Sunday, March 29, 2015
SUBSCRIBE | LOG IN
Sign up for the free daily email


Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM

Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau by 29 per cent.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
In a new version of the findings released Thursday, the Toronto polling firm said Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) was favoured as the leader who would make the best prime minister by more respondents, 29 per cent, than either Mr. Harper  (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) or Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), who actually placed third.
In the latest release, Forum Research corrected the percentage of support its earlier statement said Mr. Mulcair had received from NDP supporters and the percentage of support Mr. Trudeau had received from Liberal party supporters.
The two percentages had been inadvertently reversed in the Jan. 18 preparation of the news release, which mistakenly said Mr. Trudeau was selected as the leader who would make the best prime minister by only eight per cent of voters who supported the Liberal party.
The release mistakenly said Mr. Mulcair was selected by 65 per cent of the voters who said they were leaning toward or intended to vote Liberal. Mr. Mulcair was actually preferred by only eight per cent of Liberal supporters.
It was Mr. Trudeau who was preferred by 65 per cent of Liberal supporters, while 53 per cent of NDP supporters said Mr. Mulcair would make the best prime minister.
Those errors in transferring the poll data to the news release led to the overall incorrect ranking of the three leaders.
Mr. Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while Mr. Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent of the respondents.
Mr. Mulcair’s support rose slightly, by two percentage points, from the previous Forum poll on the topic, while Mr. Harper’s support dropped by two percentage points and Mr. Trudeau’s support remained the same over the month.
The Hill Times reported on the original poll results in a Jan. 23 online story entitled, “Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll.”
The mistake was brought to light on Thursday by Éric Grenier, founder of the polling analysis web site ThreeHundredEight.com.

To View the rest of this article, please choose one of the following

If you are already a subscriber

Subscribe to The Hill Times

Subscribe to the print and electronic editions and get instant access to The Hill Times online.



back to article Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM
Editor’s Note: Comments that appear on the site are not the opinion of The Hill Times. Personal attacks, name-calling, offensive language, and unsubstantiated allegations are not allowed.
For more information on our commenting policies, please see our Community Discussion Rules page. If you see a typo or error in a story, report it to us here news@hilltimes.com.

Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM

Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau by 29 per cent.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
In a new version of the findings released Thursday, the Toronto polling firm said Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) was favoured as the leader who would make the best prime minister by more respondents, 29 per cent, than either Mr. Harper  (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) or Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), who actually placed third.
In the latest release, Forum Research corrected the percentage of support its earlier statement said Mr. Mulcair had received from NDP supporters and the percentage of support Mr. Trudeau had received from Liberal party supporters.
The two percentages had been inadvertently reversed in the Jan. 18 preparation of the news release, which mistakenly said Mr. Trudeau was selected as the leader who would make the best prime minister by only eight per cent of voters who supported the Liberal party.
The release mistakenly said Mr. Mulcair was selected by 65 per cent of the voters who said they were leaning toward or intended to vote Liberal. Mr. Mulcair was actually preferred by only eight per cent of Liberal supporters.
It was Mr. Trudeau who was preferred by 65 per cent of Liberal supporters, while 53 per cent of NDP supporters said Mr. Mulcair would make the best prime minister.
Those errors in transferring the poll data to the news release led to the overall incorrect ranking of the three leaders.
Mr. Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while Mr. Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent of the respondents.
Mr. Mulcair’s support rose slightly, by two percentage points, from the previous Forum poll on the topic, while Mr. Harper’s support dropped by two percentage points and Mr. Trudeau’s support remained the same over the month.
The Hill Times reported on the original poll results in a Jan. 23 online story entitled, “Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll.”
The mistake was brought to light on Thursday by Éric Grenier, founder of the polling analysis web site ThreeHundredEight.com.

  

Parliamentary Calendar
Sunday, March 29, 2015
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Broadbent Institute Progress Summit 2015 - Day 3 panels March 28, 2015

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Charles Taylor spoke about diversity, secularism and the path to an inclusive, progressive Quebec and Canada.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Charles Taylor did a Q&A with author Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Political philosopher Charles Taylor.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Toronto Star columnist Susan Delacourt moderated a panel called The Great Unravelling: Why It Matters How Canada has Become Less Democratic.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Kill the Messengers author Mark Bourrie spoke on a panel called The Great Unravelling: Why It Matters How Canada has Become Less Democratic.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Party of One author Mike Harris spoke on a panel called The Great Unravelling: Why It Matters How Canada has Become Less Democratic.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

University of Montreal's Frederic Merand spoke on a panel called The Great Unravelling: Why It Matters How Canada has Become Less Democratic.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Fair Vote Canada executive director Kelly Carmichael spoke on a panel called The Great Unravelling: Why It Matters How Canada has Become Less Democratic.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

The Great Unravelling: Why It Matters How Canada has Become Less Democratic panel: Kelly Carmichael, Frederic Merand, Michael Harris, Mark Bourrie and moderator Susan Delacourt.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Facebook's Kevin Chan, spoke about how Facebook can help power campaigns and engage Canadians.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Don Guy introduced the Great Debate panelists.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Armine Yalnizyan and Tom Clark, moderator of the Great Debate on Spending versus Austerity: Time to invest or cut?

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

The Great Debate on Spending versus Austerity: Time to invest or cut? panel: Monte Solberg, Philip Cross, Linda McQuaig, Armine Yalnizyan and Tom Clark.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Former Conservative Cabinet minister Monte Solberg, left, and former StatsCan chief analyst Philip Cross.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives economist Armine Yalnizyan.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

NDP Toronto Centre candidate and author Linda McQuaig.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

The Fikcle Mellennials? Progressive values and political engagement panel -- Millennial Project policy adviser David Kitching, Juno award-winning rapper and host of CBC's Q Shad, Toronto District School Board trustee Ausma Malik, University of Saskatchewan professor David McGrane and Macleans' Aaron Wherry.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Toronto District School Board trustee Ausma Malik.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

University of Saskatchewan political scientist David McGrane and Macleans' Aaron Wherry.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Juno award-winning rapper Shad, host of CBC's Q.

The Hill Times photograph by Bea Vongdouangchanh

Carbon progress: Paris and Beyond panelists Johanne Whitmore, Gerard Fuchs, moderator Mike De Souza, Coralie Deny, and Sidney Ribaux

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE