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Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM

Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau by 29 per cent.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
In a new version of the findings released Thursday, the Toronto polling firm said Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) was favoured as the leader who would make the best prime minister by more respondents, 29 per cent, than either Mr. Harper  (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) or Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), who actually placed third.
In the latest release, Forum Research corrected the percentage of support its earlier statement said Mr. Mulcair had received from NDP supporters and the percentage of support Mr. Trudeau had received from Liberal party supporters.
The two percentages had been inadvertently reversed in the Jan. 18 preparation of the news release, which mistakenly said Mr. Trudeau was selected as the leader who would make the best prime minister by only eight per cent of voters who supported the Liberal party.
The release mistakenly said Mr. Mulcair was selected by 65 per cent of the voters who said they were leaning toward or intended to vote Liberal. Mr. Mulcair was actually preferred by only eight per cent of Liberal supporters.
It was Mr. Trudeau who was preferred by 65 per cent of Liberal supporters, while 53 per cent of NDP supporters said Mr. Mulcair would make the best prime minister.
Those errors in transferring the poll data to the news release led to the overall incorrect ranking of the three leaders.
Mr. Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while Mr. Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent of the respondents.
Mr. Mulcair’s support rose slightly, by two percentage points, from the previous Forum poll on the topic, while Mr. Harper’s support dropped by two percentage points and Mr. Trudeau’s support remained the same over the month.
The Hill Times reported on the original poll results in a Jan. 23 online story entitled, “Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll.”
The mistake was brought to light on Thursday by Éric Grenier, founder of the polling analysis web site ThreeHundredEight.com.

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back to article Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM
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Forum Research amends poll results that put Mulcair as best potential PM

Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright
Prime Minister Stephen Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau by 29 per cent.

PARLIAMENT HILL—Forum Research has amended the results of a poll it released on Jan. 18 that said more respondents rated NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair as the leader who would make the best prime minister than those who selected either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
In a new version of the findings released Thursday, the Toronto polling firm said Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) was favoured as the leader who would make the best prime minister by more respondents, 29 per cent, than either Mr. Harper  (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) or Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), who actually placed third.
In the latest release, Forum Research corrected the percentage of support its earlier statement said Mr. Mulcair had received from NDP supporters and the percentage of support Mr. Trudeau had received from Liberal party supporters.
The two percentages had been inadvertently reversed in the Jan. 18 preparation of the news release, which mistakenly said Mr. Trudeau was selected as the leader who would make the best prime minister by only eight per cent of voters who supported the Liberal party.
The release mistakenly said Mr. Mulcair was selected by 65 per cent of the voters who said they were leaning toward or intended to vote Liberal. Mr. Mulcair was actually preferred by only eight per cent of Liberal supporters.
It was Mr. Trudeau who was preferred by 65 per cent of Liberal supporters, while 53 per cent of NDP supporters said Mr. Mulcair would make the best prime minister.
Those errors in transferring the poll data to the news release led to the overall incorrect ranking of the three leaders.
Mr. Harper was actually selected by 25 per cent of the respondents as the leader who would make the best prime minister, while Mr. Mulcair was selected by 19 per cent of the respondents.
Mr. Mulcair’s support rose slightly, by two percentage points, from the previous Forum poll on the topic, while Mr. Harper’s support dropped by two percentage points and Mr. Trudeau’s support remained the same over the month.
The Hill Times reported on the original poll results in a Jan. 23 online story entitled, “Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll.”
The mistake was brought to light on Thursday by Éric Grenier, founder of the polling analysis web site ThreeHundredEight.com.

  

Parliamentary Calendar
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Parliament Buildings' multi-billion-dollar renovation and construction: in photographs, by Liban Mohamed Sept. 23, 2014

The Hill Times photograph courtesy of Liban Mohamed

Third year civil engineering student, Liban Mohamed, a co-op student with Public Works this summer, tweeted this photo from the West Block. This is the excavation work to construct the West Block's portion of the new underground Visitors' Welcome Centre.

The Hill Times photograph courtesy of Liban Mohamed

Workers loading a fixture onto a construction elevator destined to top a chimney on the West Block's Mackenzie Tower.

The Hill Times photograph courtesy of Liban Mohamed

The secret staircase inside the Mackenzie Tower is named after Alexander Mackenzie, Canada's second prime minister. Mackenzie, whose office was in West Block, was apparently leery of lobbyists and used the secret staircase as an escape route.

The Hill Times photograph courtesy of Liban Mohamed

Copper roofing and metal vents near the top of the West Block's Mackenzie Tower, named after Alexander Mackenzie, Canada's second prime minister and first Liberal prime minister. Mackenzie, who was in office from 1873 to 1878, had his office in West Block. The Mackenzie Tower, the building's tallest tower, also to be completely dismantled and rebuilt as part of the restoration work.

The Hill Times photograph courtesy of Liban Mohamed

Small copper-rimmed windows set to be installed on the West Block's Mackenzie Tower. The West Block is one of four Parliament Buildings under construction as part of the Public Works' multi-billion-dollar rehabilitation project. It's expected to cost $2.64-billion by 2018. West Block's renovation is expected to cost $863-million and is expected to be completed in 2018.

The Hill Times photograph courtesy of Liban Mohamed

A worker wearing rubber gloves for protection is pictured cleaning West Block masonry with a toothbrush.

The Hill Times photograph courtesy of Liban Mohamed

A rooftop view of the West Block's courtyard, which is currently being excavated for construction of the $115-million glass-domed infill that will be the temporary home to the House Chamber beginning in 2018.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE