Polling evidence favours Liberal victory: Lyle
VANCOUVER—After a tumultuous, negative, and generally unsatisfying election, the two main parties are limping to a photo-finish. While it is close enough that I would not make a big bet or take odds, all evidence we see points to a Liberal victory on Monday night. The Liberals led the CPC by between two and four […]
Election 2019 was a ‘campaign of fear,’ say pollsters
Nasty, negative messaging by the Liberal and Conservatives parties sapped enthusiasm from voters, and failed to generate momentum for either party as of the final week of the campaign. “This campaign has been a campaign of fear,” said Greg Lyle, the pollster behind Innovative Research Group. Both Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew […]
The astrophysicist whose polling aggregator is projecting the election
Mired in a growing frustration with how political polls were being reported on, a Quebec astrophysicist tried his hand at aggregating polls and projecting the 2018 Quebec election. Three provincial elections later, Philippe Fournier is hoping to correctly predict 90 per cent of the winning candidates of the Oct. 21 vote. From coast-to-coast-to-coast—from Nunavut to […]
Debt, deficit ‘not ballot booth issues’ for most Canadians: pollsters
A majority of Canadian voters doesn’t rank balancing the budget or managing federal debt as key issues, say two leading pollsters. The proportion of people who say Canada’s federal debt should be a top priority for the government fell from 88 per cent during the debt crisis in the mid-1990s to 61 per cent this […]
Scare tactics still a winning strategy for Grits, Tories
VANCOUVER—It has been an eventful campaign so far, but the question now is, where will this all take us? Both Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet have made big personal breakthroughs. Singh, in particular, is building capital, not just within NDP partisans but among other parties’ supporters as well. As a result, more voters are considering […]
Conservative gains in Ontario before campaign due to ‘Ford being quiet,’ but pollster says Trudeau’s attacks may not be working
Many Liberal candidates say Ontario Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford’s unpopularity is still a significant issue at the doors more than halfway through the election campaign, with some political strategists saying that voters who backed Mr. Ford in 2018 are upset with the Ontario government’s record one year in, and may now look to back […]
Plurality of voters approves of Trudeau’s handling of blackface controversy: poll
The Liberals have made it through the blackface controversy with their lead intact. There is no significant change in Liberal support at the national or regional level. There are also no major changes in Trudeau’s “favourables,” and his lead on “best prime minister” is marginally stronger. Yet, while the national story is good for the […]
Time reporter Kambhampaty says she learned of Trudeau’s brownface use from ‘gossip’ among Vancouver school’s community
The U.S.-based Time Magazine reporter who broke the story about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wearing brownface at an Arabian Nights-themed party in Vancouver says she learned about the existence of the picture from ongoing gossip among the Westpoint Grey Academy community. “I had heard about it as a source of gossip in Vancouver community and, […]
If voters see a common theme, Trudeau’s blackface controversy will change the campaign: Greg Lyle
VANCOUVER—It is true that campaigns matter—just ask former Wildrose leader Danielle Smith. It is also true that most campaign controversies, even ones as juicy as the Trudeau Blackface controversy, ultimately have only a limited impact on the election result. Paul Simon told us why when 50 years ago he sang, “Still a man hears what […]
More parties, more polls, and voter ‘malaise’: tracking 2019 trickier, pollsters say
With more parties in the mix, voter ‘malaise,’ and a tight race among the top-two, pollsters are bringing new approaches to 2019 as they try to keep up with trends during a breakneck 40-day campaign they say will be more challenging than the last one. With six parties to consider and the Liberals and Conservatives […]
