Effectiveness of third-party ads offers explanation for early election call
The powerful effects of a third-party anti-Harper ad may explain why we are in the midst of the longest election campaign in recent history, according to the ad tests we have been running at Innovative Research Group. So far we have tested 10 ads in this election from the three major parties and two interest […]
Leadership critical in early voter decisions
Election news reports are filled with stories of leaders and polls. But how important are leaders as people decide which party to vote for? And how important are perceptions of who is likely to win as voters make up their minds? This week we focus on the elements of voter decisions that are most likely […]
NDP whittles away at the Conservatives’ voting coalition
The voting coalition that propelled the Conservatives to a majority victory in 2011 was a formidable one. It combined the party’s traditional stronghold of the West with voters in rural and suburban Ontario, with a strong emphasis on new Canadians. It united the fastest growing parts of the country, leading many to argue that the […]
Hard to sugar coat Conservatives’ polling data
OTTAWA—Buoyed by the victory of their provincial cousins in Alberta, the federal New Democrats have moved into a three-way tie with the Liberals and Conservatives. As the NDP eats into the Liberals’ vote, the Conservatives stand to benefit from a divided centre-left, and remain the favourite to win the most seats in this fall’s election. […]
Alberta latest case of a volatile electorate
Voters have gone wild. When Jim Prentice called an election last month, hoping to extend the long reign of his Progressive Conservatives into its 44th year and beyond, the outcome was a foregone conclusion. Wildrose was crippled by a mass defection that included its former leader, Danielle Smith. The Tories had notched up 12 consecutive […]
Quebec wild card in 2015 election
OTTAWA—The results of the 2011 federal election demonstrated that, when it comes to Quebec, assumptions can prove completely wrong. In 2015, Quebec is showing that it is impossible to assume anything at all. Nowhere else in Canada is the electoral math more difficult to calculate than in Quebec, where most polls show no party garnering […]
Will the NDP let a Prairie opportunity go by?
The provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba should be fertile ground for the New Democrats. Saskatchewan is the spiritual home of the party as well as its first leader, Tommy Douglas. Manitoba is currently run by the only NDP government in the country. The Conservatives are down in the polls and new riding boundaries make the […]
How likely are Liberal gains in southwestern Ontario?
OTTAWA—Liberals travelled to London last week for a two-day caucus meeting. The choice of destination was no accident—southwestern Ontario is a region where the Liberals hope to gain some seats. But just how much of a battleground is the region setting up to be? Southwestern Ontario has swung towards the Conservatives in dramatic fashion over […]
The good, the bad, and the ugly in 2014 polls
Seldom does a poll get published without some sarcastic reference to premiers Danielle Smith and Adrian Dix, the would-be victors of the provincial elections held in 2012 in Alberta and 2013 in British Columbia. Those were bad years for the public image of the polling industry. But while 2014 was by no means perfect, […]
Mulcair voted most valuable politician in 2014, Trudeau and May ranked second, third
The partisan tension gripping Parliament in the lead-up to a federal election as well as a desire for cross-party cooperation and a softening of partisan rhetoric were reflected in The Hill Times’ 18th Annual Most Valuable Politician & All Politics Poll. NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair was named this year’s Most Valuable Politician, while Liberal Leader […]
