How likely are Liberal gains in southwestern Ontario?
OTTAWA—Liberals travelled to London last week for a two-day caucus meeting. The choice of destination was no accident—southwestern Ontario is a region where the Liberals hope to gain some seats. But just how much of a battleground is the region setting up to be? Southwestern Ontario has swung towards the Conservatives in dramatic fashion over […]
The good, the bad, and the ugly in 2014 polls
Seldom does a poll get published without some sarcastic reference to premiers Danielle Smith and Adrian Dix, the would-be victors of the provincial elections held in 2012 in Alberta and 2013 in British Columbia. Those were bad years for the public image of the polling industry. But while 2014 was by no means perfect, […]
Mulcair voted most valuable politician in 2014, Trudeau and May ranked second, third
The partisan tension gripping Parliament in the lead-up to a federal election as well as a desire for cross-party cooperation and a softening of partisan rhetoric were reflected in The Hill Times’ 18th Annual Most Valuable Politician & All Politics Poll. NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair was named this year’s Most Valuable Politician, while Liberal Leader […]
NDP still the party to beat in Quebec
The New Democrats have been hit hard by the surge in popularity for the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau. The NDP has fallen to third place in national voting intentions, trailing both the Liberals and the Conservatives by a wide margin. Without a dramatic change in fortunes, the NDP is on track to return […]
Will a new party in Quebec change the game in 2015?
As if the political scene in Quebec wasn’t complicated enough, a new party in the province will be seeking votes in next year’s federal election. Forces et Démocratie (FeD) was launched two weeks by Jean-François Fortin, the MP for the Eastern Quebec riding of Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia. A former Bloc Québécois MP and contestant to replace […]
New Brunswick shows little can change in a year
There was a year to go until the next scheduled election. The polls were looking good for the Liberals and their young leader, as the party enjoyed a comfortable lead over the governing Tories. The polling lead held and a year later the Tories were defeated and the Liberals formed a majority government. No, this […]
Summer lull unlikely to improve Tory fortunes
OTTAWA—Support has tended to hold firm over the summer months in the past, which is bad news for the Tories. The Conservatives left Ottawa at the start of the summer trailing in the polls and down roughly 10 points from where they were on election night in 2011. If recent history is any guide, the […]
Ontario polls show how it should be done
OTTAWA—No, the provincial election results in Ontario were not to polling what the most recent provincial elections in Alberta and British Columbia were, despite the claims of some. Most polls, whether they were recording the intentions of likely or all eligible voters, had the Liberals winning, the Progressive Conservatives in second, and the New Democrats […]
Nothing new in confusing Ontario polls: Éric Grenier
The polls have done little to help clarify the political landscape in Ontario as the provincial election campaign approaches mid-point. At time of writing, the last three polls released to the public showed either a lead for Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives, a lead for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals, or a tie between the two. Since the […]
Approval ratings point to advantage for NDP and Mulcair
OTTAWA—Horserace polling has its limitations. Opinions can change quickly and support can be parked with little to no commitment. Voters take many things into consideration when casting a ballot for a party: the local candidate, the wider context of who is most likely to form government, or specific policy proposals. How they feel about […]
