PARLIAMENT HILL—The “way is open” for Prime Minister Stephen Harper to win a majority, a Forum Research nationwide poll following the televised leaders’ debates suggests.

But the big winner from the debates in the short run is NDP Leader Jack Layton—at the expense of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff and his party, the Forum Research poll of 2,241 Canadians found.

The exclusive Forum poll, prepared in collaboration with The Hill Times, indicates the two nights of debates could go down as a landmark event for the campaign with only two weeks to go.

The survey that rolled through evening hours last night from Newfoundland and Labrador to the West Coast shows the debates were keenly watched as voters begin to make up their minds.

Three-quarters of the poll respondents said they watched all or part of the debates, with an average nationally of four in 10, more in Quebec, saying the two-hour standoffs in English and French would influence their vote.

The NDP gain will likely increase Mr. Harper’s chances for a majority if it holds through the home stretch of the campaign and takes votes away from the Liberals, said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

“The Conservatives are a few points short of a majority, and they have two weeks to get it,” Mr. Bozinoff told The Hill Times. “This has all along been about 20 to 30 key ridings, and it could come down to organization, and getting out the vote. The way is open for the Tories to get their majority.”

The poll of voter preferences nationally for the four main parties and the Green Party showed the NDP was the only party to significantly gain ground since the results of the last Forum Research poll conducted April 5 and April 6, edging up to 22 per cent support from the 20 per cent in the earlier poll.

The Conservatives received 36 per cent support from decided and leaning voters, down from 38 per cent in the last Forum Research survey. The Liberal  support was down to 25 per cent from 26 per cent, the Green Party down to eight per cent from nine, and the Bloc Québécois down to seven per cent from eight per cent. In less reliable regional results, the Bloc Québécois was down to 27 per cent from 30 per cent, well below its normal support in Quebec.

The support findings for the NDP have not been higher since the free-trade election of 1988—when the NDP under leader Ed Broadbent won 43 Commons seats with 20.38 per cent of the vote.

Favourable impressions of Mr. Layton’s debate performances, while second to Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe in the French-language debate and second to Mr. Harper in the English debate, were well ahead of Mr. Ignatieff in both debates and resonated more with Quebec voters than Mr. Harper in the French debate.

Mr. Ignatieff, whose at times spirited but sometimes unsteady performance in the debates has already been marked, was rated a distant third in the English debate and fourth in the French-language debate.

Of Canadians who watched all or part of the English language debate, 39 per cent thought Mr. Harper performed the best, followed by Mr. Layton at 31 per cent, Mr. Ignatieff at 15 per cent and Mr. Duceppe at three per cent. In the French-language debate, 40 per cent found Mr. Duceppe performed the best, followed by Mr. Layton at 23 per cent, Mr. Harper at only 14 per cent and Mr. Ignatieff last at 12 per cent.

Despite Mr. Harper’s ratings in the English debate, the poll found Mr. Harper’s strategic tactic of looking directly into the television cameras rather than facing his opponents had an unsettling effect on the several million Canadians who viewed the debates—fully 50 per cent found it “annoying.”

With images and views on the debates settled in, 33 per cent of respondents found Mr. Harper would make the best Prime Minister, down from 36 per cent in the last Forum Research poll. Mr. Layton was second at 22 per cent, up from 20 per cent in the last poll, while a preference for Mr. Ignatieff as Prime Minister dropped to 18 per cent from 20 per cent. Mr. Duceppe was selected by five per cent, down from six per cent, and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, who was kept out of the debates after secret discussions among the four main parties and the broadcast consortium that hosted the events,  was preferred as best Prime Minister by six per cent of respondents, up one per cent from the last Research Forum survey.

The debate did not appear to influenced voter opinion on the way the government is handling what Mr. Harper has claimed is the main concern of Canadians today—the economy and job creation. Sixty-one cent approved of the way the government is handling the issue.

But 50 per cent of the respondents approved of the government’s ability to provide open, transparent and ethical government.

An analysis of the poll findings showed that if the election were held today, the Conservatives would win 143 Commons seats, the Liberals 76, the Bloc Québécois 45 and the NDP 44. Because those projections are based partly on the seats won and lost in the 2008 election, they do not include the Green Party.

Regionally, the poll found the NDP up in all regions but Quebec, where it held steady at 23 per cent support. In Ontario, the NDP received support from 21 per cent of voters, up from 17 per cent in the last Forum poll. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where it might affect the outcome in up to two or three ridings, NDP support increased to 24 per cent from 20.

Mr. Harper has a major rally scheduled in Saskatoon tonight, where at least one seat is being closely contested by his party and the NDP.

The Forum Research poll has a margin of error of 2.2 per cent 19 times out of 20.

tnaumetz@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times