PARLIAMENT HILL—Controversies over Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s transparency and government accountability have struck a chord with voters as significant election concerns, a new poll suggests.

The poll conducted by Forum Research of Toronto exclusively for The Hill Times found only 19 per cent of voters believe Mr. Harper has been “very open and willing” to answer media questions during the campaign, 65 per cent rank making the government more accountable to Parliament as a “very important” election issue, second only to the economy and job creation.

The poll of 2,000 voters was conducted this past Tuesday and Wednesday, as Mr. Harper continued to face criticism over his refusal to take more than five questions a day on his campaign tour, and after the controversial ejection of 19-year-old university student Awish Aslam and a friend from one of Mr. Harper’s campaign events in London, Ont.

The Forum Research survey found Conservative support at 38 per cent nationally, down from 41 per cent in a poll the firm conducted March 26 and 27, the first two days of the campaign. The Liberals had support from 26 per cent of voters, up from 24 per cent at the start, with the NDP up slightly to 20 per cent from 19 per cent.

The Green Party received nine-per-cent, up marginally from eight per cent at the opening of the campaign and Bloc Québécois support in Quebec registered at eight per cent in the national findings, down from 10 per cent in the first two days after Mr. Harper asked Governor General David Johnston to dissolve Parliament following his government’s defeat on a confidence motion in the House of Commons.

But the opinion of voters about Mr. Harper’s unwillingness to be more open during the campaign and the overwhelming view that the government should be more accountable to Parliament stood out among the poll’s findings on a range of issues, said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research.

Coming as it did on the campaign incident in London, Conservative control over campaign events may also have had an effect on the views of voters. Conservative organizers barred Ms. Aslam because the party found a photo of her alongside Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff on her Facebook page. Mr. Harper apologized on Thursday, three days after Conservative organizers escorted Ms. Aslam out of the London event.

“It’s starting to come back to why we’re having the election,” Mr. Bozinoff told The Hill Times. “The whole issue of contempt was the whole premise of this election, that’s very high for what would normally be an insider-type of issue. That’s what’s so important about the question about being open with the media, because the whole thing was about openness in the first place, it was part of it, they’re linked, and not in a good way for the government, for the Tories.”

A controversy over the government’s refusal to willingly disclose hundreds of millions of dollars in cost forecasts for a range of crime bills raged in the Commons for two weeks prior to the election call. An opposition majority on the Procedure and House Affairs Committee, the guardian of MPs’ rights in the Commons, found the government in contempt of Parliament over the affair, following a ruling by House Speaker Peter Milliken that the government’s refusal to be open with MPs was likely a violation of their privilege as Parliamentarians.

But the issue was eclipsed soon after the campaign began, as Mr. Ignatieff was forced into a defensive position in the face of claims from Mr. Harper that the Liberal leader is secretly planning to form a coalition with the NDP, supported by the Bloc Québécois, if the election is not decisive.

The survey findings indicate that despite a strong concern over government accountability, Mr. Harper’s attempts over the past several years to soften his image may have helped him, at least compared to the other leaders.

More respondents to the Forum Research poll thought he would be a better dinner companion than those who wanted to dine alone with each of the other leaders.

Asked which leader they would prefer to have dinner with, if they could dine with just one of them, 32 per cent chose Mr. Harper, 23 per cent chose Mr. Layton, and only 15 per cent chose Mr. Ignatieff.

Dining alone appeared to be a better choice than sitting down with a politician for 15 per cent of voters, who selected “none of them” as their option.

Asked which of the leaders they thought would make the best Prime Minister, 36 per cent chose Mr. Harper, 20 per cent favoured Mr. Ignatieff, 20 per cent Mr. Layton, while Mr. Duceppe was selected by six per cent and five per cent said Green Party Leader Elizabeth May.

On the issue of Mr. Harper’s “bubble” campaign with restricted media access, 32 per cent of respondents said they found Mr. Harper “somewhat open and willing” to answer media questions, 38 per cent found him “not at all” open and willing and 12 per cent were not sure.

With just over three weeks left to voting day, the number of voters who are engaged in the election could be significant. The survey found fully 50 per cent were “very interested” in the election and 30 per cent were “somewhat interested.”

Twenty-seven cent of respondents said the war in Afghanistan was a “very important” issue for the election, and 36 per cent said it was somewhat significant.  Fifty seven per cent ranked the environment as a very important election issue, and 31 per cent said it was somewhat important.

Mr. Bozinoff said the Conservative decline nationally is significant, with other recent polls also showing similar findings, and it suggests the coalition attack may have been more effective in the opening days of the campaign.

“I wouldn’t say they’ve peaked, but when we did the first poll it was right when the writ was dropped, I think they had a good day, and Ignatieff had problems explaining the coalition issue,” he said.

The survey, which was done this past Tuesday April 5 and Wednesday April 6 and has a margin of error of 2.2 per cent 19 times out of 20, with slightly less reliability in regional and local breakdowns, found the Conservatives with 42 per cent support in Ontario, compared to 33 per cent for the Liberals and 17 per cent for the NDP. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois was leading with 27 per cent, down from its traditional share of voter support, while the Liberals and NDP both received support from 23 per cent of voters and the Conservatives lagged at 20 per cent.

In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals and Conservatives were in a virtual dead heat, with the Liberals slightly ahead at 33 per cent, the Conservatives at 31 per cent and the NDP at 28 per cent. The Green Party had its strongest support in Alberta and B.C, where they registered 14 and 13 per cent respectively, similar to the party’s strong showing across those two provinces in the 2008 election.

The Conservatives had healthy leads against the other three parties in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but the race was closer in B.C., with the Conservatives at 38 per cent and the Liberals and NDP each with 24 per cent support.

It might not help Ms. May, but 50 per cent of voters favoured her inclusion in the leaders’ debates next week. Only 28 per cent opposed her inclusion, and 22 per cent had no opinion.

A significant number, 50 per cent, favoured a one-on-one debate between Mr. Harper and Mr. Ignatieff, in addition to the scheduled debates next week involving all four leaders.

tnaumetz@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times