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Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM

Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau by 29 per cent.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
In a new version of the findings released Thursday, the Toronto polling firm said Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) was favoured as the leader who would make the best prime minister by more respondents, 29 per cent, than either Mr. Harper  (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) or Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), who actually placed third.
In the latest release, Forum Research corrected the percentage of support its earlier statement said Mr. Mulcair had received from NDP supporters and the percentage of support Mr. Trudeau had received from Liberal party supporters.
The two percentages had been inadvertently reversed in the Jan. 18 preparation of the news release, which mistakenly said Mr. Trudeau was selected as the leader who would make the best prime minister by only eight per cent of voters who supported the Liberal party.
The release mistakenly said Mr. Mulcair was selected by 65 per cent of the voters who said they were leaning toward or intended to vote Liberal. Mr. Mulcair was actually preferred by only eight per cent of Liberal supporters.
It was Mr. Trudeau who was preferred by 65 per cent of Liberal supporters, while 53 per cent of NDP supporters said Mr. Mulcair would make the best prime minister.
Those errors in transferring the poll data to the news release led to the overall incorrect ranking of the three leaders.
Mr. Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while Mr. Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent of the respondents.
Mr. Mulcair’s support rose slightly, by two percentage points, from the previous Forum poll on the topic, while Mr. Harper’s support dropped by two percentage points and Mr. Trudeau’s support remained the same over the month.
The Hill Times reported on the original poll results in a Jan. 23 online story entitled, “Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll.”
The mistake was brought to light on Thursday by Éric Grenier, founder of the polling analysis web site ThreeHundredEight.com.

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back to article Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM
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Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM

Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau by 29 per cent.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
In a new version of the findings released Thursday, the Toronto polling firm said Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) was favoured as the leader who would make the best prime minister by more respondents, 29 per cent, than either Mr. Harper  (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) or Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), who actually placed third.
In the latest release, Forum Research corrected the percentage of support its earlier statement said Mr. Mulcair had received from NDP supporters and the percentage of support Mr. Trudeau had received from Liberal party supporters.
The two percentages had been inadvertently reversed in the Jan. 18 preparation of the news release, which mistakenly said Mr. Trudeau was selected as the leader who would make the best prime minister by only eight per cent of voters who supported the Liberal party.
The release mistakenly said Mr. Mulcair was selected by 65 per cent of the voters who said they were leaning toward or intended to vote Liberal. Mr. Mulcair was actually preferred by only eight per cent of Liberal supporters.
It was Mr. Trudeau who was preferred by 65 per cent of Liberal supporters, while 53 per cent of NDP supporters said Mr. Mulcair would make the best prime minister.
Those errors in transferring the poll data to the news release led to the overall incorrect ranking of the three leaders.
Mr. Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while Mr. Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent of the respondents.
Mr. Mulcair’s support rose slightly, by two percentage points, from the previous Forum poll on the topic, while Mr. Harper’s support dropped by two percentage points and Mr. Trudeau’s support remained the same over the month.
The Hill Times reported on the original poll results in a Jan. 23 online story entitled, “Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll.”
The mistake was brought to light on Thursday by Éric Grenier, founder of the polling analysis web site ThreeHundredEight.com.

  

Parliamentary Calendar
Monday, October 20, 2014
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Earnscliffe's 25th anniversary shindig in Ottawa: Oct. 15, 2014 Oct. 20, 2014

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The crowd at Earnscliffe's 25th anniversary party on Oct. 15 at its Chambers Building office in Ottawa. About 250 people came out to the party.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Labour Minister Kellie Leitch and CTV's Power Play host Don Martin.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Dan Rogers and Craig Robinson.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Jim Patrick and Bernard Lord.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Hugh Winsor and CTV's Power Play host Don Martin.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
William Stairs.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Former prime minister Joe Clark.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Hugh Segal, Harry Near, and Michael Robinson.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Hugh Segal and Harry Near regaled the crowd with some colourful speeches.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The crowd.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Bloomberg's Theo Argitis and Earnscliffe's Robin Sears chat inside Mr. Sears' office.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
It was a standing-room-only kind of an affair, with some guests standing in the stairway to hear the speeches upstairs.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Pollster Bruce Anderson who used to work at Earnscliffe at one time.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Earnscliffe's Peter Harris, left, Hill & Knowlton's Elizabeth Roscoe, centre.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Bruce Young, head of Earnscliffe's B.C. office, talks about how the West Coast office of the firm came to be.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Kaveri Braid leads the Saskatchewan office.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Earnscliffe's principal in Ottawa, Daniel Bernier.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Bill Fox, one of the founders of Earnscliffe along with Harry Near and Hugh Segal, chats up the crowd.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The Wall Street Journal's Paul Vieira.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
CIBC's director of government relations Michel Liboiron.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
NDP national director Anne McGrath.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Earnscliffe's Michael Robinson and his children, Katie Robinson and Craig Robinson.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Tom Clark, host of Global TV's The West Block.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Earnscliffe principal Velma McColl shares memories from her more than 10 years with Earnscliffe.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE