If Helena Guergis runs as an Independent in her riding of Simcoe-Grey, Ont., in the next election, it could split Conservative Party support and hand the seat over to the Liberals, say concerned Tory organizers.

But, despite the worries ex-pressed in a survey of the party's riding association membership, Ms. Guergis failed in a last-minute campaign to be brought back into the party's Parliamentary fold last week as Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) prepared for his summer caucus meeting with MPs and Senators, party insiders say.

One MP said the topic "did not come up" after Ms. Guergis arranged a viewing earlier in the week for a journalist in her riding of a security video at the Charlottetown airport she claims shows one of the events leading to her ouster from cabinet and the Conservative caucus last April was trumped up.

The Canadian Air Transport Security Authority video, which had already been viewed by CBC television news anchor Peter Mansbridge soon after Mr. Harper ejected Ms. Guergis from the party's caucus, appears to contradict claims from airport employees that Ms. Guergis had a temper tantrum and swore at Air Canada and security personnel when she faced delays and screening requirements while boarding a flight last February.

Collingwood Enterprise-Bulletin reporter and editor Morgan Ian Adams viewed the video at a special screening Ms. Guergis arranged at the air security authority's offices at Pearson International Airport only two days prior to the Conservative caucus session. Under privacy laws and the authority's policies, videos of passengers in similar situations may be viewed only with the consent of the passengers involved.

"At no point during the three-and-a-half minutes does Guergis appear angry or rude, nor—in spite of the lack of audio—does she appear to yell at anyone," Mr. Adams wrote in his Enterprise-Bulletin report of the viewing.

Mr. Adams acknowledged the video he saw is limited to the airport's security screening area, while the description of Ms. Guergis' actions that night includes references to shouting and angry outbursts at both the ticket counter area and the pre-boarding room.

Mr. Adams told The Hill Times that while Prime Minister Harper and senior party organizers have ignored claims from Ms. Guergis she was given no reasons for her caucus expulsion, local riding officials distributed a letter obtained by the Enterprise-Bulletin that asks party members if they are concerned her candidacy as an Independent would hurt the party's chances of holding on to the riding in an election.

The survey of riding association members was written by association vice-president Paul Shaw and included in a summer newsletter.

"Board members are becoming increasingly concerned that there may be a split vote in our Electoral District Assocation of 'Conservative' voters," Shaw wrote, saying it now appears official Ms. Guergis will not be able to vie for the party's candidacy. Mr. Shaw invited members to express their opinions about the danger and said the views will be forwarded to Conservative headquarters.

"I know she has a lot of support from Conservatives in the riding," said Mr. Adams. "They only expelled her from caucus, they didn't take her membership card and tear it up."

Even so, party insider Tim Powers told The Hill Times he believes it is unlikely Prime Minster Harper will change his mind despite an RCMP finding there were no grounds to investigate Ms. Guergis over alleged lobbying activities by her husband, former Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer. Prime Minister Harper also referred Ms. Guergis's case to federal Ethics Commissioner Mary Dawson, who has not concluded her inquiry.

"I think she has to accept she made her bed and she is going to have to lie in it," Mr. Powers said. "Part of lying in this bed means there are no doors opening to her, I don't think, for her return to the Conservative caucus."

Mr. Powers also discounted the reports of concern among Conservatives over a loss of votes to Ms. Guergis if she runs as an Independent.

"She's got a big family, and I'm sure she has other people who support her, but again she has to think not only of what's best for her, which I think was some of the motivation that got her into trouble in the past, but what's best for her riding and the province of Ontario in general," Mr. Powers said.

Conservative MP Dean Del Mastro (Peterborough, Ont.) said he believes "the decision that was made was final," and noted that Ms. Guergis did not have to necessarily run as a Conservative in the next election.

"Look, we removed [former Conservative] Garth Turner from caucus and we won the seat," he said. "We passed the Accountability Act, we believe that our members should hold a certain standard and a determination was made that Ms. Guergis wasn't keeping that standard. If that means that people who voted Conservative in the riding the last time might not vote Conservative next time because we have high standards for our MPs, I would be surprised."

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The Hill Times