Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2014
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Polls are king in U.S., while in Canada they're derided: Grenier

'In the U.S., everyone seems to be celebrating the rise of the data wonk, yet in Canada, polling failures [are] pushing [the] opposite way. Polling aggregators have stunk in Canada [because] of bad polls from which to aggregate. Puts wind in [the] sails of chitchat pundits,' says Kevin Milligan.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Polling world: Meanwhile, in Canada, polling has been going through one of its darkest periods in recent memory. First there was the missed call in Alberta, when the Progressive Conservatives romped to a landslide majority victory instead of the defeat at the hands of the upstart Wildrose that was supposed to happen. In Quebec, the polls suggested that the only question going into voting day was whether the Parti Québécois would win a majority or not. Instead, Jean Charest’s Liberals lost power by only four seats. And then there was British Columbia, where polls conducted the day before the vote still gave the New Democrats an insurmountable lead—and subsequent analysis showed that adjustments for turnout would have only done away with some of the error.

 

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back to article Polls are king in U.S., while in Canada they're derided: Grenier
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Polls are king in U.S., while in Canada they're derided: Grenier

'In the U.S., everyone seems to be celebrating the rise of the data wonk, yet in Canada, polling failures [are] pushing [the] opposite way. Polling aggregators have stunk in Canada [because] of bad polls from which to aggregate. Puts wind in [the] sails of chitchat pundits,' says Kevin Milligan.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Polling world: Meanwhile, in Canada, polling has been going through one of its darkest periods in recent memory. First there was the missed call in Alberta, when the Progressive Conservatives romped to a landslide majority victory instead of the defeat at the hands of the upstart Wildrose that was supposed to happen. In Quebec, the polls suggested that the only question going into voting day was whether the Parti Québécois would win a majority or not. Instead, Jean Charest’s Liberals lost power by only four seats. And then there was British Columbia, where polls conducted the day before the vote still gave the New Democrats an insurmountable lead—and subsequent analysis showed that adjustments for turnout would have only done away with some of the error.

 

  

Parliamentary Calendar
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Earnscliffe's 25th anniversary shindig in Ottawa: Oct. 15, 2014 Oct. 20, 2014

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The crowd at Earnscliffe's 25th anniversary party on Oct. 15 at its Chambers Building office in Ottawa. About 250 people came out to the party.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Labour Minister Kellie Leitch and CTV's Power Play host Don Martin.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Dan Rogers and Craig Robinson.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Jim Patrick and Bernard Lord.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Hugh Winsor and CTV's Power Play host Don Martin.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
William Stairs.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Former prime minister Joe Clark.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Hugh Segal, Harry Near, and Michael Robinson.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Hugh Segal and Harry Near regaled the crowd with some colourful speeches.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The crowd.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Bloomberg's Theo Argitis and Earnscliffe's Robin Sears chat inside Mr. Sears' office.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
It was a standing-room-only kind of an affair, with some guests standing in the stairway to hear the speeches upstairs.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Pollster Bruce Anderson who used to work at Earnscliffe at one time.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Earnscliffe's Peter Harris, left, Hill & Knowlton's Elizabeth Roscoe, centre.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Bruce Young, head of Earnscliffe's B.C. office, talks about how the West Coast office of the firm came to be.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Kaveri Braid leads the Saskatchewan office.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Earnscliffe's principal in Ottawa, Daniel Bernier.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Bill Fox, one of the founders of Earnscliffe along with Harry Near and Hugh Segal, chats up the crowd.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The Wall Street Journal's Paul Vieira.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
CIBC's director of government relations Michel Liboiron.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
NDP national director Anne McGrath.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Earnscliffe's Michael Robinson and his children, Katie Robinson and Craig Robinson.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Tom Clark, host of Global TV's The West Block.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Earnscliffe principal Velma McColl shares memories from her more than 10 years with Earnscliffe.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE