PARLIAMENT HILL—A Quebec public opinion poll that brought the NDP bad news during its winter caucus Wednesday also contained a finding that could shed light on recent Conservative sabre-rattling over the prospect that interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae may have eyes on becoming the party’s new permanent leader.

The CROP poll published by La Presse newspaper on Wednesday showed the NDP plunging to only 29 per cent of decided Quebec voters from the party’s election high last May of 42.9 per cent, a bucket of cold water for the party as interim Leader Nicole Turmel (Hull-Aylmer, Que.) attempted to put a bold front on her caucus following the defection of one of its rookie Quebec MPs to Mr. Rae (Toronto Centre, Ont.) and the Liberal Party earlier this month.

But the poll, as emphasized by La Presse, showed the Liberal Party climbing to 19 per cent of decided voter support, up significantly from the meagre 14.2 per cent share of votes it received in the province last May.

And, as unsettling to the NDP as the Conservatives, the CROP sample of 1,000 voters found Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) and Mr. Rae, interim leader since last May 30, virtually tied in terms of who Quebecer voters believe to be the best person to lead Canada—Mr. Rae at 19 per cent support compared to Mr. Harper at support from 20 per cent of the respondents.

New Democrats appeared to be unsettled by the poll results as they rallied around Ms. Turmel with scripted applause and shouts during a fiery speech she gave Wednesday on Parliament Hill, setting the stage for the party’s strategy in advance of Parliament’s resumption on Jan. 30 after a two-month winter break.

NDP MP Francois Boivin (Gatineau, Que.) told The Hill Times the party can hold on to its 58 remaining Quebec seats—following former NDP MP Lise St. Denis’s (Saint Maurice-Champlain, Que.) defection to the Liberals—even if its ranking MP, Thomas Mulcair (Outremont, Que.), fails in his bid to win the party helm at its party-wide leadership election next March.

Ms. Boivin said the candidate she is supporting, former party president Brian Topp, also has roots in Quebec and after years of helping to build the NDP in the province, can also connect with Quebec voters.

But Ms. Boivin said the NDP’s opponents in the province, notably the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois, would likely attempt to exploit the party’s position if its members reject Mr. Mulcair in favour of Mr. Topp or one of the other candidates.

“Our adversaries in Quebec would love, in case Thomas doesn’t win, to be able to create a rift,” Ms Boivin told The Hill Times. It’s always a case of creating a rift between Quebec and the rest of Canada.”

“I have already felt that part of the Bloc-media-oriented are already trying to, and the bloggers, and certain people on Twitter, and I know where they are from,” Ms. Boivin said. “They’re positioning in case the guy doesn’t win, so they can already the next day say, ‘Look Quebec, you see what you gain by electing 58 MPs, 59 at the [same] time, from Quebec?’ ”

“Who can gain more by it? It could be the Conservatives, it could be the Liberals also, but I don’t see it as much with the Liberals, because in Quebec, whatever they will say to you and spin with you, I’m sorry but they’re not yet there, in Gatineau, old Liberals are telling me, ‘Liberals are not getting back from sponsorship for a long, long time,’ ” said Ms. Boivin.

The CROP poll, however, was interpreted as a positive sign for the Liberals in the La Presse article, especially for Mr. Rae.

A right-wing lobby group, the National Citizens Coalition, last week targeted Mr. Rae in an attack ad posted on YouTube, warning that “Bob Rae is back” and criticized the economic and governmental problems Ontario faced when Mr. Rae was NDP premier from 1990 to 1995.

The head of the NCC, Peter Coleman, said the group produced the ad to warn Liberals against electing Mr. Rae as leader should he decide to enter the party’s leadership race, which has yet to begin.

But more than a half-dozen emails from Conservative supporters, including a Conservative who was an aide to former Conservative Premier Mike Harris, indicated that activists in the Conservative movement want to ensure Mr. Rae is branded as a “left-wing socialist” before he has a chance to enter, and possibly win, the Liberal leadership.

In the NDP camp, other MPs told The Hill Times on Monday that despite the latest developments and even should Mr. Mulcair lose the race, the party will be able to maintain its strength in Quebec, due in large part to the collapse of the Bloc Québécois and Quebec affection for former the late leader Jack Layton and his political and social policies.

Another one of the candidates, NDP MP Peggy Nash (Parkdale-High Park, Ont.), pointed out one of the party’s influential organizers in the province and a former leadership candidate himself in 2003, Pierre Ducasse, is backing her.

“Pierre Ducasse is supporting me because he believes that I am someone who can unite the party, who is a builder, who all my life has worked to defend the principles of social democracy and who is also a grassroots builder,” Ms. Nash told The Hill Times.

“I believe Quebecers will want to make sure, whoever is the next leader, that that person is someone who respects their right to self-determination, who respects their language, their history, their culture, but who can help them join in common cause with progressives right across Canada and replace in 2015, I believe that’s what Quebecers are looking for.”

tnaumetz@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times