Saturday, April 25, 2015
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How the Ontario election polls were so wrong yet so right

The perception remained that once again the polls blew it. That’s a bit harsh. The truth is the polls accurately captured the initial skepticism towards the Liberal Party and enthusiasm for the PCs. During the campaign, this skepticism was replaced by an even more profound skepticism of the promises of the PC party. Faced with a choice between the devil that they knew, and trusted a bit more, and one that they didn't, Ontario voters chose the former.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
While admittedly there was a lot of scatter in the data and some pollsters claim they caught the Liberal trend near the end, the media consensus on election day was that the race between Kathleen Wynne's Liberals and Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives was too close to call.

 

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How the Ontario election polls were so wrong yet so right

The perception remained that once again the polls blew it. That’s a bit harsh. The truth is the polls accurately captured the initial skepticism towards the Liberal Party and enthusiasm for the PCs. During the campaign, this skepticism was replaced by an even more profound skepticism of the promises of the PC party. Faced with a choice between the devil that they knew, and trusted a bit more, and one that they didn't, Ontario voters chose the former.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
While admittedly there was a lot of scatter in the data and some pollsters claim they caught the Liberal trend near the end, the media consensus on election day was that the race between Kathleen Wynne's Liberals and Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives was too close to call.

 

  

Parliamentary Calendar
Saturday, April 25, 2015
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Vickers honoured at Douglas C. Frith dinner April 2, 2015

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The Château Laurier Ballroom was packed on Tuesday, March 31 for the Canadian Association of Former Parliamentarians dinner.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The evening began with RCMP Cpl. Craig Kennedy's rendition of O Canada.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Ambassador to Ireland Kevin Vickers was recognized as an honorary member of CAFP for his heroism as the Sergeant at Arms during the Oct. 22 shooting.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Peter O'Brian, Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett and Steve Paikin.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Rob Nicholson and former Liberal MP Sue Barnes.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Conservative MP Dean Allison.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Kevin Vickers and Conservative MP Ray Boughen.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
International Union of Operating Engineers' Steven Schumann and Canadian Labour's Nathan Rotman.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
House Deputy Speaker Joe Comartin.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Mary Dawson, Senator David Smith, and Sharon Sholzberg-Gray.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Senator Art Eggleton and Conservative MP Earl Dreeshen.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Independent MP Brent Rathgeber in conversation with TVO's Steve Paikin.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Andrew Cardozo, Pearson Centre president.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Conservative MP Jay Aspin and Kevin Vickers.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Lobbyist Leo Duguay.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
TVO host and author Steve Paikin gave an impassioned speech on what he's learned about the allure of public life.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE