Liberals and the Conservatives by a wide margin. Without a dramatic change in fortunes, the NDP is on track to return […]
Will a new party in Quebec change the game in 2015?
As if the political scene in Quebec wasn’t complicated enough, a new party in the province will be seeking votes in next year’s federal election. Forces et Démocratie (FeD) was launched two weeks by Jean-François Fortin, the MP for the Eastern Quebec riding of Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia. A former Bloc Québécois MP and contestant to replace […]
New Brunswick shows little can change in a year
There was a year to go until the next scheduled election. The polls were looking good for the Liberals and their young leader, as the party enjoyed a comfortable lead over the governing Tories. The polling lead held and a year later the Tories were defeated and the Liberals formed a majority government. No, this […]
Summer lull unlikely to improve Tory fortunes
OTTAWA—Support has tended to hold firm over the summer months in the past, which is bad news for the Tories. The Conservatives left Ottawa at the start of the summer trailing in the polls and down roughly 10 points from where they were on election night in 2011. If recent history is any guide, the […]
Ontario polls show how it should be done
OTTAWA—No, the provincial election results in Ontario were not to polling what the most recent provincial elections in Alberta and British Columbia were, despite the claims of some. Most polls, whether they were recording the intentions of likely or all eligible voters, had the Liberals winning, the Progressive Conservatives in second, and the New Democrats […]
Nothing new in confusing Ontario polls: Éric Grenier
The polls have done little to help clarify the political landscape in Ontario as the provincial election campaign approaches mid-point. At time of writing, the last three polls released to the public showed either a lead for Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives, a lead for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals, or a tie between the two. Since the […]
Approval ratings point to advantage for NDP and Mulcair
OTTAWA—Horserace polling has its limitations. Opinions can change quickly and support can be parked with little to no commitment. Voters take many things into consideration when casting a ballot for a party: the local candidate, the wider context of who is most likely to form government, or specific policy proposals. How they feel about […]
Polls do their job in Quebec
OTTAWA—Many Canadians may have breathed a sigh of relief when the Parti Québécois was soundly defeated by Philippe Couillard’s Liberals in last week’s provincial election. They were very likely joined by the pollsters who had stuck their neck out during the campaign. The polls in Quebec proved to be quite accurate. Though the results […]
Who is the frontrunner to win in Ontario?
OTTAWA—Canada’s largest province appears to be heading towards an election, but the outcome could be one of the closest in recent memory. The results from the two by-elections held earlier this month likely did little to deter the New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives from teaming up to defeat Kathleen Wynne’s minority Liberal government at […]
Quebec provincial politics likely to make waves in Ottawa
If the polls have it, the Parti Québécois could very well emerge out of a spring provincial election with a majority government. Surveys conducted by CROP and Léger between Jan. 16 and 19 agreed that the race was close. The PQ has registered between 35 and 36 per cent support in the two polls, […]
