The tide has turned on Prime Minister Stephen Harper since he began a summer jammed with major events he hoped would lead to rising support for his party and—had all gone as planned—a possible snap election in the fall.

In the aftermath of negative publicity over the G-8 and G-20 summits, the spectacular public relations disaster over what should have been just another routine census, and the sobering loss of nearly 140,000 jobs in the Canadian economy in July, pollsters and politicians say the only running Prime Minister Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) might want to do over the next two months is away from a call to the polls.

"He is going to think about it," said Strategic Counsel pollster Tim Woolstencroft. "My estimate is he's not going to call an election because he's going to ultimately say, 'Is the risk worth the potential of losing seats and just having a much weaker minority, and potentially losing your government?'"

Despite a Harris Decima poll conducted in late July that suggested the government may have dodged a bullet over the fury of protest over its decision to axe the long form of next year's census, and a last minute effort to repair damage by adding crucial language components to the surviving short form, other public opinion surveys suggest Conservative support, though it may not be spiraling down, has been sliding.

The banner on an Angus Reid poll last week said "Liberal Party inches closer to Conservatives" as the firm reported the Conservatives at 33 per cent support from decided voters, with Liberals at 29 per cent, the NDP at 19 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 10 per cent and the Green Party at nine per cent. That followed an EKOS poll done in late July and the first few days of August showing the Conservatives leading with only 29.7 per cent, compared to 28.5 per cent for the Liberals, with the other parties trailing.

Liberal MP Paul Szabo (Mississauga South, Ont.), though building up his own war chest for a potential campaign, featuring Liberal MP Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) at a fundraiser last week, says Prime Minister Harper may have meant it when he claimed his newly shuffled cabinet was intent at getting back to work this fall to avoid what he called an "unnecessary election."

"He's got a lot of land mines out there," said Mr. Szabo. "I would think that he wouldn't want one, I wouldn't say that he's afraid of an election, but there's only so many times you can run and get a minority, and his numbers don't show a majority. If I were to have to speculate what his feelings would be, it would not be his first choice."

Critics say the government's sudden decision to mitigate some of the damage from the census furor may have been just a first step in an attempt to reverse the opinion poll trends. However, they also say reinstatement of questions about use of the English and French languages at home into the mandatory short form of the census, and the accompanying announcement it plans legislation to eliminate jail as a potential penalty for failure to fill out the questionnaire, will not solve the Prime Minister's problem on that issue.

"This debate is not going to go away," said Mr. Woolstencroft, whose own firm, like all other major polling firms in Canada, has depended on the mandatory long form of the census every five years as a grounding board to confirm the reliability of its own survey findings.

Though Industry Minister Tony Clement (Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ont.) seized on a response from the National Statistics Council welcoming the government decision to include language questions in the short form, in the face of Federal Court action by a national lobby group advocating minority francophone rights, the statement released by the council's chair also contained indications the fight is not over. Council chairman Ian McKinnon pointed out Mr. Clement had failed to consult with the council, which the government itself appointed as an advisory group for Mr. Clement on issues relating to Statistics Canada. He also made it clear the council wants the government to reinstate the mandatory longer questionnaire as part of the survey.

"A voluntary survey will not be able to fulfill the fundamental needs of a national statistical system," said Mr. McKinnon, adding the $30-million price tag to implement the expanded voluntary form is substantial "and will yield less accurate or useful information."

The head of the Statistical Society of Canada also said Mr. Clement's tweaks—though significant—are not enough to repair the damage.

"Far from it," said society president Don McLeish.

"It's not exactly a conversion on the road to Damascus, it's maybe the first 100 metres down the road to Damascus. It's essentially a tacit admission that the voluntary national housing survey wouldn't provide the kind of information required by the Official Languages Act and wouldn't stand up in court."

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