A prominent political scientist with ties to Alberta has backed a leading pollster's observation that Citizenship and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney has dropped from sight since Prime Minister Stephen Harper ruled the government would scrap the long form of the national census—which for the past 40 years has gathered crucial information for minority populations in Canada.

University of Ottawa professor Michael Behiels told The Hill Times there is little doubt Mr. Kenney (Calgary Southeast, Alta.) is "fuming" over the decision, which, combined with the Conservative government's inflammatory statements about Tamil migrants on the MV Sun Sea, could undermine the four years of work Mr. Kenney has devoted to cultivating party contacts and support within the immigrant and visible minority community.

"He must be just fuming. He has spent every waking hour of the last four years working on that," Prof. Behiels said, arguing that, based on information from contacts in his former home province of Alberta, Mr. Kenney may have lost to Mr. Harper in a standoff over whether the party should abandon its outreach to visible minorities or risk losing support from core supporters in Alberta and other western provinces.

A spokesperson for Mr. Kenney, following an earlier Hill Times report about Mr. Kenney's absence in the census debate, denied Mr. Kenney opposes the census move but he also failed to respond to a request from The Hill Times for an interview with Mr. Kenney.

In a series of email exchanges, Alykhan Velshi, Mr. Kenney's communications director, said the Citizenship and Immigration Minister supports his government's census decision and that claims he is unhappy with the measure are "totally, completely and utterly wrong."

"The basis of your original query was a made-up rumour that Minister Kenney was uncomfortable with the government's position on the census," Mr. Velshi said in his final email on the subject last week. "Minister Kenny's view is that Canadians shouldn't be imprisoned or fined for refusing to answer intrusive or personal questions. That's his position. He not only supports, but enthusiastically supports, the decision the government made."

In another email, Mr. Velshi said, "Minister Kenney does not believe it's the government's business to know how many bedrooms someone has in their home, or whether it's in need of repairs." However, he avoided answering a question inquiring about Mr. Kenney's views on eliminating census questions that are used to estimate Canada's immigrant population and visible minorities in cities, towns and districts across the country. Statistics Canada also uses the information to produce profiles of all 308 federal electoral districts that include immigrant and visible minority populations for each district.

Experts have told The Hill Times the information from the long form of the census is crucial for funding and continuation of a range of federal programs for multicultural groups across the country. The data is also required for implementation of policies that ensure compliance with employment equity components of human rights legislation and equitable representation of minorities on federal, provincial and local public service boards and agencies. The government has already added questions about use of French and English to the short form of the census to comply with legal requirements under the Official Languages Act and the Charter of Rights, and Prof. Behiels said it may have to one day respond under another Charter section that requires protection and enhancement of Canada's multicultural heritage.

The census information about visible minorities is also important for political parties during election campaigns and between elections, as voters from minority groups in Vancouver and Toronto, and to a certain extent Montreal, can influence results in dozens of close contests. Historically, the Liberal Party has attracted more support than the Conservative Party from minority voters in those districts, and Mr. Kenney's work on the party's "outreach" program since 2006 was intended to reverse that trend.

The Conservative strategy followed a major study of the results of the 2004 election that found although the Liberal Party, on the heels of the Liberal sponsorship scandal, lost support from visible minorities during that election, the support went to the NDP rather than the Conservatives under Mr. Harper.

The government privately attacked EKOS Pollster Frank Graves last week after he stated Mr. Kenny must be upset with Prime Minister Harper's census tactic and told The Hill Times his polling data shows the Conservative outreach strategy has not worked.

Despite the Conservative outburst, a professor at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ont., agreed voter polling data following the 2008 federal election suggests the Conservative appeal to visible minority voters has not succeeded to a large degree. Andrea Perrella, director of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy, said the poll suggested the Conservatives continued to trail both the Liberal Party and the NDP in support from visible minority populations.

Prof. Behiels said he keeps up close contact with friends and relatives in Alberta, where he grew up, and friends tell him Mr. Kenney's advances toward visible minorities was not sitting well with the Conservative Party's base in the province.

"I think in fact he was making some headway and having to make certain compromises, which was not going down very well with the hard core," said Prof. Behiels. "Talking to Albertans on a regular basis, many of them are very angry at the Harper government and what he [Prime Minister Harper] has managed to do, or not do, to date."

That perspective of the mood of Alberta Conservatives, appears to be significant, considering the government's initiatives on a series of policies over the past two years, including crime, imprisonment and Prime Minister Harper's refusal to include funding for abortion in his international maternal health initiative as well as the government's aggressive response to the Tamil migrants. It suggests the census decision may also stem in part from Prime Minister Harper's need to maintain support from core supporters.

Prof. Behiels said he believes Mr. Kenney would have supported the maintenance of the long form census because of its importance for visible minority communities, and also may have lost a wider battle to continue trying to woo those voters.

"I think Kenny was arguing 'well, we can lose quite a few votes in Alberta and still get all the seats and if we can pick up a few seats in Vancouver and Toronto, that will offset any loss of votes in Alberta or the West, we won't lose seats,'" said Prof. Behiels. "'We may stand to gain some in southwestern British Columbia and southwestern Ontario.' I think Kenney is still of that belief, but he gets displaced in all of this debate by [Public Safety Minister Vic] Toews, on the boat people from Sri Lanka, and Kenney is nowhere to be seen."

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