PARLIAMENT HILL—The vote for a new Liberal leader is at least a year away, but one of the key indicators a race may be already starting has surfaced.

Party officials told The Hill Times on Wednesday a surprising demand for party memberships, between 150 to 200 new memberships a day, has been taking place since shortly after the crushing Liberal loss at the polls on May 2.

“What’s interesting is whether it’s leadership, or the party,” one of the Liberals said in reference to two possible reasons: Either the supporters of one or more prospective Liberal leadership candidates are behind the surge, or it is being driven by Liberal supporters who were sparked into a desire to join up after the party suffered its humiliating reduction to third party status in the House of Commons and Liberal voters deserted the party by the thousands.

The figures—divulged as the remaining caucus of 34 Liberal MPs had a pitched battle behind closed doors Wednesday with party chieftains who attempted to impose severe restrictions on caucus election of an interim leader as Michael Ignatieff departs—drew initial surprise from a prominent Liberal who was not involved in the caucus wrangling.

“That’s a surprising number in the context of the results,” the Liberal said, then stating that the party normally renews and issues a total of roughly 50,000 memberships annually. The figure cited to The Hill Times means roughly 2,000 membership forms have been distributed since the election, and an official said the party’s membership is currently just more than 60,000.

The phenomenon could mean one or more of the prospective leadership camps are already preparing to build bases—despite the fact that the Liberal Party’s governing board and Liberal MPs were unable to agree Wednesday on even key conditions to set the stage for the eventual leadership contest.

The caucus rebelled against an attempt by party president Alf Apps and the governing board to impose a condition of bilingualism on candidates for the post of interim leader and, likely MPs or Senators who support the eventual leadership candidacy of Toronto MP Bob Rae, another condition that would preclude the interim leader from becoming a candidate for the job of permanent leader.

Several MPs said Wednesday they want Mr. Rae as interim leader, but Mr. Rae has shown signs he wants to contest the permanent leadership post and is backed at least by former prime minister Jean Chrétien, who was also lobbying MPs to support Mr. Rae for the post of interim leader.

Outgoing Mississauga Liberal MP Paul Szabo, however, said a surge in requests for party membership forms normally occurs “as soon as you get the resignation of a leader” and said it’s unlikely any of the potential candidates are “stacking” membership forms to get a head start.

“They [party riding associations] are stocking up on memberships to be ready,” Mr. Szabo argued. “Absolutely.”

The new memberships, however, might also play a role in a series of events the Liberal governing board is attempting to put in place in advance of the party-wide membership vote to replace Mr. Ignatieff.

The board has proposed holding that election sometime between May 2012 and June 2013.

But the party’s constitution currently gives the board a deadline of May 30, 27 days following Mr. Ignatieff’s announcement he was resigning, to appoint an interim leader and also to set a date within five months, this October, for a vote by all party members to elect Mr. Ignatieff’s replacement.

Party members who oppose suggestions from some members, including Mr. Rae, that the party should be open to a merger with the NDP, have argued the five-month deadline should stand. They say it is the timetable set by the party’s constitution. But the election of a new leader, depending on who wins the contest, might also hinder long-term possibilities of a merger with the New Democrats or force the issue during a leadership campaign.

One Liberal who wants the leadership election sooner rather than later told The Hill Times he would fight a merger “with all the fibre of my being.”

Most members of the party’s caucus as well as MPs who lost election have argued in favour of a longer term for party rebuilding from the ground up, rather than immediate leadership wrangling, and possibly further polarization within the party.

The governing board has called an internet-based special convention for June 18 to amend the constitution in order to postpone the leadership question—and has set May 20 as the cut-off date for new party memberships for eligibility to elect delegates to take part in that convention.

That schedule, however, was left hanging as the caucus resisted other elements of the board’s leadership timetable and its conditions for the interim leadership selection as well as permanent leadership qualification.

Mr. Apps told a news conference following the Wednesday session he will consult further, with the presidents of all 308 Liberal riding associations, before making a final decision.

Facing calls for his resignation over the party’s decisions by angry MPs when he entered the meeting, Mr. Apps indirectly acknowledged it continued behind close doors.

Asked if MPs had called on him to resign, Mr. Apps, Mr. Ignatieff’s preference as party president when he was elected to that post, replied: “Let me say this, we always have a little bit of fun in the Liberal Party and I was happy to take it. I told them I said, ‘You know I’ve gotten hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of letters from Liberals across Canada, including 10 that said resign.”

Mr. Szabo said Mr. Rae will have to accept the fact that he won’t be able to contest the permanent leadership post if he wishes to become interim leader.

“If he is not prepared to make that commitment, he just says thank you, but no thank you [to the Liberals who want him as interim],” Mr. Szabo said.

tnaumetz@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times