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Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM

Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau by 29 per cent.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
In a new version of the findings released Thursday, the Toronto polling firm said Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) was favoured as the leader who would make the best prime minister by more respondents, 29 per cent, than either Mr. Harper  (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) or Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), who actually placed third.
In the latest release, Forum Research corrected the percentage of support its earlier statement said Mr. Mulcair had received from NDP supporters and the percentage of support Mr. Trudeau had received from Liberal party supporters.
The two percentages had been inadvertently reversed in the Jan. 18 preparation of the news release, which mistakenly said Mr. Trudeau was selected as the leader who would make the best prime minister by only eight per cent of voters who supported the Liberal party.
The release mistakenly said Mr. Mulcair was selected by 65 per cent of the voters who said they were leaning toward or intended to vote Liberal. Mr. Mulcair was actually preferred by only eight per cent of Liberal supporters.
It was Mr. Trudeau who was preferred by 65 per cent of Liberal supporters, while 53 per cent of NDP supporters said Mr. Mulcair would make the best prime minister.
Those errors in transferring the poll data to the news release led to the overall incorrect ranking of the three leaders.
Mr. Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while Mr. Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent of the respondents.
Mr. Mulcair’s support rose slightly, by two percentage points, from the previous Forum poll on the topic, while Mr. Harper’s support dropped by two percentage points and Mr. Trudeau’s support remained the same over the month.
The Hill Times reported on the original poll results in a Jan. 23 online story entitled, “Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll.”
The mistake was brought to light on Thursday by Éric Grenier, founder of the polling analysis web site ThreeHundredEight.com.

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back to article Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM
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Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM

Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau by 29 per cent.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
In a new version of the findings released Thursday, the Toronto polling firm said Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) was favoured as the leader who would make the best prime minister by more respondents, 29 per cent, than either Mr. Harper  (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) or Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), who actually placed third.
In the latest release, Forum Research corrected the percentage of support its earlier statement said Mr. Mulcair had received from NDP supporters and the percentage of support Mr. Trudeau had received from Liberal party supporters.
The two percentages had been inadvertently reversed in the Jan. 18 preparation of the news release, which mistakenly said Mr. Trudeau was selected as the leader who would make the best prime minister by only eight per cent of voters who supported the Liberal party.
The release mistakenly said Mr. Mulcair was selected by 65 per cent of the voters who said they were leaning toward or intended to vote Liberal. Mr. Mulcair was actually preferred by only eight per cent of Liberal supporters.
It was Mr. Trudeau who was preferred by 65 per cent of Liberal supporters, while 53 per cent of NDP supporters said Mr. Mulcair would make the best prime minister.
Those errors in transferring the poll data to the news release led to the overall incorrect ranking of the three leaders.
Mr. Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while Mr. Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent of the respondents.
Mr. Mulcair’s support rose slightly, by two percentage points, from the previous Forum poll on the topic, while Mr. Harper’s support dropped by two percentage points and Mr. Trudeau’s support remained the same over the month.
The Hill Times reported on the original poll results in a Jan. 23 online story entitled, “Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll.”
The mistake was brought to light on Thursday by Éric Grenier, founder of the polling analysis web site ThreeHundredEight.com.

  

Parliamentary Calendar
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Former Liberal deputy prime minister Herb Gray dies at age 82: some photos from his life on the Hill April 22, 2014

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Herb Gray, the former Liberal MP, Cabinet minister, and deputy prime minister, pictured here with his daughter Elizabeth Gray-Smith, died on Monday, April 21 at the age of 82. He served in Parliament of 39 years and was one of Canada's longest-serving MPs.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Herb Gray and his former assistant Eugene Lang, pictured at a Hill reception.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Herb Gray, pictured on his way to a U.S. Embassy's Fourth of July party in Ottawa. Mr. Gray may have not been in the House in his later years, but he regularly attended Hill-related receptions.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Herb Gray at a menorah-lighting ceremony on the Hill.
The Hill Times photograph by Terry McDonald
Herb Gray, pictured back in his Centre Block office when he was in government.
The Hill Times photograph by Terry McDonald
Herb Gray, pictured in his Centre Block office, being interviewed by Bill Curry, who was a reporter for The Hill Times.
The Hill Times photograph by Terry McDonald
Herb Gray, pictured in his Centre Block office back when he was in government.
The Hill Times file photograph
Herb Gray, pictured on the Hill posing for The Hill Times.
The Hill Times file photograph
Herb Gray, pictured on the Hill back when he was a Cabinet minister.
The Hill Times file photograph
Herb Gray, pictured on Parliament Hill.
The Hill Times photograph by Terry McDonald
Herb Gray pictured with his wife, Sharon Sholzberg, on the Hill.
The Hill Times file photograph
Herb Gray, pictured in a Hill scrum.
The Hill Times file photograph
Jim Peterson and Herb Gray, pictured on a rainy day on the Hill.
The Hill Times file photograph
Jim Peterson and Herb Gray.
The Hill Times file photograph
Herb Gray, centre, pictured with the late Liberal MP Shaughnessy Cohen, and Windsor Star Hill reporter Paul McKeague, during a Hill fire drill.
The Hill Times file photograph
Herb Gray, who went esophagus cancer in 1996 and beat it, is pictured here in a Hill scrum.
The Hill Times file photograph
Herb Gray, pictured at a Parliamentary Press Gallery Dinner on the Hill.
The Hill Times file photograph by Terry McDonald
Herb Gray, pictured at the Lester B. Pearson Building in Ottawa on his way into a special Cabinet minister back when he was a Cabinet minister.
The Hill Times file photograph
Herb Gray, pictured in a Hill scrum. Allan Thompson, left, was a reporter with The Toronto Star, and Paul McKeague, pictured right behind Mr. Gray, was never far behind the MP from Windsor.
The Hill Times file photograph
Herb Gray in another Hill scrum.
The Hill Times file photograph
Herb Gray in his Centre Block office back when he was a Cabinet minister. He collected, framed, and hung up most of the editorial cartoons of himself in his Centre Block office.
The Hill Times file photo
Herb Gray and his many framed cartoons.
The Hill Times photograph by Kate Malloy
Herb Gray and his editorial cartoons, pictured in his Centre Block office.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE