Ontario’s election on the Potomac

For a third successive election, the Liberals finished third and, in all three, their leader was defeated. That has never happened before and is an ominous signal. Like the provincial Liberals in all four Western provinces, the Ontario Liberal party may become a perpetually distant also-ran.
Meta ad spending indicates Conservatives ready for election whenever, and whoever the Liberals choose, say strategists

While the NDP can’t compete with the cash other parties have spent on Meta ads, an unorthodox swing is ‘exactly what the underdog needs right now,’ says former digital director Michael Roy.
Canadian democracy remains strong, but trust is low in politicians and parties: reports

Two international studies show Canada’s democratic institutions remain the most robust in the Americas, but a domestic survey of trust shows bad news for the country’s political figures.
In the heart of Montreal, Liberals look to maintain dominance and avoid repeat of byelection shock

Liberal leadership candidates faced off in battleground Montreal near the epicentre of their September byelection loss.
Trump plays ‘starring role’ in latest Liberal and Conservative ads

New videos ads from the Grits and Tories are an ‘opening salvo’ as both parties look to ‘make sure their voice is heard’ between now and when a new Liberal leader is chosen, says former Liberal PMO staffer Dan Arnold.
Trudeau’s exit, Trump’s threats, and plan to scrap carbon tax tighten polls, say pollsters

For the Liberals to recover more of their lost political ground, Pierre Poilievre would have to make some missteps, says pollster Nik Nanos. Also, ‘Justin Trudeau is no longer on the menu.’
Ontario embarks on snap election as pundits say provincial leaders will distance themselves from federal counterparts

Ontarians will head to the polls in a snap provincial election on Feb. 27, just over a week before federal Liberal Party members choose their next leader—and the next prime minister.
Jan. 30 deadline for $50,000 non-refundable deposit narrowed Liberal leadership field, Battiste drops out, backs Carney

After the Jan. 30 deadline, leadership candidates must pay an additional non-refundable $250,000 to the party, as required by leadership election rules.
Conservative politicos say carbon tax still a ballot-box issue in next election, despite Liberals’ proposed policy flip-flop

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre indicates he won’t change his ‘axe the tax’ messaging in light of some Liberal leadership candidates planning to drop the consumer carbon price.
Some Liberals want election called before House returns on March 24

The success and failure of a potential Liberal call for an early election will depend on where the U.S. tariff threat is at that point in time, says pollster Greg Lyle.