By Lisa Baiton
We must “take on the world as it is, not wait around for a world we wish to be.” Prime Minister Carney’s words alerted global financial and political leaders to how we all need to act in these turbulent times.
The world is witnessing significant change in global trading assumptions and actions. The Trump administration’s pursuit of an unabashedly “America First” economic policy is challenging decades of consensus in international trade and geopolitics. Other nations, like Russia and China, have shown they will use whatever strengths they have to dominate or control valuable resources.
The lesson Canadians are learning is that economic strength isn’t just about jobs and affordability. Economic strength is geopolitical leverage and we need it to protect our nation’s sovereignty in an increasingly unstable world.
To not just survive this moment in history but to thrive, we need to take the Prime Minister’s words to heart. The “rupture” in global cooperation means we need to act and adapt to a new global dynamic.
Canada enters this moment with important advantages. A resource rich and talent heavy country, Canada benefits from a natural resource industry that attracts private investment, supports high quality jobs, and generates significant long-term economic value.
But we also have challenges. Productivity has lagged, investment has been uneven, and our competitiveness has weakened over time. In a volatile global economy, countries that struggle to attract capital and build major projects are not just hurting their economies, they are putting their very sovereignty at risk.
World events over the past year have substantially altered Canada’s economic and geopolitical circumstances. While Canada will remain a major oil and natural gas supplier for the United States, the largest consumer of oil on the planet, we also need to continue to diversify our global customer base. To be successful we need to be much more competitive for investment.
There are signs Canada is beginning to adapt to these realities. Public opinion has shifted in support of new infrastructure and resource projects, reflecting a recognition that growth matters. Recent polls show a growing appreciation that oil and natural gas remain an important part of that equation, particularly as many other sectors are facing structural challenges. In addition, majority support for growing our oil and natural gas exports, along with production, shows Canadians understand the value the industry delivers to the economy and the need to diversify customers to strengthen our energy security and economic independence.
Policy tone has evolved as well. More constructive engagement between governments and industry, and a renewed focus on competitiveness, are positive developments. These shifts suggest a growing awareness that Canada must act decisively if it hopes to keep pace with global competitors. But recognition is only a first step. Around the world, investment capital is moving quickly to jurisdictions that offer clarity, certainty, and the ability to execute. Canada must ensure it remains one of them.
After years of uncertainty, investors need durable signals that Canada is serious about growth and competitiveness.
We cannot fall back into the patterns of the past decade with an ever-changing regulatory regime and distrust across jurisdictions. For example, the new federal methane rules and the proposal to significantly alter industrial carbon taxes are initiatives that do not “take on the world as it is.” Instead, they impose billions of dollars in costs on the oil and gas and other resource-based industries. Adding new costs, particularly when no other country is doing the same, will make us uncompetitive at precisely the moment we need to be doing the opposite.
Making Canada less competitive does not align with today’s global realities, nor with the federal government’s stated goal of becoming an energy superpower.
Our natural resources, in particular our world-class oil and natural gas industry, are our best cards to play to diversify our global customer base and rapidly strengthen our economy. If played right, our energy exports can put us into an advantaged position within a context of ongoing trade and geopolitical competition.
Around the world, governments are taking deliberate steps to secure energy supplies, attract capital, and strengthen economic sovereignty. Countries are also looking for new sources of trade and investment, and Canada has a global reputation as a secure and stable partner. Energy infrastructure takes years to build, but investment choices are being made today. Canada’s advantages are real—but they are not guaranteed.
Canada has what it needs to succeed: world-class resources, skilled workers, democratic stability, and an openness to private investment. Translating those strengths into lasting prosperity will depend on our ability to align interests, move decisively, and create the conditions that allow major projects to move forward.
In a changing world, economic strength and diversity are not just measures of success—they are foundations of national resilience.
Lisa Baiton is the President & CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
