Poilievre will need to win a clear majority in next election or Trudeau could stay in power with support of left-of-centre parties, say politicos
The three left-of-centre parties tried to unseat Stephen Harper’s Conservatives after the 2008 election, and they could prevent Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre from forming government after the next election, says Ipsos Public Affairs CEO Darrell Bricker.
Even after failing to win a majority twice, Trudeau best-placed to go up against Poilievre in next election, but he’s also going to need luck, say politicos
To win their fourth mandate in a row, the Liberals need everything to go right for them and go wrong for the Conservatives and the NDP, says pollster Nik Nanos.
‘High-velocity’ fundraising to end 2022 will validate a ‘hyper-toxic’ atmosphere as parties take election footing: Nanos
‘There’s an energy in the political system right now, and the choices over the next election are becoming clearer,’ says pollster David Coletto.
Top 100: the most influential people in government and politics in 2023
This year’s 100 most influential list is peppered with the politicians, political staffers and strategists, public servants, and media who help shape policy, hold the government to account, and wield influence behind the scenes.
Trudeau’s ‘boredom’ problem
If Canadians are simply bored of Justin Trudeau, he still has a path to victory. But if Canadians are bored of Trudeau and also think he’s an incompetent leader, that’s a different story. In such a case, the Liberals probably should panic.
Notley’s policy gambit
Anyone who’s expecting the Alberta election to be a battle of policy platforms will be sorely disappointed.
As NDP ups pressure on health care, a PM focused on re-election may not want to make supply-and-confidence deal last, says strategist
Pollster David Coletto says opposition parties have not yet drawn clear ‘battle lines’ to differentiate their own positions from the government.
Liberals enjoy boost from ‘nervous New Democrats,’ while Poilievre may need to ‘recalibrate’ media strategy after Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection, say strategists
Less-partisan voters who ‘turn on the radio’ to ‘hear some quick news’ may be better reached through traditional platforms like CBC or CTV, says Conservative strategist Shakir Chambers.
May says she’ll lead Greens in a snap election, but wants Pedneault centre stage by 2025
Elizabeth May’s running mate Jonathan Pedneault says he does not plan to seek a seat before the next general election, at which time he will run in his home province of Quebec.
Closing in on party totals, Poilievre leadership win would put Tory fundraising juggernaut ‘on steroids,’ says Powers
The Conservative Party’s fundraising juggernaut continues to pull ahead of its main political rivals—raising more money than the Liberals and NDP combined for the past two quarters—and strategists say the numbers from the party’s leadership contest suggest that a win by MP Pierre Poilievre would be like a shot of “steroids” for the Tory apparatus. […]
