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How the Ontario election polls were so wrong yet so right

The perception remained that once again the polls blew it. That’s a bit harsh. The truth is the polls accurately captured the initial skepticism towards the Liberal Party and enthusiasm for the PCs. During the campaign, this skepticism was replaced by an even more profound skepticism of the promises of the PC party. Faced with a choice between the devil that they knew, and trusted a bit more, and one that they didn't, Ontario voters chose the former.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
While admittedly there was a lot of scatter in the data and some pollsters claim they caught the Liberal trend near the end, the media consensus on election day was that the race between Kathleen Wynne's Liberals and Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives was too close to call.

 

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How the Ontario election polls were so wrong yet so right

The perception remained that once again the polls blew it. That’s a bit harsh. The truth is the polls accurately captured the initial skepticism towards the Liberal Party and enthusiasm for the PCs. During the campaign, this skepticism was replaced by an even more profound skepticism of the promises of the PC party. Faced with a choice between the devil that they knew, and trusted a bit more, and one that they didn't, Ontario voters chose the former.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
While admittedly there was a lot of scatter in the data and some pollsters claim they caught the Liberal trend near the end, the media consensus on election day was that the race between Kathleen Wynne's Liberals and Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives was too close to call.

 

  

Parliamentary Calendar
Friday, September 19, 2014
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Lobbyists, MPs get in on the ice bucket challenge for ALS Sept. 3, 2014

Photo courtesy Summa Strategies
The team at Summa Strategies took the ice bucket challenge last week at the Parliament Pub. Summa challenged board members from the Government Relations Institute of Canada (GRIC) to take it next. From left: intern John McHughan, vice-chairman Tim Powers, senior adviser Louis-Alexandre Lanthier, consultant Kate Harrison, vice-president Jim Armour, vice-president Robin MacLachlan, president Tracey Hubley, senior adviser Michele Austin, and consultant Angela Christiano.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The Government Relations Institute of Canada board members take the ice bucket challenge.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
GRIC directors feel the chill.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
From left: GRIC president Andre Albinati, secretary Joanne Dobson, board members Kevin Desjardins and Alayne Crawford, treasurer Phil Cartwright, and board members Alex Maheu and Jason Kerr.
Photograph provided Hill and Knowlton Strategies
Health Minister Rona Ambrose gets in on the ice bucket challenge.
Photograph courtesy Hill and Knowlton Strategies
NDP Leader Tom Mulcair.
Photograph courtesy Hill and Knowlton Strategies
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE