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Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM

Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau by 29 per cent.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
In a new version of the findings released Thursday, the Toronto polling firm said Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) was favoured as the leader who would make the best prime minister by more respondents, 29 per cent, than either Mr. Harper  (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) or Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), who actually placed third.
In the latest release, Forum Research corrected the percentage of support its earlier statement said Mr. Mulcair had received from NDP supporters and the percentage of support Mr. Trudeau had received from Liberal party supporters.
The two percentages had been inadvertently reversed in the Jan. 18 preparation of the news release, which mistakenly said Mr. Trudeau was selected as the leader who would make the best prime minister by only eight per cent of voters who supported the Liberal party.
The release mistakenly said Mr. Mulcair was selected by 65 per cent of the voters who said they were leaning toward or intended to vote Liberal. Mr. Mulcair was actually preferred by only eight per cent of Liberal supporters.
It was Mr. Trudeau who was preferred by 65 per cent of Liberal supporters, while 53 per cent of NDP supporters said Mr. Mulcair would make the best prime minister.
Those errors in transferring the poll data to the news release led to the overall incorrect ranking of the three leaders.
Mr. Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while Mr. Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent of the respondents.
Mr. Mulcair’s support rose slightly, by two percentage points, from the previous Forum poll on the topic, while Mr. Harper’s support dropped by two percentage points and Mr. Trudeau’s support remained the same over the month.
The Hill Times reported on the original poll results in a Jan. 23 online story entitled, “Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll.”
The mistake was brought to light on Thursday by Éric Grenier, founder of the polling analysis web site ThreeHundredEight.com.

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back to article Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM
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Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM

Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau by 29 per cent.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
In a new version of the findings released Thursday, the Toronto polling firm said Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) was favoured as the leader who would make the best prime minister by more respondents, 29 per cent, than either Mr. Harper  (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) or Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), who actually placed third.
In the latest release, Forum Research corrected the percentage of support its earlier statement said Mr. Mulcair had received from NDP supporters and the percentage of support Mr. Trudeau had received from Liberal party supporters.
The two percentages had been inadvertently reversed in the Jan. 18 preparation of the news release, which mistakenly said Mr. Trudeau was selected as the leader who would make the best prime minister by only eight per cent of voters who supported the Liberal party.
The release mistakenly said Mr. Mulcair was selected by 65 per cent of the voters who said they were leaning toward or intended to vote Liberal. Mr. Mulcair was actually preferred by only eight per cent of Liberal supporters.
It was Mr. Trudeau who was preferred by 65 per cent of Liberal supporters, while 53 per cent of NDP supporters said Mr. Mulcair would make the best prime minister.
Those errors in transferring the poll data to the news release led to the overall incorrect ranking of the three leaders.
Mr. Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while Mr. Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent of the respondents.
Mr. Mulcair’s support rose slightly, by two percentage points, from the previous Forum poll on the topic, while Mr. Harper’s support dropped by two percentage points and Mr. Trudeau’s support remained the same over the month.
The Hill Times reported on the original poll results in a Jan. 23 online story entitled, “Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll.”
The mistake was brought to light on Thursday by Éric Grenier, founder of the polling analysis web site ThreeHundredEight.com.

  
Parliamentary Calendar
Sunday, July 12, 2015
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Fourth of July party at U.S. ambassador's residence July 6, 2015

The Hill Times photograph by Sam Garcia

The dance floor was packed all evening, as The Digs played an assortment of Motown tunes. Even the Band of the Governor General's Foot Guards got in on the fun.

The Hill Times photograph by Sam Garcia

U.S. Ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman addressing a tent full of diplomats early in the evening, joined by his wife, Vicki, and Foreign Affairs Minister Rob Nicholson and his wife, Arlene.

The Hill Times photograph by Sam Garcia

Foreign Affairs Minister Rob Nicholson addressing a tent full of diplomats early in the evening, with his wife Arlene and Mr. and Mrs. Heyman.

The Hill Times photograph by Sam Garcia

U.S. Ambassador Bruce Heyman getting down on the dance floor, as Donna Chevrier, owner of Ola Cocina restaurant, looks on.

The Hill Times photograph by Sam Garcia

Bruce and Vicki Heyman, joined onstage by their two daughters, Liza and Caroline.

The Hill Times photograph by Sam Garcia

Bruce and Vicki Heyman testing out one of the vintage cars on display.

The Hill Times photograph by Sam Garcia

Cakes from Eli's Cheesecake were flown in from Chicago just for the event—salted caramel, chocolate chip and blackberry sour cream. Shockingly, no pie was served at these Fourth of July festivities.

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