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How the Ontario election polls were so wrong yet so right

The perception remained that once again the polls blew it. That’s a bit harsh. The truth is the polls accurately captured the initial skepticism towards the Liberal Party and enthusiasm for the PCs. During the campaign, this skepticism was replaced by an even more profound skepticism of the promises of the PC party. Faced with a choice between the devil that they knew, and trusted a bit more, and one that they didn't, Ontario voters chose the former.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
While admittedly there was a lot of scatter in the data and some pollsters claim they caught the Liberal trend near the end, the media consensus on election day was that the race between Kathleen Wynne's Liberals and Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives was too close to call.

 

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How the Ontario election polls were so wrong yet so right

The perception remained that once again the polls blew it. That’s a bit harsh. The truth is the polls accurately captured the initial skepticism towards the Liberal Party and enthusiasm for the PCs. During the campaign, this skepticism was replaced by an even more profound skepticism of the promises of the PC party. Faced with a choice between the devil that they knew, and trusted a bit more, and one that they didn't, Ontario voters chose the former.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
While admittedly there was a lot of scatter in the data and some pollsters claim they caught the Liberal trend near the end, the media consensus on election day was that the race between Kathleen Wynne's Liberals and Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives was too close to call.

 

  

Parliamentary Calendar
Monday, September 1, 2014
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Remembering Devon Jacobs Aug. 19, 2014

The Hill Times photo by Jake Wright

Devon Jacobs, right, with Monte Solberg and Jim Armour at the 2012 Manning Networking Conference.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Devon Jacobs with Liberal MP Scott Simms.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Devon Jacobs with former colleague Jim Patrick, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Liberal MP Mauril Belanger at the 2013 all-party party.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Devon Jacobs, centre, with Conservative MPs (from left) Susan Truppe, Colin Carrie, Ted Opitz, Lynne Yelich and Eve Adams.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE