PARLIAMENT HILL—Another prospective candidate for the NDP helm dropped out Monday as signs grew that the timetable to a likely January leadership vote will be too tight for Montreal MP Thomas Mulcair to mount a viable campaign, and will limit the entire contest to a tightly scripted sprint compared to the seven-month marathon that elected Jake Layton in 2003.

As the field of potential candidates narrowed—with only party president Brian Topp, a former close aide to Mr. Layton, so far declaring he may contest the leadership—NDP Deputy House Leader Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh, Ont.), told The Hill Times it is likely the tight circle of party directors who will decide the rules and schedule for the leadership will apply deadlines similar to the final months of the contest that swept Mr. Layton into a first-ballot victory on Jan. 24, 2003.

The deadline for candidate registration could be as early as the end of September.

As decisions and party development began to rapidly take place following Mr. Layton's state funeral Saturday, Aug. 20, Mr. Topp’s status as a strong potential candidate grew noticeably.

Among other things, an NDP insider told The Hill Times he expects the field of candidates from the NDP caucus will be smaller, with other contenders from provincial politics and possibly one or two who are no longer in politics—such as former Toronto mayor David Miller.

Mr. Layton placed his wish for a leadership convention next January near the top of a letter dated last Saturday, two days before he died, that New Democrats said he wrote with the assistance of his wife, NDP MP Olivia Chow (Trinity-Spadina, Ont.), Mr. Topp and Mr. Layton’s principal secretary, Brad Lavigne.

“I would think given the timeline, they’re not going to be able to give the candidates a lot of time to make up their minds, if we stay with Jack’s recommendation to have the convention in January,” Mr. Comartin said. “I can’t imagine any significant opposition coming to anything that Jack recommended in that letter.”

Although Mr. Layton and several others, including Mr. Comartin, had registered as candidates as early as June and July, 2002, the deadline to take out party memberships and still qualify for voting was Dec. 10 that year, with an earlier deadline for candidate registration.

Mr. Comartin, touted as late as last week as a prospective candidate for the race to succeed Mr. Layton, told The Hill Times he will not be a candidate. An aid to former Manitoba premier Gary Doer told the Ottawa Citizen last week Doer won’t run.

And, with the likelihood that Mr. Topp may already enjoy an advantage, having been at the centre of Mr. Layton’s team of close strategists and organizers for the past three federal elections and at the centre of the private affairs as Mr. Layton’s health declined over the past month, another New Democrat insider told The Hill Times that, from the view within party circles, no individual MPs who would be natural contenders appear to have so far consolidated noticeable support from other members of the caucus.

Fifty-nine of the party’s 102 MPs represent Quebec ridings, but the insider said it is unlikely Mr. Mulcair would be able to cultivate significant support there, primarily because of his recent “heritage” as a provincial Liberal party member and Cabinet minister and also, as others have noted, because of his abrasive personality.

Quebec MP Françoise Boisvin (Gatineau, Que.) a former federal Liberal who has also been considered a prospective candidate from the province, may make an announcement one way or the other next week. The party has a caucus meeting scheduled to take place in Quebec City from Sept. 13 to 15.

Other possible candidates include Paul Dewar (Ottawa Centre, Ont.), the party’s chief foreign affairs critic and son of former Ottawa mayor Marion Dewar, who was one of the party’s most prominent MPs in Parliament. B.C. MP Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley, B.C.) has also been mentioned by fellow MPs, as have MP Charlie Angus (Timmins-James Bay, Ont.) and Megan Leslie (Halifax, N.S.).

Party brass, likely including Mr. Topp, has selected Rebecca Blaikie, the daughter of former NDP MP Bill Blaikie, to prepare recommendations for leadership rules to present to the party’s governing council. Ms. Blaikie was a candidate in the federal election last May and lost to Manitoba Liberal Kevin Lamoureux (Winnipeg North, Man.) by 117 votes.

She directed the party’s small Quebec wing previously and during the period when Mr. Mulcair left the provincial Liberals and won a byelection for the NDP in 2007, and Mr. Comartin said it is likely her recommendations will mirror the process that was used for the 2003 leadership.

Mr. Comartin said some candidates may believe they have more support among the party’s existing members, and therefore would want a membership deadline sooner rather than later. Other candidates, perhaps in a better financial situation, would want more time.

“The party on the other hand needs a fairly short period of time because they have to organize the all-candidates debates across the country and they need a reasonable amount of lead time in order to be able to do that and to conduct them well in advance of the vote,” said Mr. Comartin.

A New Democrat insider said it might be difficult for Mr. Mulcair to build support within Quebec among the small number of party members, but also in other provinces. The insider said that task might be easier for other high-profile members of the caucus who have established support in the areas they have covered in Parliament.

“If you look at the other members being talked about, Paul Dewar for instance would have a very significant cadre of people who at least know of him and respect him from the perspective of his international work, and that’s important to a lot of New Democrats across the country," the insider said

tnaumetz@hilltimes.com
The Hill Times