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Polls are king in U.S., while in Canada they're derided: Grenier

'In the U.S., everyone seems to be celebrating the rise of the data wonk, yet in Canada, polling failures [are] pushing [the] opposite way. Polling aggregators have stunk in Canada [because] of bad polls from which to aggregate. Puts wind in [the] sails of chitchat pundits,' says Kevin Milligan.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Polling world: Meanwhile, in Canada, polling has been going through one of its darkest periods in recent memory. First there was the missed call in Alberta, when the Progressive Conservatives romped to a landslide majority victory instead of the defeat at the hands of the upstart Wildrose that was supposed to happen. In Quebec, the polls suggested that the only question going into voting day was whether the Parti Québécois would win a majority or not. Instead, Jean Charest’s Liberals lost power by only four seats. And then there was British Columbia, where polls conducted the day before the vote still gave the New Democrats an insurmountable lead—and subsequent analysis showed that adjustments for turnout would have only done away with some of the error.

 

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Polls are king in U.S., while in Canada they're derided: Grenier

'In the U.S., everyone seems to be celebrating the rise of the data wonk, yet in Canada, polling failures [are] pushing [the] opposite way. Polling aggregators have stunk in Canada [because] of bad polls from which to aggregate. Puts wind in [the] sails of chitchat pundits,' says Kevin Milligan.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Polling world: Meanwhile, in Canada, polling has been going through one of its darkest periods in recent memory. First there was the missed call in Alberta, when the Progressive Conservatives romped to a landslide majority victory instead of the defeat at the hands of the upstart Wildrose that was supposed to happen. In Quebec, the polls suggested that the only question going into voting day was whether the Parti Québécois would win a majority or not. Instead, Jean Charest’s Liberals lost power by only four seats. And then there was British Columbia, where polls conducted the day before the vote still gave the New Democrats an insurmountable lead—and subsequent analysis showed that adjustments for turnout would have only done away with some of the error.

 

  

Parliamentary Calendar
Thursday, August 21, 2014
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Remembering Devon Jacobs Aug. 19, 2014

The Hill Times photo by Jake Wright

Devon Jacobs, right, with Monte Solberg and Jim Armour at the 2012 Manning Networking Conference.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Devon Jacobs with Liberal MP Scott Simms.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Devon Jacobs with former colleague Jim Patrick, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Liberal MP Mauril Belanger at the 2013 all-party party.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Devon Jacobs, centre, with Conservative MPs (from left) Susan Truppe, Colin Carrie, Ted Opitz, Lynne Yelich and Eve Adams.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE