America’s worrying political trend

No matter who wins the presidential election on Nov. 5, the majority of Americans will probably feel like they lost, and that’s not good for democracy.
If Conservatives follow their own rules, 32 incumbent MPs including Poilievre, Uppal, and Hallan may have to go through nomination contests: riding redistribution analysis

The Conservative Party will have to follow the nomination rules fairly or it will cause fissures in the caucus, says Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs
Expected Conservative win in Monday’s Durham byelection will be measured against O’Toole’s winning margins, say political players

In Durham, the Tories have been outperforming the national party average by about a 12 per cent margin, so it remains to be seen if Jamil Jivani can meet this benchmark, says Fred DeLorey, former Conservative campaign director.
Oliphant’s leaked private conversation could have a ‘chilling effect’ on MP-constituent relations, say some Liberal MPs

Unforced errors like Rob Oliphant’s leaked audiotape will make it harder for the Liberals to win the next election, says Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research.
Like ‘Tragically Hip song Boots or Hearts,’ Trudeau government getting ‘whipsawed’ every day, leadership change seems to be only option left, say political players

The almost daily controversies are majorly distracting the Liberal government from communicating its messages to Canadians, says Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.
Two GTA Conservative ridings call out party’s top brass for ‘interference’ in nominations, but HQ denies allegations

Georgetown Councillor D’Arcy Keene has launched his Conservative nomination campaign in the newly created riding of Milton East-Halton Hills South, Ont.
Rebranding the carbon tax won’t help the Liberals

If people don’t like Justin Trudeau, it follows they won’t like his policies, either. It’s guilt by association. If the rebate had another name, the carbon tax would still smell the same.
Pollsters skeptical NDP would force an election over pharmacare

Meanwhile, former Liberal staffer Dan Arnold says the government has to decide whether it wants to invest big money into pharmacare versus its other policy priorities in advance of the next election.
New rule: incumbent Conservative MPs whose ridings changed 25 per cent or more will have to go through nomination contests

A dozen current Conservative MPs have failed to meet the nomination conditions set by the party in 2022, according to a senior Conservative.
Liberal slump could be an opportunity for NDP, but polarized campaigns historically favour the Grits, say observers

In the latest Abacus Data survey, one in five NDP supporters said they voted Liberal in the last election. But one in 10 past NDP voters said they would now cast a ballot for the Conservatives.