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How the Ontario election polls were so wrong yet so right

The perception remained that once again the polls blew it. That’s a bit harsh. The truth is the polls accurately captured the initial skepticism towards the Liberal Party and enthusiasm for the PCs. During the campaign, this skepticism was replaced by an even more profound skepticism of the promises of the PC party. Faced with a choice between the devil that they knew, and trusted a bit more, and one that they didn't, Ontario voters chose the former.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
While admittedly there was a lot of scatter in the data and some pollsters claim they caught the Liberal trend near the end, the media consensus on election day was that the race between Kathleen Wynne's Liberals and Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives was too close to call.

 

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How the Ontario election polls were so wrong yet so right

The perception remained that once again the polls blew it. That’s a bit harsh. The truth is the polls accurately captured the initial skepticism towards the Liberal Party and enthusiasm for the PCs. During the campaign, this skepticism was replaced by an even more profound skepticism of the promises of the PC party. Faced with a choice between the devil that they knew, and trusted a bit more, and one that they didn't, Ontario voters chose the former.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
While admittedly there was a lot of scatter in the data and some pollsters claim they caught the Liberal trend near the end, the media consensus on election day was that the race between Kathleen Wynne's Liberals and Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives was too close to call.

 

  

Parliamentary Calendar
Friday, October 24, 2014
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Lockdown on the Hill, Oct. 22 Oct. 22, 2014

Anne Marie Creskey

NDP MPs on Wednesday morning at the corner of Metcalfe and Wellington streets outside the Langevin Block, where the prime minister has an office, across the street from Parliament Hill. They include Rosane Doré Lefebvre, far left, Hélène Laverdière, second from right, and Charlie Angus, far right. 

Anne Marie Creskey

NDP MP Charlie Angus and other MPs wait in front of the prime minister's office at Langevin Block, after leaving the Hill on Wednesday morning. 

Anne Marie Creskey

Ottawa Police Service officers on Parliament Hill at around 10:45 a.m.

Anne Marie Creskey

Ottawa Police cars on Wellington Street in front of the Hill on the morning of the attack.

Anne Marie Creskey

An armoured police vehicle on Metcalfe Street headed toward the Hill.

Anne Marie Creskey

More police arrive on Wellington Street.

Anne Marie Creskey

RCMP officers on Sparks Street between Elgin and Metcalfe streets on Wednesday morning. Surroundings buildings were locked down and later evacuated. 

Anne Marie Creskey

Reporters and camera crews are pushed back to the corner of Sparks and Metcalfe streets.

Anne Marie Creskey

The prime minister's office in the Langevin Block is evacuated.

Anne Marie Creskey

Police with a stretcher on Sparks Street.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE