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Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM

Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau by 29 per cent.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
In a new version of the findings released Thursday, the Toronto polling firm said Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) was favoured as the leader who would make the best prime minister by more respondents, 29 per cent, than either Mr. Harper  (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) or Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), who actually placed third.
In the latest release, Forum Research corrected the percentage of support its earlier statement said Mr. Mulcair had received from NDP supporters and the percentage of support Mr. Trudeau had received from Liberal party supporters.
The two percentages had been inadvertently reversed in the Jan. 18 preparation of the news release, which mistakenly said Mr. Trudeau was selected as the leader who would make the best prime minister by only eight per cent of voters who supported the Liberal party.
The release mistakenly said Mr. Mulcair was selected by 65 per cent of the voters who said they were leaning toward or intended to vote Liberal. Mr. Mulcair was actually preferred by only eight per cent of Liberal supporters.
It was Mr. Trudeau who was preferred by 65 per cent of Liberal supporters, while 53 per cent of NDP supporters said Mr. Mulcair would make the best prime minister.
Those errors in transferring the poll data to the news release led to the overall incorrect ranking of the three leaders.
Mr. Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while Mr. Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent of the respondents.
Mr. Mulcair’s support rose slightly, by two percentage points, from the previous Forum poll on the topic, while Mr. Harper’s support dropped by two percentage points and Mr. Trudeau’s support remained the same over the month.
The Hill Times reported on the original poll results in a Jan. 23 online story entitled, “Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll.”
The mistake was brought to light on Thursday by Éric Grenier, founder of the polling analysis web site ThreeHundredEight.com.

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back to article Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM
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Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM

Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau by 29 per cent.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
In a new version of the findings released Thursday, the Toronto polling firm said Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) was favoured as the leader who would make the best prime minister by more respondents, 29 per cent, than either Mr. Harper  (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) or Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), who actually placed third.
In the latest release, Forum Research corrected the percentage of support its earlier statement said Mr. Mulcair had received from NDP supporters and the percentage of support Mr. Trudeau had received from Liberal party supporters.
The two percentages had been inadvertently reversed in the Jan. 18 preparation of the news release, which mistakenly said Mr. Trudeau was selected as the leader who would make the best prime minister by only eight per cent of voters who supported the Liberal party.
The release mistakenly said Mr. Mulcair was selected by 65 per cent of the voters who said they were leaning toward or intended to vote Liberal. Mr. Mulcair was actually preferred by only eight per cent of Liberal supporters.
It was Mr. Trudeau who was preferred by 65 per cent of Liberal supporters, while 53 per cent of NDP supporters said Mr. Mulcair would make the best prime minister.
Those errors in transferring the poll data to the news release led to the overall incorrect ranking of the three leaders.
Mr. Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while Mr. Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent of the respondents.
Mr. Mulcair’s support rose slightly, by two percentage points, from the previous Forum poll on the topic, while Mr. Harper’s support dropped by two percentage points and Mr. Trudeau’s support remained the same over the month.
The Hill Times reported on the original poll results in a Jan. 23 online story entitled, “Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll.”
The mistake was brought to light on Thursday by Éric Grenier, founder of the polling analysis web site ThreeHundredEight.com.

  
Parliamentary Calendar
Friday, May 22, 2015
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Canadian talent centre stage at SOCAN Hill reception May 19, 2015

The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
The crowd dancing and singing along to Alex Nevsky's performance, in the Aboriginal Peoples Committee room.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Liberal MP Stéphane Dion, SOCAN CEO Eric Baptiste, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, President of the SOCAN Board of Directors Stan Meissner, and SOCAN Chief Quebec Affairs Officer Geneviève Côté, pictured May 12 at the event.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Conservative MP Gord Brown, chair of the House Canadian Heritage Committee.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
NDP MPs Rathika Sitsabaiesan and Pierre Nantel take a selfie during the concert.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Canadian performing artist Sarah Slean.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
DFATD Director General Marcel Lebleu, Environics Communications' Louis-Charles Roy, Alex Nevsky, and ESDC's Philippe Bernier-Arcand.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Back Row: Stéphane Dion, Sarah Slean, Mr. Brown, Eric Baptiste, Pierre Nantel, Stan Meissner, James Cowan. Front Row: Marc Ouellette, Geneviève Côté, Alex Nevsky, Laurence Lafond-Beaulne, and Gabriel Gratton.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Gabriel Gratton, Laurence Lafond-Beaulne, and Alex Nevsky performing.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Liberal MP Rodger Cuzner, SOCAN's Geneviève Côté, and Liberal MP Mark Eyking.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Sarah Slean and NDP MP Tyrone Benskin.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Conservative MP Terrence Young, SOCAN's Stan Meissner, and Eric Baptiste.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Tom Mulcair's current, and former chiefs of staff Alain Gaul and Raoul Gébert, with SOCAN's Eric Baptiste.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Sen. Cowan, Sarah Slean, and Stan Meissner.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Environics Communications' Alex Bushell, with NDP MPs Carol Hughes and Djaouida Sellah.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Alex Nevsky and Environics Communications' Greg MacEachern.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE