PARLIAMENT HILL—A campaign that has until now been on “auto-pilot” is suddenly turning into an electrifying run to the finish with a change so dramatic for the NDP that it could be in reach of becoming the official opposition, a Forum Research poll done in collaboration with The Hill Times suggests.

The NDP has made its largest gains in Quebec, with an astonishing surge past the Bloc Quebecois in decided and leaning voter support, but the party has also moved up in British Columbia, and Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where a rise in support can turn into new House of Commons seats for the party.

“This race has been on auto-pilot for three weeks, now we have some action and movement,” said Forum Research President Lorne Bozinoff, adding that NDP Leader Jack Layton’s performance in both the French and English televised debates last week likely started the groundswell, particularly in Quebec.

“It was probably sparked by the debate, and has continued to grow,” Mr. Bozinoff told The Hill Times.

With support for the Liberal Party declining nationally, and dropping also in Ontario as well as Quebec, the poll found decided and leaning preference for the Conservative Party increasing in Ontario, notably in the Greater Toronto Area, one of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s target areas as he attempts to close in on the majority government he’s set as the party’s target in this election.

“The Tories are ahead everywhere except Quebec, it’s all going to come down to what happens in Quebec,” says Mr. Bozinoff, noting the tradition of Quebec voters to move en masse when they have sharply changed preferences in past elections.

The survey of 2,727 voting-age Canadians was conducted Wednesday evening. It was an interactive voice response survey with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 per cent 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for regional and provincial breakdowns is slightly higher, but in such a large survey, with 348 citizens reached in the GTA alone, it is a reliable indicator of election trend lines.

Nationally, the survey gave the Conservative Party support from 36 per cent of decided and leaning voters, 25 per cent for the NDP, 23 per cent for the Liberal party, and six per cent each for the Green Party and the Bloc Québécois. A separate Forum Research analysis, based partly on ridings won and lost in the 2008 election, suggest the survey results would give the Conservatives 149 of the 308 Commons seats if an election were held today, with 71 seats for the NDP, 64 for the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois would have 24 seats.

The poll also mined attitudes on one of the most controversial aspects of this election—an endless barrage of television attack ads—and found evidence the ads have affected voter opinion, although not in the way the two main parties may have expected.

Fully 88 per cent of those surveyed indicated they had seen some campaign ads on television.

Significantly, 26 per cent said they felt the NDP has had the best ads, followed by 23 per cent favouring Conservative ads and 14 per cent who said Liberal ads were best.

Fully 12 per cent of the respondents said they had a change of heart and switched voting preferences after seeing some of the ads. There, the NDP enjoyed the largest gain in support, from 19 per cent who favoured the party before seeing television ads to 31 per cent after seeing TV ads. The Conservative party showed the largest loss, from 26 per cent to 14 per cent among voters whose minds changed after seeing some of the television ads.

“These results, coupled with the steady rise in support for the NDP, suggest its ad campaign may be providing a lift in support,” said Mr. Bozinoff.

In Quebec, Mr. Layton’s native province, the poll found NDP support has mushroomed to 34 per cent, with the Bloc Québécois second at 25 per cent, the Liberals at 18 per cent, the Conservatives registering as a preference for 16 per cent of voters and the Green Party with four per cent.

“This has got the tinge of a mini-referendum on federalism,” said Mr. Bozinoff, who predicted there is little doubt the Bloc Québécois, sharing a common support base with the Parti Québécois, will “pull out all the stops” in the final 10 days before the May 2 election.

In Ontario, the Conservatives received support from 42 per cent, the Liberals were second, but with support from only 28 per cent, and the NDP was third, with 20-per-cent support from decided and leaning voters. The Green Party came in with support from eight per cent of the respondents in the 106-seat province.

The survey gave the Conservatives 43-per-cent support in the GTA, with the Liberal slipping to 25 per cent, its lowest level of support in the seat-rich urban region since Forum Research began its tracking the weekend Mr. Harper called the election.

In British Columbia, where NDP growth can eat away at both the Conservatives and the Liberals, the party’s support has crept up to 31 per cent. The Conservatives are in first place in the province, with 38 per cent, and the Liberals lag at 19 per cent. The Green party received support from seven per cent of those who were reached in B.C.

The Conservatives retain their lock on Alberta, with 58 per cent support, and the other parties behind at levels under 20 per cent. But in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives lead with 45 per cent, the NDP is second with 25 per cent, and the Liberals statistically tied at 23 per cent. In that province, if NDP growth continues, the party could win back at least one or two of the seats it held up to 2004.

In the Atlantic, the Forum Research survey found the Conservatives and Liberals in a virtual tie, with 33 per cent and 32 per cent support respectively. But the poll found the NDP not far back, at 22 per cent, and the Green Party at nine per cent.

tnaumetz@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times